What happens if Lieberman becomes president in September 2001?

[Mr. Morden]

Riffing on this idea:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153204.msg3295825#msg3295825

Gore/Lieberman win the 2000 election, either without a recount, or with a recount that goes their way.  9/11, or some similar 9/11 style attack happens in September 2001, except that in this case, the plot also involves the assassination of President Gore, which is successful.

Lieberman is sworn in as president (the first Jewish president), and the War on Terror begins with a Democratic president....who also happens to be rather hawkish on foreign policy, and not exactly beloved by the party base.  (Though keep in mind, in real life, Lieberman's friction with the party base didn't really erupt in a big way until his 2004 presidential campaign.)

What happens with Afghanistan?  What happens with Iraq?  What happens with issues like waterboarding, Guantanamo Bay, warrantless wiretaps and the like?  How does Lieberman handle these issues, and do the Democratic and Republican parties confront these issues in a completely different way because of the fact that the War on Terror begins with a Democratic president?

And of course, what happens in the 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

My scenario:

Lieberman is elected on his own in 2004. He did not invade Iraq, it was Dubya obsession with Joe supported as Senator, but as President he'd be focused on Afghanistan, probably expanding the war there. In 2006 Democrats narrowly take the House but the GOP still maintains the Senate. The Democrats are f**ked big time in 2008, with the recession (less dramatic than OTL but nonetheless in place) and Vice President Edwards' (chosen by Lieberman to add "populist" credidentials) affair. McCain, having been too close to the Democratic President, fails at winning the GOP nomination, which instead goes to George Allen, who never make the macaca gaffe. The Republicans are unable to hold the newly-retaken House in 2010, due to worsening economic conditions, and Allen loses re-election to someone like Barack Obama or Russ Feingold, benefiting from both the economy as well as the Democrats being fed ip with the DLC stuff.

[dudeabides]

My scenario:

President Lieberman and Vice President Leon Pannetta run and win in 2004 against GOP Presidential Nominee John Ashcroft by a comfortable, 53-46 margin. However, the financial collapse of 2008 causes the popularity of the democratic President, Joe Lieberman, to diminish. Senator John McCain and running-mate Rudy Giuliani defeat Democratic Presidential Nominee John Kerry and running-mate Mark Warner by a 55-44 margin.

[Indy Prez]

The wars are paid for with massive tax increases. Balanced budgets, more bombs and a few extralegal assassinations of Muslim leaders. 

Re-elected on a bipartisan ticket with McCain against divided anti-war opposition from Dems, Libs and Reps.

[badgate]

^Is providing a color key out of the question?

[Mr. Morden]

I guess, moreso than predictions on the specific elections, I'm wondering what people's thoughts are on whether Lieberman's anti-terror policies would resemble those of Bush's IRL.  And would the grassroots of the Democratic Party have gone along with Lieberman on his anti-terror policies, or would it rip the party apart?

And would the GOP, being out of the White House for so long, start to grow really distrustful of the Executive Branch, and get more isolationist in foreign policy?

[Earthling]

It would make a great timeline.

My scenario:

Lieberman gets in with huge approval ratings, equal to those of Bush. The war in Afghanistan will be inevitable. Lieberman will go in even more than Bush did, go after Bin Laden with everything the military has. After all, with a dead president it has become even more personal. They had been close in getting Osama in real life so it's not out of the question that in this scenario they will get for real. That will be some where in late 2001 or early 2002. It will keep his ratings sky high going in to the midterms. Lieberman might use his popularity to get some things done on the domestic front. With Republicans reluctant to oppose a extremely popular president they might work with him on issues like health care and education.

During the midterms the Democrats win the majority in the Senate (the Democrats would never have gained the majority in the scenario because of Lieberman's resignation from the Senate and the Republican governor of Connecticut appointing a Republican to his seat. That seat will be won back a Democrat in 2002, Max Cleland wins his reelection bid. Shaheen wins in New Hampshire and with Jeffords becoming an independent it gives the Democrats a majority. Early in the new year, McCain also leaves the Republican and becomes a Democrat. The Democrats also win enough seats to gain a majority in the House making Dick Gephart the Speaker.

