SC-1 special election - May 7th

[Tender Branson]

SuperPAC Poll, Pre-Primary: Sanford 49, Bostic 36

    A new poll by newly formed S.C. super PAC, Conservative Solutions, shows Sanford as a shoo-in.

    Its survey of likely voters on Saturday and Sunday indicates that in a head-to-head race, Sanford would take nearly 49 percent and Bostic about 36 percent. Nearly 15 percent are undecided, according to the survey, which has a 5 percent margin of error. Grooms’ strongholds would also favor Sanford, particularly Berkeley County, the survey shows.

    “If the results hold true, Mark Sanford will fill Tim Scott’s congressional seat,” said Luke Byars, a longtime S.C. Republican strategist hired to do the survey. “Sanford’s back-to-the-basic message of restoring fiscal sanity to Washington is working.”

The Conservative Solutions PAC filed papers with the Federal Election Commission on February 4. Byars told the Packet that the PAC’s purpose is to support conservative candidates, and that it has not donated money to any candidate to date.

Keep in mind, this poll was conducted before the primary, so when respondents were asked about the Sanford-Bostic matchup, it was theoretical.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/343565/superpac-poll-pre-primary-sanford-49-bostic-36

[Nhoj]

Having bostic that close in a pre primary Poll should be a cause for some concern for sanford.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I think this is not yet a done deal for Sanford.

We'll know more after the PPP poll next week.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/316351504674086914

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Great news!

[Mehmentum]

Yes!

[Maxwell]

That's probably right about this point: Republicans and Independents in the region are exploring the possibility of voting for Colbert Busch because they are unsatisfied with Sanford. Whether she is able to keep that support until the end is questionable, but it's certainly a possibility.

[DrScholl]

Poll results are in

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/ppps-first-look-at-the-special-election-in-south-carolinas-1st-congressional-district-finds-a-toss-up-race-democrat-elizabet.html

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[minionofmidas]

Poll results are in

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/ppps-first-look-at-the-special-election-in-south-carolinas-1st-congressional-district-finds-a-toss-up-race-democrat-elizabet.html

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[Tender Branson]

As nice as it would be, the Republicans will probably still win this.

Republicans will likely come home in the special election and vote for them with 90%+ (now just mid-70s).

Bostic easier than Sanford I think.

Also, Tim Scott could campaign with the eventual candidate, which might boost him.

[DINGO Joe]

Also, Tim Scott could campaign with the eventual candidate, which might boost him.

Aren't Republicans big on touting "responsibility"?  Sanford abandoned his job--went AWOL for the nookie.  You didn't see the great Bill Clinton stop working just because he was getting some.  If Tim Scott campaigned with Sanford it would just be another two faced betrayal of so called Republican "values".

[Earthling]

What else is new?

As long as you are a loyal Republican they don't really care what you do. Are you a RINO or, God-forbid, a DemocRAT, then you should burn in hell for all you sins.

[DrScholl]

It's important to note that Linda Ketner came very close in this district in 2008, albeit that district included Horry County and the new one includes Beaufort. And that was against an incumbent with no baggage. Some of Colbert Busch's donors are straight line Republican voters, yet are supportive of her.

[publicunofficial]

I think Colbert-Busch has a STRONG chance of winning the special election. Whether she keeps it in November 2014 is a very very different matter.

[Horus]

From Jefferson losing in LA to Hochul winning in upstate NY to the old Weiner seat, special elections such as this are actually quite likely to elect the unexpected. I predict a 1% Busch win right now, and she will almost certainly lose in 2014

[socaldem]

This is going to be very interesting because if it weren't for his personal issues, Sanford would be very well positioned for the district (which he used to represent). He's a mainstream GOPer who is more a country club GOPer than a social con...

Ideally for Colbert-Busch, she beats Sanford now and then a social-con like Bostic in 2014. The district has many social cons but there are also many suburban types in Hilton Head and Charleston who likely won't want to be represented by an embarrassing yahoo.

I see similarities in the Democratic coalition that would need to form in this district with the surprisingly close NC-09 race, as well as districts like VA-02 and AR-02... combining core Dem constituencies (blacks, urban whites) with business-minded, socially moderate traditional GOPers (areas that may have even been GOP in the solid South days).

If Linda Ketner could almost win against Brown, I have no doubt Colbert-Busch could also put up a fight.

[krazen1211]

This poll is a repeat of:

Unexpected -- @PPPolls poll for dKos of NV-02: it's a one-point race. Full results tomorrow morning.

https://twitter.com/markos/status/105700143734595585

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

This poll is a repeat of:

Unexpected -- @PPPolls poll for dKos of NV-02: it's a one-point race. Full results tomorrow morning.

https://twitter.com/markos/status/105700143734595585

If it's Bostic who makes it, this sounds about right. But Sanford's, very obviously, a candidate with a checkered past who will lose the family values vote. Busch already has 21% of "somewhat conservatives" voting for her and 68% of moderates going for her. Of course this race certainly tilts toward Sanford, but don't count out Busch.

[RogueBeaver]

He's expected to win.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/south-carolina-mark-sanford-elizabeth-colbert-busch-showdown-expected-89497.html?hp=t1

[minionofmidas]

This poll is a repeat of:

Unexpected -- @PPPolls poll for dKos of NV-02: it's a one-point race. Full results tomorrow morning.

https://twitter.com/markos/status/105700143734595585

If it's Bostic who makes it, this sounds about right. But Sanford's, very obviously, a candidate with a checkered past who will lose the family values vote. Busch already has 21% of "somewhat conservatives" voting for her and 68% of moderates going for her. Of course this race certainly tilts toward Sanford, but don't count out Busch.

The intelligent thing would be for a Republican to be seriously worried and for a Democrat to not be getting their hopes up in any way - it's quite probable that Krazen is right, after all.

[Brittain33]

The intelligent thing would be for a Republican to be seriously worried and for a Democrat to not be getting their hopes up in any way - it's quite probable that Krazen is right, after all.

Yes, I still find it hard to believe Sanford will win. There's too much possibility for volatility here.

To be specific, I'm thinking of the primary.

[DrScholl]

Colbert Busch is not that far away from 50% against Sanford in the poll, whereas the NV-2 poll had Marshall in the low 40% range. It can be argued that the undecideds would break for Bostic, but as far as Sanford goes, there is no telling how they could break. Plus, Sanford's approvals are horrible, whereas Amodei was never double digits underwater. Sanford vs. Colbert Busch would be a competitive race.

[DrScholl]

New internal poll for Colbert Busch

http://colbertbuschforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/PollMemo.ECB_.f.040113.pdf

Colbert Busch 47
Sanford 44

Colbert Busch 48
Bostic 39

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This is an absolute nightmare.  Sanford obviously is clueless to the fact that he can never win an election again, and we get Stephen Colbert's sister in Congress.  Isn't one comedian (albeit an election thief) in Washington enough?
But in all seriousness, since I believe SC is open primary, I expect a lot of Democrats to cross over to suplort Sanford.

[Incipimus iterum]

Anything's possible at this point turnout will be a factor in the runoff and the general election, but don't count Sanford out yet he might do better then expected.

[publicunofficial]

New internal poll for Colbert Busch

http://colbertbuschforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/PollMemo.ECB_.f.040113.pdf

Colbert Busch 47
Sanford 44

Colbert Busch 48
Bostic 39

Why are Bostic's numbers so low?