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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Hagan leads all Pubs by double digits  (Read 1568 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: March 12, 2013, 03:17:06 pm »

As Jensen notes on Twitter, primarily due to Indy lead/name rec. If they can't find a strong candidate or lower her approvals she should win. Primary a complete crapshoot.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_312.pdf



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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2013, 03:56:06 pm »

So we just need to protect Baucus in Montana, Johnson in South Dakota, Landrieu in Louisinana, and Pryor in Arkansas? We can lose all four of those seats (doubt it though) and still keep the majority.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2013, 04:41:48 pm »

Tillis represents north Charlotte and 53% of 704 area code Republicans still don't know who he is.
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« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2013, 08:44:41 pm »

For most of these, she's at or above 50%, this looks really good for her.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2013, 08:48:15 pm »

This looks like a pretty significant swing left compared to the last poll...what caused it? And the general election numbers look a bit stronger than expected for a Senator with a 42/39 approval rating in a state that tilts the other way. Seems Forest leads in the primary and is the strongest general election candidate (this was the case for Berry last time, too).

This seems like an outlier to me. Hagan's ahead, but she's not that far ahead.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2013, 08:50:58 pm »

This looks like a pretty significant swing left compared to the last poll...what caused it? And the general election numbers look a bit stronger than expected for a Senator with a 42/39 approval rating in a state that tilts the other way. Seems Forest leads in the primary and is the strongest general election candidate (this was the case for Berry last time, too).

This seems like an outlier to me. Hagan's ahead, but she's not that far ahead.

Well, it might be an outlier, but I don't think its out of reality. The only Republican who has any sense beating Hagan is Pat McCrory, and he's now the Governor, so that's out. The top contenders of this field could decoy Hagan well, but not win.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2013, 08:57:11 pm »

This looks like a pretty significant swing left compared to the last poll...what caused it? And the general election numbers look a bit stronger than expected for a Senator with a 42/39 approval rating in a state that tilts the other way. Seems Forest leads in the primary and is the strongest general election candidate (this was the case for Berry last time, too).

This seems like an outlier to me. Hagan's ahead, but she's not that far ahead.

Well, it might be an outlier, but I don't think its out of reality. The only Republican who has any sense beating Hagan is Pat McCrory, and he's now the Governor, so that's out. The top contenders of this field could decoy Hagan well, but not win.

It's not too weird -- PPP is a good pollster -- but there's just a strange disconnect between the approval numbers and the general election numbers and unexplained movement compared to the last poll. Even PPP comes out with outliers occasionally, especially long before the election.

I think a statewide official (Forest or Berry) could provide Hagan an actual challenge, but one of the Congressmen (Foxx, Ellmers, or McHenry) or Tillis would probably just be a decoy, unless 2014 is a very strong Republican year. Hopefully we'll get one of the first two -- a freshman Senator in a Romney state deserves a legitimate challenger.

The key for the 2014 elections, I think, is to keep the elections on Romney territory. (Generally; obviously, good opportunities in other states shouldn't be passed over. In general.) Win or not, having the competition be in right-wing areas will shift national dialogue as a whole to the right, as Democrats try not to sabotage their candidates. This will be positive.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2013, 08:59:08 pm by Vosem »Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2013, 09:04:52 pm »

Hagan should definately be challenged, but pecking order may doom that more then anything else. It doesn't help that Tillis (who is a bad candidate to begin with) probably has delayed everything with his "After the legislative season bs". Candidates are waiting to see what he he does and whether its Forest or Berry, or even my two regional based favorites, Fetzer and Pendergraff, they need to get started now. Especially the final two who have to introduce themselves to the other side of the state.

Any of the four could beat her, but they need an early start.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2013, 10:43:19 am »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-07-10

Summary: D: 50%, R: 37%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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