After Gore's death, Lieberman decides to give the Vice Presidency to former Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska. And for the Presidential elections of 2004 this will also be the ticket for the Democratic Party.

Lieberman doesn't go in to Iraq but he starts to undermine Saddam Hussein, trying to get him out of office. The War in Afghanistan stills goes on. Al Qaeda has been hit hard, but the Taliban is still going on. But with the death of Bin Laden the war is seen as more successful. Lieberman hopes to get the troops out by 2006. 2003 Is a good but also difficult year for the President. His ratings start the drop and by the summer they fall below the 60% for the first time. Still, most people approve of his work and most Republicans don't see a reason to jump in the race for the Presidency. The number one candidate, Jeb Bush, decides to stay out, and with McCain having joined the Democrats the party has no real front runner for 2004.

Lieberman wins the nomination for his party's candidacy easily. With the Republicans it's a longer process but ultimately Governor George Pataki of New York gets the nomination. Having won reelection in 2002 in a good year for the Democrats, he is seen as their strongest candidate. But most experts don't give him much change against the popular President.

The campaign is a boring one. The candidates agree for the most part on foreign policy and after 9/11 foreign policy and national security are the number issue with the voters. The Republicans attack Lieberman on domestic spending and the economy (the economy is still recovering from the Dot Com bubble and 9/11) but most voters see in the President a strong and determent leader.

On November 2 Lieberman wins a strong victory. Altough is approval ratings have dropped to around 50%, it is enough to win a majority of the vote, the first for a Democrat in 28 years.

Lieberman - Kerrey: 51% and 325 ECV
Pataki - Alexander: 47% and 213 ECV

His second term and his only elected term start strong for Lieberman. With increased majorities in the House and the Senate and the election behind him, the President starts to build a coalition to fight against Saddam. Still in the power after years of pressure, Lieberman decides to take him out. His newly appointed Secretary of State, John McCain, is all for it and travels the world to get the support from other nations. With the War in Afghanistan slowly winding down, the attention is now focused on Iraq and for months the White House prepares the plans for a invasion and prepares the nation for a new war. However most countries decide to stay out and the US only has a small coalition. It is deemed enough. After Saddam kicks the UN weapons inspectors out in early 2006 the war starts and within weeks the Iraqi army is defeated. Saddam however flees and is nowhere to be found. The approval ratings for the President rise again after the success in Iraq and after ending 2005 with a approval rating of just 43% they are now above 55% again.

On the domestic front things are more difficult. The Republicans, after recovering from losing the fourth presidential election in a row, decide to make life much more difficult for the President. So nothing really is achieved. Katrina hits New Orleans but is far better handled by the administration.
The new year however will not bring better news. With the midterms coming up, the Democrats worry about the backlash. After 14 years of Democratic rule the nation wants fresh blood.

The Iraq War goes in to much of the same problems that it had in real life, but less severe. With Al Qaeda more of less gone, rogue terrorists create havoc in Iraq, but never to a degree as they did in real life. By the elections of 2006 the Democratic Party is in trouble. Divided over the foreign policy of the President and with the President's approval ratings at 45% things look bleak. During the midterms the Republican Party gains a small majority in both houses of Congress, making it almost impossible for Lieberman to get anything done in his last two years. He decides to focus even more on foreign policy. With Iraq becoming more problematic he needs a big success. The peace process is the most obvious and he decides to use his Jewish background to force Israel to make a deal with the Palestinians. In the summer of 2007, after months of negotiations a peace accord is agreed between Abbas and Olmert. A new Palestinian state is founded, consisting of the West Bank and Gaza with Ramallah as it's captital. Israel is allowed to get three major settlements on the West Bank, defended by the Israeli army. Al other settlements will be demolished. Jerusalem is given a special status, neither nation can claim it and make it their capital. The Wall will remain for now but it will be redrawn to place it along the border. The checkpoints will also stay in place.
The accords are seen as a big achievement and after that Lieberman decides he has done enough. The economy however starts to collapse. And 2008 will prove to be a very hard year. With the economic downturn the prospects for the Democrats are dark. Many topcontenders decide to stay out and the nomination goes to Senator John Edwards of North Carolina. The Republicans nominate Jeb Bush and in November he defeats Edwards in a landslide victory 53% - 45%:

