battleground states in 2020?

[super6646]

Best map by far, though missing NC, PA, MI, NH, ME, and maybe GA.

[super6646]

(ignore the distribution of electoral votes)




possible election result?

This would give the election to the Democrats, though not by the margin shown with the current electoral votes distribution, due to the general north to south trend electoral votes have taken over the last few decades.

I'm guessing this is what it'll be like based on some basic trends that I see (long-term and shorter term) with some of the states.

Wow other then MO and AK you basically nailed how the map would like in a 50-50 election.

NC is still R+ 6-7, while NH is 50-50.

[super6646]

That makes sense Jacob, though I'd remove Maine, Michigan and Oregon. There is no real sign of a GOP trend there. I would also remove Arizona - very Republican tradition and a lot of ground for Democrats to cover. I also don't think Pennsylvania will have ceased to be a battleground while Ohio still is. Either remove Ohio or bring in PA.

You may be right about MI, but I stand by ME and OR.  In 2000 and 2004
according to the exit polls, a higher percentage of young people voted for Bush than the rest of the population in ME.  It's a rural state which I think in 15 years will swing at least to a tied state.  I still believe that the SW including AZ will trend Democrat due to heavy immigration.  Bush got a good percentage of the hispanic vote, but he appealed to them and many were comfortable with Bush's persona.  I doubt that such a high percentage would vote for a Republican they couldn't identify with as a person.

About PA, I feel if Bush couldn't win it this year than no other conservative Republican will.  They are right next to the NE which is very liberal and after 9/11, if a Republican still can't win PA then I think it's over there, unless a liberal Republican runs.  OH will continue to be a split state, liberals in the north and conservatives in the South.  I don't see that changing anytime soon.

This guy was 100% correct here.