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  MI-PPP: Hillary defeats GOP with ease
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Tender Branson
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« on: March 08, 2013, 01:22:33 pm »

Q26 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q27 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 52%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_308.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2013, 01:26:58 pm »

If we compare this poll with the national Quinnipiac poll from yesterday, it would actually make MI about 1-2% more GOP than the nation, while it was D+5 in 2012.

Could be MoE movement though ...
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Obamanation
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2013, 02:30:46 pm »

If we compare this poll with the national Quinnipiac poll from yesterday, it would actually make MI about 1-2% more GOP than the nation, while it was D+5 in 2012.

Could be MoE movement though ...

Also, PPP has had some fairly R-friendly results as of late (certainly in terms of Obama approval rating). I can almost guarantee that Hillary's national margins in PPP polling will be smaller than the Quinnipiac ones.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2013, 04:59:20 pm »

If we compare this poll with the national Quinnipiac poll from yesterday, it would actually make MI about 1-2% more GOP than the nation, while it was D+5 in 2012.

Could be MoE movement though ...

PPP's last national poll had Clinton with a narrower national lead over both Rubio and Ryan than Quinnipiac did.  In any case, even if you think the national margin is lower than Quinnipiac has it, I think it's still a bit of a trend towards the GOP in this poll, relative to 2012.  Which supports my theory that 2016 Clinton vs. X isn't just a straightforward uniform swing towards the Dems everywhere, but instead would have some of the more R states trend D and some of the more D states trend R, to bring everything closer to the national average.....or at least that the South would trend strongly D, and the shifts in the rest of the country would be more muted:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169681.msg3634657#msg3634657
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2013, 05:09:02 pm »

Remember how Romney was supposed to win Michigan?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2013, 11:46:31 pm »

The approval rating for President Obama has dropped significantly in Michigan, which may reflect the nationwide trend. . 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2013, 12:57:04 pm »

I'm starting to wonder if we're seeing the end of the urban/rural split. If the rural areas go the way the urban areas did in the 2000s, that's the end of the GOP.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2013, 09:57:12 am »

I'm starting to wonder if we're seeing the end of the urban/rural split. If the rural areas go the way the urban areas did in the 2000s, that's the end of the GOP.

Obama did badly in farm or ranch areas in Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado and still won those states in 2008 and all but two of those states in 2012 . One of the strongest determiners of where Obama won and lost was of all things population density. Something like 65 counties and independent cities -- the most densely-populated such places -- in America made the difference between an Obama win or loss, at least in the popular vote. Of course those include such places as Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, Lucas, Mahoning, and Summit Counties in Ohio -- and greater Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown, and Akron.

Barack Obama may be the definitive urban and suburban politician -- but utterly incompetent in crafting successful appeals to rural voters. Maybe Republicans have been successful at winning Protestant fundamentalists heavily concentrated in the rural South and are developing a lock on them.  Or have they? Or is Barack Obama simply the wrong Democrat to win the Mountain and deep South? Too much an egghead? Or too much melanin?

Any Presidential nominee who eve grafts the wins of Jimmy Carter in 1976 onto the Obama wins of either 2008 or 2012 wins a landslide:



Key -- Carter won in 1976, Obama won twice -- deep red 151
.........  Carter lost in 1976, Obama won twice  -- medium red  181
......... Carter won in 1976, Obama never won -- pink 126
.........  Republicans won in 1976, 2008, and 2012 -- blue  54

......... Others (gray) 27

That is 456 to 483 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee of 2016, depending on how Indiana, North Carolina, and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska go. Maybe Arizona and Alaska are shaky, and that is not a reference to seismic activity.

Possible? If the Republicans nominate a sheer turkey and the Democrats can win back the sorts of people who voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976, yes. Likely? I can't see it happening.
       
           

 
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2013, 04:44:38 pm »

Any Presidential nominee who eve grafts the wins of Jimmy Carter in 1976 onto the Obama wins of either 2008 or 2012 wins a landslide:



Key -- Carter won in 1976, Obama won twice -- deep red 151
.........  Carter lost in 1976, Obama won twice  -- medium red  181
......... Carter won in 1976, Obama never won -- pink 126
.........  Republicans won in 1976, 2008, and 2012 -- blue  54

......... Others (gray) 27

That is 456 to 483 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee of 2016, depending on how Indiana, North Carolina, and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska go. Maybe Arizona and Alaska are shaky, and that is not a reference to seismic activity.

Possible? If the Republicans nominate a sheer turkey and the Democrats can win back the sorts of people who voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976, yes. Likely? I can't see it happening.
I think a more realistic map is Bill Clinton + Obama.  This may even be what the polling for Clinton v. not Christie is showing us right now.  This would basically be Clinton's best case scenario. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2013, 12:08:30 pm »

Any Presidential nominee who eve grafts the wins of Jimmy Carter in 1976 onto the Obama wins of either 2008 or 2012 wins a landslide:



Key -- Carter won in 1976, Obama won twice -- deep red 151
.........  Carter lost in 1976, Obama won twice  -- medium red  181
......... Carter won in 1976, Obama never won -- pink 126
.........  Republicans won in 1976, 2008, and 2012 -- blue  54

......... Others (gray) 27

That is 456 to 483 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee of 2016, depending on how Indiana, North Carolina, and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska go. Maybe Arizona and Alaska are shaky, and that is not a reference to seismic activity.

Possible? If the Republicans nominate a sheer turkey and the Democrats can win back the sorts of people who voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976, yes. Likely? I can't see it happening.
I think a more realistic map is Bill Clinton + Obama.  This may even be what the polling for Clinton v. not Christie is showing us right now.  This would basically be Clinton's best case scenario. 


Could be. I have seen a poll for Texas, and Hillary wins the state. I have seen absolutely nothing involving Alabama or Mississippi.
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