What happens on page 11 of this thread?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

the what doing the what

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe the debate over babies as breakfast cereal I called for way back in the dark times should happen. I volunteer for the task of explaining to everyone why eating babies is good actually.

OK, we're on page 11 now, so go for it.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Liam drops by and says have a nice day!

[GregTheGreat657]

GregTheGreat657 wishes Atlas a great Saturday

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have a nice day everyone!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm currently eating a crawfish po' boy with Srircha tartar sauce.  

Have a beautiful Saturday, everybody!

[Mr. Smith]

Мистер Смит может пишет кириллицей.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The first rule of Page 11 is: what happens on Page 11 stays on Page 11.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If Covid-19 doesn't take you out, can I?

That's a good pick up line.  Perhaps it only works if the target has multiple comorbidities though.

True, but it will be the best offer she gets this weekend.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

People say "its immoral", "that's evil", or "I'm calling the f**king cops" when I try to prove to them through logic and reason that eating live babies as a breakfast cereal is not just completely morally acceptable, but something anyone has a right to do as much as they want, because they taste good and babies to not deserve the immense moral concern required to ban eating them alive. The only arguments against baby eating are hysterical and illogical.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

well now we know

[bagelman]

I will post an inane comment for the purpose of having a comment on said 11th page

[It’s so Joever]

I HATE THIS FORUM OF DEGENERATES YOU ALL ARE INDIVIDUALISTIC COMMIES I AM THE MOST ARDENTLY PRO AMERICA PERSON ON HERE EVERY DAY I HUMP THE FLAG YOU COMMIES HAVE NOTHING ON ME!!!! YOU ALL SAY I AM CRAZY ON COVID BUT I ONLY WANT TO ARREST PEOPLE WHO COUGH AND KILL THEIR CHILDREN!!! WHATS SO CRAZY ABOUT THAT HM? YOU ALL ARE INCELS FYI I HATE YOU ALLLLLL!

[GregTheGreat657]

GregTheGreat657 wishes Atlas a nice Sunday

[GregTheGreat657]

GregTheGreat657 says we should end all mask mandates

[Biden his time]

Of course, the interesting part of looking through these statistics are the up-to-date monthly data they provide. January 2022 moving data already has been released as of today, even though Official 2022 Population and Migration statistics per county aren't going to be released until the Summer of next year. So I've mapped out some statistics showcasing how domestic migration has evolved over the first seven months of Fiscal Year 2022, and comparing them to the first seven months of Fiscal Year 2021 and Fiscal Year 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic).

Change from FY 2021 to FY 2022
(first seven months)

Image Link

Listing Extremes:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Top ZIP Code Prefixes

+67,426 Moves — Prefixes 100, 101, 102 — Manhattan, NY
+28,712 Moves — Prefix 941 — San Francisco, CA
+26,452 Moves — Prefix 112 — Brooklyn, NY
+20,952 Moves — Prefixes 900, 901 — Los Angeles, CA
+15,681 Moves — Prefixes 606, 607, 608 — Chicago, IL
+14,981 Moves — Prefixes 021, 022 — Boston, MA
+13,648 Moves — Prefix 200 — Washington, D.C.
+10,046 Moves — Prefix 981 — Seattle, WA
+10,016 Moves — Prefix 940 — San Mateo County, CA
+8,780 Moves — Prefix 104 — The Bronx, NY
+8,588 Moves — Prefixes 770, 772 — Houston, TX
+8,401 Moves — Prefix 328 — Orlando, FL
+8,264 Moves — Prefix 339 — Lee County, FL
+7,833 Moves — Prefix 111 — Northwest Queens, NY
+7,458 Moves — Prefix 334 — Palm Beach County, FL
+7,373 Moves — Prefix 330 — Homestead, FL; Hialeah, FL; Miami Gardens, FL; Miramar, FL
+6,065 Moves — Prefix 342 — Sarasota, Manatee, and Charlotte Counties in FL
+5,920 Moves — Prefix 706 — Southwest Louisiana
+5,730 Moves — Prefixes 752, 753 — Dallas, TX
+5,357 Moves — Prefix 946 — Oakland, CA
+5,341 Moves — Prefix 341 — Collier County, FL
+5,275 Moves — Prefix 191 — Philadelphia, PA