On January 20, 2009 Lieberman leaves the White House. The economy is in trouble (altough not as bad as in real life, because no tax cuts and a later Iraq War), and a messy War in Iraq. He does however has is successes and most experts agree that Lieberman was for the most part a good and successful President.

[MATTROSE94]

It would make a great timeline.

My scenario:

Lieberman gets in with huge approval ratings, equal to those of Bush. The war in Afghanistan will be inevitable. Lieberman will go in even more than Bush did, go after Bin Laden with everything the military has. After all, with a dead president it has become even more personal. They had been close in getting Osama in real life so it's not out of the question that in this scenario they will get for real. That will be some where in late 2001 or early 2002. It will keep his ratings sky high going in to the midterms. Lieberman might use his popularity to get some things done on the domestic front. With Republicans reluctant to oppose a extremely popular president they might work with him on issues like health care and education.

During the midterms the Democrats win the majority in the Senate (the Democrats would never have gained the majority in the scenario because of Lieberman's resignation from the Senate and the Republican governor of Connecticut appointing a Republican to his seat. That seat will be won back a Democrat in 2002, Max Cleland wins his reelection bid. Shaheen wins in New Hampshire and with Jeffords becoming an independent it gives the Democrats a majority. Early in the new year, McCain also leaves the Republican and becomes a Democrat. The Democrats also win enough seats to gain a majority in the House making Dick Gephart the Speaker.

After Gore's death, Lieberman decides to give the Vice Presidency to former Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska. And for the Presidential elections of 2004 this will also be the ticket for the Democratic Party.

Lieberman doesn't go in to Iraq but he starts to undermine Saddam Hussein, trying to get him out of office. The War in Afghanistan stills goes on. Al Qaeda has been hit hard, but the Taliban is still going on. But with the death of Bin Laden the war is seen as more successful. Lieberman hopes to get the troops out by 2006. 2003 Is a good but also difficult year for the President. His ratings start the drop and by the summer they fall below the 60% for the first time. Still, most people approve of his work and most Republicans don't see a reason to jump in the race for the Presidency. The number one candidate, Jeb Bush, decides to stay out, and with McCain having joined the Democrats the party has no real front runner for 2004.

Lieberman wins the nomination for his party's candidacy easily. With the Republicans it's a longer process but ultimately Governor George Pataki of New York gets the nomination. Having won reelection in 2002 in a good year for the Democrats, he is seen as their strongest candidate. But most experts don't give him much change against the popular President.

The campaign is a boring one. The candidates agree for the most part on foreign policy and after 9/11 foreign policy and national security are the number issue with the voters. The Republicans attack Lieberman on domestic spending and the economy (the economy is still recovering from the Dot Com bubble and 9/11) but most voters see in the President a strong and determent leader.

On November 2 Lieberman wins a strong victory. Altough is approval ratings have dropped to around 50%, it is enough to win a majority of the vote, the first for a Democrat in 28 years.

Lieberman - Kerrey: 51% and 325 ECV
Pataki - Alexander: 47% and 213 ECV

His second term and his only elected term start strong for Lieberman. With increased majorities in the House and the Senate and the election behind him, the President starts to build a coalition to fight against Saddam. Still in the power after years of pressure, Lieberman decides to take him out. His newly appointed Secretary of State, John McCain, is all for it and travels the world to get the support from other nations. With the War in Afghanistan slowly winding down, the attention is now focused on Iraq and for months the White House prepares the plans for a invasion and prepares the nation for a new war. However most countries decide to stay out and the US only has a small coalition. It is deemed enough. After Saddam kicks the UN weapons inspectors out in early 2006 the war starts and within weeks the Iraqi army is defeated. Saddam however flees and is nowhere to be found. The approval ratings for the President rise again after the success in Iraq and after ending 2005 with a approval rating of just 43% they are now above 55% again.

