That makes sense Jacob, though I'd remove Maine, Michigan and Oregon. There is no real sign of a GOP trend there. I would also remove Arizona - very Republican tradition and a lot of ground for Democrats to cover. I also don't think Pennsylvania will have ceased to be a battleground while Ohio still is. Either remove Ohio or bring in PA.
You may be right about MI, but I stand by ME and OR. In 2000 and 2004
according to the exit polls, a higher percentage of young people voted for Bush than the rest of the population in ME. It's a rural state which I think in 15 years will swing at least to a tied state. I still believe that the SW including AZ will trend Democrat due to heavy immigration. Bush got a good percentage of the hispanic vote, but he appealed to them and many were comfortable with Bush's persona. I doubt that such a high percentage would vote for a Republican they couldn't identify with as a person.
About PA, I feel if Bush couldn't win it this year than no other conservative Republican will. They are right next to the NE which is very liberal and after 9/11, if a Republican still can't win PA then I think it's over there, unless a liberal Republican runs. OH will continue to be a split state, liberals in the north and conservatives in the South. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
If you say so...what I see is Maine turning from solid GOP to strongly leaning Dem. I don't see that trend reversing anytime soon.
On a related note, it's valuable to try and analyze Bush and Kerry as candidates. I don't think Bush is the generic Republican people make him out to be. He basically been a crazy liberal when it comes to fisal policy, taken a passive, centrist position on social issues, been a santa claus to immigrants and an ultra-hawk on foreign policy.
I see the GOP as held together mainly on foreign policy at the moment. Bush hasn't really done much to make America a more conservative place in terms of abortions, divorces, gay rights and so on. He's stalled liberal progress, which is a winning strategy, but that's it. If the GOP turns more conservative on social issues, they could start losing ground.
Moreover, Bush has been kind of populist, financing huge tax cuts for the poor and middle-class with loans. That is definitely not traditional Republican policy. If the GOP turns more conservative they might lose low-income voters. Finally, Bush is a Texan with lcose ties to Hispanics. A more waspy image in the future with a harsher view towards immigration might hurt the GOP there. All this could change the equation on future elections.
Kerry on the other hand was pretty generic, just a poor candidate.