Bottom ZIP Code Prefixes

-6,782 Moves — Prefix 119 — Eastern Long Island in NY state
-6,477 Moves — Prefix 117 — Western Suffolk County, NY
-6,295 Moves — Prefix 786 — Austin, TX suburbs
-6,129 Moves — Prefix 840 — Salt Lake City, UT suburbs
-6,114 Moves — Prefix 973 — Salem, OR
-5,262 Moves — Prefix 836 — Boise, ID suburbs
-5,204 Moves — Prefix 926 — Irvine, CA

Of course, the main thing that can be seen here is recoveries throughout many American cities which saw worsening losses from migration over 2020 and 2021. New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Washington, D.C., Boston, Seattle, Houston, as well as many, many more large cities saw much better domestic migration numbers in the first months of FY 2022 than they did in the first months of FY 2021. Nearly all of Florida saw gains from the FY 2021 numbers, as did Southwest Louisiana (due to Hurricane Laura having hit the region early that fiscal year).

On the other hand, many suburban areas that benefited off of urban areas emptying out saw large drops regarding domestic migration, such as Long Island, the suburbs of many Western cities. The Midwest also saw losses, as did New England and much of the Western United States (excluding some large cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco).

Overall, most parts of the United States saw reversions to the mean in the first seven months of FY 2022 as compared to some extreme numbers seen in the previous year. Many rural areas that saw slowdowns in outmigration began to see the floodgates open once more, and many cities that suffered during COVID saw a much better year than did previously.


However, how has the pandemic affected the state of domestic migration in the United States overall? How do these first few months of FY 2022 compare to pre-COVID numbers, the first few months of FY 2019? That's what the next map is for:

Change from FY 2019 to FY 2022
(first seven months)

Image Link

Listing Extremes:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Top ZIP Code Prefixes

+9,150 Moves — Prefix 324 — Panama City, FL
+8,402 Moves — Prefix 959 — Chico, CA; Marysville, CA
+5,741 Moves — Prefix 328 — Orlando, FL
+5,276 Moves — Prefix 773 — Montgomery County, TX

Bottom ZIP Code Prefixes

-8,115 Moves — Prefix 852 — Mesa, AZ; Gilbert, AZ
-7,389 Moves — Prefix 945 — Eastern Alameda County, CA and Contra Costa County, CA
-7,004 Moves — Prefixes 606, 607, 608 — Chicago, IL
-6,777 Moves — Prefix 972 — Portland, OR
-6,598 Moves — Prefix 802 — Denver, CO
-5,972 Moves — Prefix 891 — Las Vegas, NV
-5,611 Moves — Prefix 334 — Palm Beach County, FL
-5,051 Moves — Prefix 981 — Seattle, WA

So overall, this map paints a much more interesting picture of how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected migration patterns, directly comparing numbers in the first few months of FY 2022 (outside the bounds of the large swings back and forth we saw during COVID), and the first few months of FY 2019, which were even before COVID.

Let's start at the Western United States, which seems to have become much less attractive to prospective movers than it was before the pandemic. The Pacific Northwest, the San Francisco Bay Area, all of Southern California, as well as the Las Vegas metro area, the Denver metro area, and the Phoenix metro area are nearly universally seeing lower domestic migration than they did before the pandemic. Perhaps this suggests that growth in the Pacific Northwest, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, previously some of the fastest-growing parts of the US, is bound to slow down, and California only will shrink ever-faster over the coming years (or at least in FY 2022). Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and New Mexico are breaking about even with their migration rates in FY 2019, as Montana and Hawaii somewhat improve.

Moving Eastwards, the Western part of North Dakota seems to be doing even worse than they did in FY 2019, as the oil boom there has passed long ago. However, the rest of the Great Plains seem to be doing fine, particularly the suburbs of Sioux Falls, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa.