On the domestic front things are more difficult. The Republicans, after recovering from losing the fourth presidential election in a row, decide to make life much more difficult for the President. So nothing really is achieved. Katrina hits New Orleans but is far better handled by the administration.
The new year however will not bring better news. With the midterms coming up, the Democrats worry about the backlash. After 14 years of Democratic rule the nation wants fresh blood.

The Iraq War goes in to much of the same problems that it had in real life, but less severe. With Al Qaeda more of less gone, rogue terrorists create havoc in Iraq, but never to a degree as they did in real life. By the elections of 2006 the Democratic Party is in trouble. Divided over the foreign policy of the President and with the President's approval ratings at 45% things look bleak. During the midterms the Republican Party gains a small majority in both houses of Congress, making it almost impossible for Lieberman to get anything done in his last two years. He decides to focus even more on foreign policy. With Iraq becoming more problematic he needs a big success. The peace process is the most obvious and he decides to use his Jewish background to force Israel to make a deal with the Palestinians. In the summer of 2007, after months of negotiations a peace accord is agreed between Abbas and Olmert. A new Palestinian state is founded, consisting of the West Bank and Gaza with Ramallah as it's captital. Israel is allowed to get three major settlements on the West Bank, defended by the Israeli army. Al other settlements will be demolished. Jerusalem is given a special status, neither nation can claim it and make it their capital. The Wall will remain for now but it will be redrawn to place it along the border. The checkpoints will also stay in place.
The accords are seen as a big achievement and after that Lieberman decides he has done enough. The economy however starts to collapse. And 2008 will prove to be a very hard year. With the economic downturn the prospects for the Democrats are dark. Many topcontenders decide to stay out and the nomination goes to Senator John Edwards of North Carolina. The Republicans nominate Jeb Bush and in November he defeats Edwards in a landslide victory 53% - 45%:

On January 20, 2009 Lieberman leaves the White House. The economy is in trouble (altough not as bad as in real life, because no tax cuts and a later Iraq War), and a messy War in Iraq. He does however has is successes and most experts agree that Lieberman was for the most part a good and successful President.

Good scenario overall! I always thought that either Rick Santorum or George Allen would have had been in a good position to run for the Republican Nomination in 2008 in a scenario were Al Gore was elected in 2000, or were the both defeated in 2006 as in RL?

[Earthling]

Santorum losses, Allen survived. But Jeb Bush is the biggest name in the Republican Party after George W. lost in 2000. He stayed out in 2004 because Lieberman seemed to strong. But 2008 was his year.

[Jerseyrules]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

[Enderman]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

Possibly.....who would be GOP nom in 2004? Pataki, Engle, or McCain?

[Jerseyrules]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

Possibly.....who would be GOP nom in 2004? Pataki, Engle, or McCain?

Maybe butterflies and better coattails in NY allow for Senator Giuliani?  Maybe he runs in 04 but if so I don't see him losing

[Mr. Morden]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

Possibly.....who would be GOP nom in 2004? Pataki, Engle, or McCain?

I assume that by "Engle" you guys mean Engler, as in John Engler?

I any case, Engler is my de facto "what if" 2000 GOP nominee if Bush never ran.  In 2004 though, if it's not McCain or anyone else in Congress, then my de facto "what if" GOP nominee would be Frank Keating, particularly if terrorism is still a major issue.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

Possibly.....who would be GOP nom in 2004? Pataki, Engle, or McCain?

I assume that by "Engle" you guys mean Engler, as in John Engler?

What about Governer of iOwa?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

Possibly.....who would be GOP nom in 2004? Pataki, Engle, or McCain?

