I would say that Colorodo and Nevada are drifting to the Democrats quickly enough to be on the Dem side by 2020. Virginia is too but hav ea longer way to go. North Carolina has an even longer way to go.
States that voted for Bush but are likely to be(weak perhaps) lean Democrat by, say, 2020:
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
States that voted for Bush but are likely to be battlegrounds in 2020:
Iowa
Florida
Ohio (?)
Virginia
States that voted for Kerry but will lean Republican
None
States that voted for Kerry but will be battlegrounds
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan (?)
Minnesota (?)
I agree with your assessment, Gustaf. I am not sure about Minnesota and Michigan.
