2014 Senatorial Predictions

[Del Tachi]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R)
Hawaii special: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Mark Keenum (R)
Montana: Marc Racicot (R)
Nebraska: Adrian Smith (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsay Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant (D)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

[Del Tachi]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Phil Gingrey (R)
Hawaii special: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (R+1)
Nebraska:  Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) (+1)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant (D)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Republicans pick up three seats, so Senate composition come 2015 is 52-47 favoring the Democrats.

Landrieu and Tennant squeak-out victories in their respective states.

[Del Tachi]

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions (R); SAFE R
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R); TOSSUP (+1)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R); LIKELY R (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D); LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D); SAFE D
Georgia: Jack Kingston (R); LIKELY R
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa (D); SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R); SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D); SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D); LIKELY D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R); SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R); LIKELY R
LA: Bill Cassidy (R); TOSSUP (+1)
ME: Susan Collins (R); SAFE R
MI: Gary Peters (D); LEAN D
MS: Thad Cochran (R); SAFE R
MT: Steve Daines (R); LEAN R
NH:  Jeanne Shaheen (D); LIKELY D
NJ: Cory Booker (D); SAFE D
NM: Tom Udall (D); SAFE D
NC: Thom Tillis (R); TOSSUP (+1)
OK: Jim Inhofe (R); SAFE R
OK-S:  James Lankford (R); SAFE R
SC: Lindsey Graham (R); SAFE R
SC-S: Tim Scott (R); SAFE R
SD: Mike Rounds (R); LIKELY R (+1)
WV: Shelly Moore Capito (R); LEAN R (+1)
WY: Mike Enzi (R); SAFE R

7 GOP Pickups result in a switch in Senate control; 52R-47D

[Del Tachi]

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 

[Del Tachi]

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 

Your projection is actually +4 (51-49 Dem), WV is democratic right now - if Capito wins it would be a pickup.

Also, Hagan's margin of victory in 2008 was actually bigger than Landrieu's- Hagan won by 8.5%, Landrieu won by just 6.4% (Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent democrat in 2008). Obviously Pryor won by a lot more than Hagan did, but that was only because Pryor had no major party opposition last time - he ran against a green party candidate - rather than because of anything Pryor had done or not done as Senator. As it was, that Green Party candidate got 20.5% of the vote (a very strong third-party performance), so there was a movement against him even then.

But I said that Tennant wins...so WV is not a pickup. 

[Del Tachi]

I'll be updating my prediction after the June 24th Mississippi runoff.  If McDaniel wins, that alone probably flips MS, AK, AR, KY and NC from GOP to the Democrats.

[Del Tachi]

Also, Del Tachi, if the GOP would lose 5 Senate seats due to McDaniel, wouldn't GOP leaders in the state be more concerned and not talking about "dialing back" help to Cochran?  Wouldn't they be panicked/horrified and do everything possible to help him?

First of all, not all national groups are letting their foot off the gas in the runoff, and we can expect in-state groups to ramp-up their efforts.

As for your argument, I don't think the national GOP even realizes how much this guy is a disaster waiting to happen.  Except for the week of the nursing home incident, McDaniel's campaign has been relatively low-profile.  If he wins the primary, the heat of the spotlight most definitely intensifies on McDaniel - national Democratic organizations and liberal media will not let a single breath out of McDaniel's mouth undissected and uncritcized.  McDaniel probably already has said dozens of highly objectional soundbites at his campaign events so far, its just that the national liberal establishment isn't listening like the way they will be after June 24th (should he win).

Also, the people at the NRSC probably suffer from the same one-dimensional, not-backed-in-any-sort-of-reality mindset of "it's Mississippi - Republicans will always win elections there, derrrrr."  

To them and y'all:  Jim Hood just called.   


As for how many seats McDaniel costs the GOP, I'm going to be honest and say I honestly don't know but it could get pretty ugly for the Republicans.  

Mitch McConnell being tied so intricately to the national Republican Party means that any major gaffes from any Tea Party backed candidates will probably hit him the hardest.  Couple that with McConnell's history as a serial underperformer and ALG's strong candidancy and I think that probably puts McConnell at the top of McDaniel's "friendly fire" list.

Bizarre comments about rape or other women's issues from McDaniel would probably stand to benefit female Democratic incumbents, and this could make Hagan and Landrieu favorites if the gaffe is repulsive enough.  Could also help ALG, Tennant and Nunn.  

Arkansas and Alaska are close anyway, so the GOP doesn't really have the luxury of having the crazy-ass things Chris McDaniel says blasted on Morning Joe and BuzzFeed.  

Now, please don't get me wrong:  Its not like voters in Colorado and Michigan will go into the polling booth on election day with Chris McDaniel's comments in the back of their heads (well, not most of them at least) but a particularly bad gaffe exploited properly by national Democrats would be enough to drive up liberal turnout which typical lags behind in midterm years.  Thus, a McDaniel nomination helps raise the Democrats' chances in every single race this year.  

[Del Tachi]

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (D) def. Mark Begich (D) TOSSUP
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) LEAN R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def.  Kevon Wade (D) SAFE D
Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LIKELY R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) def. Bruce Braley (R) TOSSUP
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  LIKELY R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LEAN D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden LIKELY D (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) LIKELY D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) def. Kay Hagan (D) TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) LIKELY D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) SAFE R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) LIKELY D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+8