I assume that by "Engle" you guys mean Engler, as in John Engler?

What about Governer of iOwa?

governor John Engle Beats george bush and george pataky. he gives the people Of iowa Food and Words and Protects them from being violated by hurricanes.

[Jerseyrules]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

Possibly.....who would be GOP nom in 2004? Pataki, Engle, or McCain?

I assume that by "Engle" you guys mean Engler, as in John Engler?

What about Governer of iOwa?

governor John Engle Beats george bush and george pataky. he gives the people Of iowa Food and Words and Protects them from being violated by hurricanes.

I don't understand these references

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

Possibly.....who would be GOP nom in 2004? Pataki, Engle, or McCain?

I assume that by "Engle" you guys mean Engler, as in John Engler?

What about Governer of iOwa?

governor John Engle Beats george bush and george pataky. he gives the people Of iowa Food and Words and Protects them from being violated by hurricanes.

I don't understand these references

you are Evil and John Engle Governor of iowa does not Like you.

[sdu754]

Ok I've been thinking this over.  What if Gore decided to go for OH Instead of FL, narrowly wins it, W. picked Pataki or Engle to broaden his base, campaigned hard in MI, IL, NY, NJ, and PA, narrowly loses all of them, but it's enough to win the popular vote?  He refuses to allow a recount to divide and weaken the country so concedes before recounts.  This makes him look like a graceful statesman to the people and he's generally well-liked.  He campaigns hard for the GOP in 02, 04, and 06.  Could he make a comeback in 08 in a President Gore/Lieberman TL?

I think it would have been Hard for Bush to make a 2008 comeback like the one Nixon did in 1968. The reason is that Bush was only on the national stage for the 2000 election, and would have been forgotten by 2008. You have to remember, Nixon was a rising star in the Republican party while in Congress, and was a two term Vice President. Bush was merely a popular govorner.

If Gore had bowed out graciously after the first Florida recount, I think he could have made a 2008 comeback. I think he would have been the favorite for the Democratic nomination.

[Mister Mets]

Interesting scenario.

My guess is that Lieberman would be hawkish, but that he would avoid Bush's most significant mistakes (IE- going into a war without an exit strategy.)

He would still likely have been a war President heading into 2004. He might not have been as controversial in that department.

The top Republican argument in the 2006 elections would be the need for a change on domestic policy after three terms of Democrats.

The 2002 elections would likely have still been good for Republicans. Democrats from the Class benefited from Clinton's coattails in 1996.

John Thune would probably have won the South Dakota senate election, which he lost by 0.1%. Jean Carnahan might have won the Special election in Missouri.

Paul Wellstone probably would not have died, just because chaos theory makes it unlikely he would have been on the same plane and had the same problems in a world with a different President. He might still have lost to Coleman.

Potential Vice-Presidents for Lieberman...
John Edwards: Young Southern Senator.
Dick Gephardt: Prominent member of Congressional leadership.
Colin Powell: Show of bipartisanship. Historic milestone.

In such a patriotic time, the Republicans would likely have nominated John McCain. Giuliani would have been a potential running mate, with the greater proximity to 9/11. Plus, a ticket with a 68 year old and 60 year old is slightly preferable to one with a 72 year old and a 64 year old.

[Earthling]

Clinton did not have any coattails in 1996. The Democrats lost two seats in the senate in that year.

[Mister Mets]

Clinton did not have any coattails in 1996. The Democrats lost two seats in the senate in that year.

That doesn't necessarily mean anything against Clinton.

1990 had been an okay year for the Democratic party, so winners from that election in increasingly conservative states were vulnerable in conservative states in the South (Arkansas, Alabama) and the West (Nebraska).

[Earthling]

I didn't say it meant anything against Clinton. It is just a fact that Clinton did not have any coattails in 1996. And in 1990 the Democrats increased their majority by one seat. 1990 Was not a great year for the Democrats in the senate either.

Fact is that the Democrats were capable of picking up 8 seats in 2008 while only losing 2 in 2002.