battleground states in 2020?

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

[TeePee4Prez]

All this trending crap is braindead. Are you all accountants or something?

Actually that's what I studied.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Actually, the Philadelphia area is losing population.

Just the city is losing population. Bot those Democrats are moving somewhere. The Philadelphia suburbs!

Wrong. New Jersey is the real hotspot for people leaving the city.

Not entirely true.  Why do you think Montco GOPers are getting pissed over new developments?  Dem registration out there has skyrocketed in 2004.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

Good example, but bad point. According to the Census Bureau, Butler county's population grew by 3.4% in 2000-2003 to 180,000 compared to just 0.7% for the state as a whole. And Butler county borders on Allegheny county.

However, Beaver county, which also borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.5% to 179,000. Armstrong county, which borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.0% to 72,000. Westmoreland county to Allegheny's east saw its population drop 0.5% to 368,000. Allegheny itself lost 1.6% of its population to 1.261 million. That alone accounts for several times more than the change in Butler. Other counties in Southern and Western Pennsylvania losing population are Fayette (-1.7%), Greene (-0.7%), Lawrence (-1.3%), Mercer (-0.3%), Crawford (-0.6%), Erie (-0.3%), Somerset (-0.8%), Cambria (-2.1%), Indiana (-0.6%), Clearfield (-0.6%), Clarion (-1.3%), Venango (-1.7%), Warren (-2.4%), McKean (-1.5%), Elk (-2.3%) and Blair (-1.5%).

Not a single one of the 8 counties surrouding Butler saw its population increase from 2000-2003.

By contrast the Southeastern & Eastern counties are growing, such as York (+3.4%), Lancaster (+2.6%), Chester (+5.5%), Montgomery (+2.9%), Bucks (+2.6%), Berks (+3.1%), Northampton (+4.2%), Lehigh (+2.7%), Carbon (+2.3%), Monroe (+11.4%), Pike (+12.7%), and Wayne (+2.9%).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/pennsylvania_map.html

Draw a straight line east from Harrisburg to Allentown, then north from Allentown to Scranton, and not a single county falling to the south or east of that line besides Phildelphia does not show growth. A majority of counties lying to the north or west of that line, however, are shrinking. The further west you get, the more dire the situation becomes. It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world. In any case, the future of the state (at least in voting numbers) seems to be towards the SE.

Thank you.

I concur.  This data definitely helps the Dems out considerably.  Unless the GOP removes this Bible Belt mentality, the Dems should thrive here.  I can definitely see Chester County flipping in the near future and Lancaster, Berks and other exurbian counties closing their large GOP margins.

[TeePee4Prez]

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You could be right about that. Having not visited the area myself since 2000 (and that was only to see Carnegie Mellon), I really can't say. Pittsburgh is not behaving like other big cities in trending Democrat... it is trending slightly Republican, and the suburbs are trending major Republican. That could be explained by the New Dealers dying off.

I think Allegheny County will always be Democratic.  One things the Dems must do is court these new NY transplants moving into Monroe, Bucks, Pike, Lehigh, and Northampton Conuties to counteract this.  Supersoulty is right, the New Dealers/old steel mill people are dying and their grandkids are trending GOP.  Why they aren't adopting social liberalism?  I will never know.  My family lineage/political party is weird.  Grandfather was a typical New Dealer (economically left/socially VERY rconservative), father was your typical "I was once a Democrat, but on social values.....", now I on the other hand think they're both to the left of me on trade and I'm more of a DLC Dem on economics, but they are both FAR to the right of me socially.  I know I'm not alone here.