battleground states in 2020?

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania is a Democrat-leaning swing state. It will probably remain a swing state for a long time to come...swing away from the Dems slightly? Possible. But a Republican state? Very unlikely.

I'm most worried about Piitsburgh metro sliding for us.  Philly area is trending Dem, but possibly not enough to offset Pittsburgh.  Wait and see!

Yep. Southwest PA continues to trend Republican....but as can be seen from the 2004 election, Southeast PA still holds more weight. I don't see that changing any time soon as Pittsburgh is losing population and the Philly suburbs are booming.

Acctually, the Pittsburgh metro is still growing.  You should know that being from around there.  Been out to Butler County lately?

Good example, but bad point. According to the Census Bureau, Butler county's population grew by 3.4% in 2000-2003 to 180,000 compared to just 0.7% for the state as a whole. And Butler county borders on Allegheny county.

However, Beaver county, which also borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.5% to 179,000. Armstrong county, which borders Allegheny, saw its population drop by 1.0% to 72,000. Westmoreland county to Allegheny's east saw its population drop 0.5% to 368,000. Allegheny itself lost 1.6% of its population to 1.261 million. That alone accounts for several times more than the change in Butler. Other counties in Southern and Western Pennsylvania losing population are Fayette (-1.7%), Greene (-0.7%), Lawrence (-1.3%), Mercer (-0.3%), Crawford (-0.6%), Erie (-0.3%), Somerset (-0.8%), Cambria (-2.1%), Indiana (-0.6%), Clearfield (-0.6%), Clarion (-1.3%), Venango (-1.7%), Warren (-2.4%), McKean (-1.5%), Elk (-2.3%) and Blair (-1.5%).

Not a single one of the 8 counties surrouding Butler saw its population increase from 2000-2003.

By contrast the Southeastern & Eastern counties are growing, such as York (+3.4%), Lancaster (+2.6%), Chester (+5.5%), Montgomery (+2.9%), Bucks (+2.6%), Berks (+3.1%), Northampton (+4.2%), Lehigh (+2.7%), Carbon (+2.3%), Monroe (+11.4%), Pike (+12.7%), and Wayne (+2.9%).

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/pennsylvania_map.html

Draw a straight line east from Harrisburg to Allentown, then north from Allentown to Scranton, and not a single county falling to the south or east of that line besides Phildelphia does not show growth. A majority of counties lying to the north or west of that line, however, are shrinking. The further west you get, the more dire the situation becomes. It is of no small wonder (and this is one of the strangest things about American politics) how many of these counties, in the Pennsylvania "T", continue to support a party whose economic policies have persistently and reliably contributed to the destruction of their communities over 30 years. Such an instance of electoral self-destruction would rarely be found anywhere in the world. In any case, the future of the state (at least in voting numbers) seems to be towards the SE.

Damn you and your "census data".  

I suppose you are right in that that is in fact what the census does show.  I'll amend what I said earlier:

Younger people are acctually starting to move back into the Pittsburgh area.  I have observed this myself.  Most of the population loss is for "New Deal Die Off".  Thus, explaining the increased margin of the Republican vote.  In a few years, the treand will probably balance out.

[12th Doctor]

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Although it's starting from a much higher startpoint than pretty much any other city

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Up to a point (it certainly seems to be the case in Westmoreland county) but the increased importence of social issues and the fact that Kerry basically failed to campaign on economic issues towards the end is also a reason (although it can be overstated).

That's just not true, Al.  Pittsburgh is a very changed city, economically, from where it was 30 years ago.  The rusted out steel factories have been riped out and replaced with high-tech jobs areas and shopping centers.  I've seen it with my own two eyes.