SC-1 special election - May 7th

[nclib]

I wonder if Jim DeMint or Nikki Haley have any regrets. I'm not sure I agree with comparing Sanford to Akin--the former is more scandalous but less ideologically extreme.

[xavier110]

I'm not sure I agree with comparing Sanford to Akin--the former is more scandalous but less ideologically extreme.

Eh, more the perceived political taintedness, the conservative area, and the close polling at the end.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I agree with comparing Sanford to Akin--the former is more scandalous but less ideologically extreme.

Eh, more the perceived political taintedness, the conservative area, and the close polling at the end.

The thing is, the momentum is moving towards Sanford, whereas with Akin the polling was always close until the very end.

[Keystone Phil]

Final PPP has Sanford up by one. Ten point reversal in two weeks.

I think he takes it at this point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/TheFix/status/331042440314241024

In talking with D and R strategists over past 24 hours, consensus is that Mark Sanford is the momentum candidate. Amazing.

Usually, "the momentum candidate" wins such elections. We will see.

The 1964 election was just a few years too early for Goldwater.

[DrScholl]

As with all close races, it's about the approval, if Sanford is still underwater, Colbert Busch takes it, as that is usually how very close races hinge on. And, there's the fact that Sanford people are comparing Colbert Busch to Lizzie Borden in videos that makes me he's still not in good shape.

[Maxwell]

I feel like this could go a number of ways. Remember, Akin was the "momentum" candidate in his race too.

No. He was not. Maybe in terms of endorsements he was, but polling throughout showed, quite inaccurately, a close race, with only one poll accurately pointing to a landslide election (Survey USA).

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the full poll.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/05/sanford-has-momentum-in-sc-1.html

[NVGonzalez]

If Sanford wins we can now know why Congress sucks as much as it does.

[xavier110]

I feel like this could go a number of ways. Remember, Akin was the "momentum" candidate in his race too.

No. He was not. Maybe in terms of endorsements he was, but polling throughout showed, quite inaccurately, a close race, with only one poll accurately pointing to a landslide election (Survey USA).

You're wrong. Akin was perceived to have the momentum in the end.

[tmthforu94]

I am really loving this race.  If either candidate wins right now, the republican party loses.  With one, you lose a district which is a safe republican district to a liberal democrat, and with the other, you get a Todd Akin in congress who can run later for a senate seat and lose to another democrat.

While neither are good candidates, I think it's for very different reasons, so it's a little unfair to compare the two.

[Maxwell]

I feel like this could go a number of ways. Remember, Akin was the "momentum" candidate in his race too.

No. He was not. Maybe in terms of endorsements he was, but polling throughout showed, quite inaccurately, a close race, with only one poll accurately pointing to a landslide election (Survey USA).

You're wrong. Akin was perceived to have the momentum in the end.

I realized we were discussing just PPP and you are correct but PPP was so chronically inaccurate about that particularly Senate race, but it wasn't a huge clear shift upward like Sanford's was. Akin went up by 2 measily points and Sanford jumper cable'd 10 points.

[Miles]

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Yikes. Props to Sanford though.

[Eraserhead]

Sanford will win (narrowly). Not really all that surprising. It should be fun to watch on Tuesday though.

[Miles]

The Fix's 5 reasons why Sanford could win:

1- Its a Republican district (not a socon district, but Republican nonetheless).
2- Sanford is still a Republican.
3- Sanford is a good politician/communicator.
4- Charleston is Sanford's base. This was pretty interesting:

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5- Colbert Busch's campaign has been okay, but not top-notch.

[smoltchanov]

It seems to me Sanford has at least some success in "nationalizing" this election. In addition - ECB may be simply too liberal for about R+11 district: comparable districts elect (and even then - barely) such Democrats as Barrow and McIntyre, and she is substantially to the left of them.

[Miles]

It seems to me Sanford has at least some success in "nationalizing" this election. In addition - ECB may be simply too liberal for about R+11 district: comparable districts elect (and even then - barely) such Democrats as Barrow and McIntyre, and she is substantially to the left of them.

I don't know if NC-07 or GA-11 are very compatible with SC-01, despite the similar PVIs.

I'd say SC-01 would be more like NC-09.

[smoltchanov]

It seems to me Sanford has at least some success in "nationalizing" this election. In addition - ECB may be simply too liberal for about R+11 district: comparable districts elect (and even then - barely) such Democrats as Barrow and McIntyre, and she is substantially to the left of them.

I don't know if NC-07 or GA-11 are very compatible with SC-01, despite the similar PVIs.

I'd say SC-01 would be more like NC-09.

May be so. SC-01 seems to be somewhat less socially conservative then NC-07 (and, probably, GA-12 too), but may be even more fiscally conservative.

[Tender Branson]

Time for predictions ?

Mine:

50.3% Mark Sanford (R)
48.1% Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D)
  1.6% Eugene Platt (G)

[wan]

Mark Sanford will win because it's in South Carolina. Can't wait to see who get's the women vote.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wonder what his fellow House Republicans will do if he is elected and then convicted of trespassing.

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/3085/rrhpmi-sc1-poll


Tied at 46.

Krazen, a little advice: don't be that guy who cherry-picks polls.

Needless to say, he ended up looking foolish after everything was said and done. This poll is inside the realm of possibility (after all, this is South Carolina, and ECB looked shaky in the debates), but I'd say this race leans Democratic after Sanford's implosion.

Mark Sanford is the best gift to the Democratic Party since Todd Akin.

Lol.

That poll has Colbert Busch up double digits in Beaufort County, which indicates that Sanford is in a very tough position. A mere tie in a Republican poll is not great news for Sanford at all.

As with all close races, it's about the approval, if Sanford is still underwater, Colbert Busch takes it, as that is usually how very close races hinge on. And, there's the fact that Sanford people are comparing Colbert Busch to Lizzie Borden in videos that makes me he's still not in good shape.

Spin machine in full gear.

The other change in "spin" will be from characterizing the district as one in which some "backbencher" Republican incumbent almost lost to a Democrat challenger to one that it is "blood red."

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This malicious or malicious-seeming glee over the possible return of Mark 'Appalachian Trail' Sanford to high elected office--even if one would generally be happier than not when Republican candidates no matter how tainted win--is...well, it's there, and that's all that I really think needs to be noted about it. I'm going to see if there's anything going on in the Massachusetts or Iceland threads.

[BigSkyBob]

I wonder what his fellow House Republicans will do if he is elected and then convicted of trespassing.

Something akin to what the Democrats did when Patrick Kennedy crashed his car in Washington? Though it was the middle of the night, and he was plastered, it occurred to Kennedy to assert Congressional immunity by claiming he on his way to his job.

[BigSkyBob]

This malicious or malicious-seeming glee over the possible return of Mark 'Appalachian Trail' Sanford to high elected office--even if one would generally be happier than not when Republican candidates no matter how tainted win--is...well, it's there, and that's all that I really think needs to be noted about it. I'm going to see if there's anything going on in the Massachusetts or Iceland threads.

As I said before, Sanford embraces the absurdities of Alice Rosenbaum without embraces the absurdities of so-called Libertarianism. I would not want a Congress with 435 Ron Pauls, but, I highly approve of having one. The same is true of the followers of Rosenbaum. Yes, I do have an attitude of malice towards the RNCC, which I consider part of the problem of Washington rather than part of the solution, and I am, outright giddy that at this point whatever happens on Tuesday they have embarrassed themselves badly. And, I consider Steven Colbert to be an especially obnoxious prick. Running his sister for Congress was a bit in your face, and, I am estactic that that decision may cost the Democrats this election.