Going down to Texas, the state as a whole is doing somewhat better than it did in FY 2019, but regional differences abound. The only parts of the state doing much worse than they did in FY 2019 are the McAllen metro area and the previously-booming oil areas in Western Texas. The Texas Triangle's growth only intensified in FY 2022 as compared to three years prior, as San Antonio, the North Houston suburbs (including Montgomery County), and the Western Dallas suburbs (with Denton County, Parker County, Wise County) standing out in particular for their gains. The boom in Austin has mellowed somewhat, but it remains a strong gainer of residents.

The Midwestern United States largely was stable in between FY 2019 and FY 2022, with many notable exceptions. Metro Minneapolis and Chicago both seem to have lost much of their luster since then (perhaps contributing to Minnesota growing slower than Wisconsin for the first time in years in FY 2021), while Northern Michigan and Northern Wisconsin are seeing much better numbers than they did a few years back.

The Southeastern US is also largely stable, with many exceptions. Memphis, TN, the whole state of Louisiana, and the Atlanta metro area (exc. its Southern suburbs) all saw drops in migration between FY 2019 and FY 2022. On the other hand, the Carolinas and Tennessee do better, as does nearly the entire state of Florida (with the exception of the Tampa Bay Area's suburbs and Palm Beach County).

Back up to the Mid-Atlantic, the Washington, D.C. metro area's suburbs in NoVA and Maryland all perform lower than they did in FY 2019. The Loudoun County area especially stands out, perhaps signalling an end to fast growth in that region. On the other hand, Delaware stands out as performing better.

Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Upstate New York all largely break even with their FY 2019 numbers, excluding a large drop in the city of Philadelphia. The New York City metro area faces, despite its wild swings, largely is performing worse than it did in FY 2019. Interestingly, though, Manhattan and the Bronx both buck this trend. New England also seems to be doing significantly better than it did three years back, with the exception of Eastern Massachusetts.

[Joseph Cao]

Because I'm wondering if the same logic can be applied to this thread.  I'm sitting here at reply number 41.  Does that mean that we probably have another few tens of replies yet to go on this thread?  Probably more likely than there being hundreds of replies to go.  So cherish the replies yet to come, just like you should cherish the Earth before doomsday.

As Mr. Morden is no doubt aware, the Doomsday Argument is probabilistic and assumes that randomness is the determining factor in number of replies, or years left until Doomsday, or what have you, which is always a shaky assumption. In the case of actual Doomsday there is the not insignificant chance of some actually apocalyptic manmade event occurring. In the case of the Atlas Forum there are posters like Ishan who go around desecrating the graves of long-buried threads. In the case of this particular thread, its metaness is too tempting to keep the aforementioned gravediggers from constantly necroing it over the years, prolonging its length far beyond the average forum thread, and attracting others to make content-free posts (notably this one, notably not the post above this one) purely to get this thread to page 11 and answer the question of what happens on that page, which may be succinctly described as a whole lot of nothing, a microcosm of the Blog as a whole.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TimTurner says: Mars should not be at war.

[Mr. Morden]

Because I'm wondering if the same logic can be applied to this thread.  I'm sitting here at reply number 41.  Does that mean that we probably have another few tens of replies yet to go on this thread?  Probably more likely than there being hundreds of replies to go.  So cherish the replies yet to come, just like you should cherish the Earth before doomsday.

As Mr. Morden is no doubt aware, the Doomsday Argument is probabilistic and assumes that randomness is the determining factor in number of replies, or years left until Doomsday, or what have you, which is always a shaky assumption. In the case of actual Doomsday there is the not insignificant chance of some actually apocalyptic manmade event occurring. In the case of the Atlas Forum there are posters like Ishan who go around desecrating the graves of long-buried threads. In the case of this particular thread, its metaness is too tempting to keep the aforementioned gravediggers from constantly necroing it over the years, prolonging its length far beyond the average forum thread, and attracting others to make content-free posts (notably this one, notably not the post above this one) purely to get this thread to page 11 and answer the question of what happens on that page, which may be succinctly described as a whole lot of nothing, a microcosm of the Blog as a whole.

Good point.  It might not have gone on this long, except that I intervened with the hand of God, and put the link to it in my signature.  That dooms the thread to being necroed for eternity, as my profile is so interesting to my fellow posters here that they can't help but click on my sig for years to come.