This looks like a pretty significant swing left compared to the last poll...what caused it? And the general election numbers look a bit stronger than expected for a Senator with a 42/39 approval rating in a state that tilts the other way. Seems Forest leads in the primary and is the strongest general election candidate (this was the case for Berry last time, too).
This seems like an outlier to me. Hagan's ahead, but she's not that far ahead.
Well, it might be an outlier, but I don't think its out of reality. The only Republican who has any sense beating Hagan is Pat McCrory, and he's now the Governor, so that's out. The top contenders of this field could decoy Hagan well, but not win.
It's not too weird -- PPP is a good pollster -- but there's just a strange disconnect between the approval numbers and the general election numbers and unexplained movement compared to the last poll. Even PPP comes out with outliers occasionally, especially long before the election.
I think a statewide official (Forest or Berry) could provide Hagan an actual challenge, but one of the Congressmen (Foxx, Ellmers, or McHenry) or Tillis would probably just be a decoy, unless 2014 is a very strong Republican year. Hopefully we'll get one of the first two -- a freshman Senator in a Romney state deserves a legitimate challenger.
The key for the 2014 elections, I think, is to keep the elections on Romney territory. (Generally; obviously, good opportunities in other states shouldn't be passed over. In general.) Win or not, having the competition be in right-wing areas will shift national dialogue as a whole to the right, as Democrats try not to sabotage their candidates. This will be positive.
