Details of the Indies NOP poll...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Published in the Indie yesterday:

National: Lab 42, Con 30, LD 18
Predicted Turnout: 55% (that's less than Iraq folks...)

Regional TV area breakdowns:

Scottish & Border: Lab 41, Con 11, LD 18, Other 23
Tyne-Tees: Lab 59, Con 18, LD 6, Other 18
Yorkshire TV: Lab 41, Con 37, LD 11, Other 10
Granada: Lab 56, Con 24, LD 14, Other 6
Central TV: Lab 45, Con 31, LD 17, Other 6
Anglian TV: Lab 41, Con 37, LD 11, Other 10
Carlton: Lab 42, Con 32, LD 21, Other 5
Meridian: Lab 31, Con 41, LD 15, Other 10
West Country: Lab 28, Con 31, LD 27, Other 14
HTV: Lab 39, Con 26, LD 26, Other 9

Sample size: 953
Poll was heavily weighted by demographics yadda, yadda, yadda and likelyhood of voting.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd just like to make a few comments on this poll (and I've tried to indicate which georgraphical areas are covered by the TV regions)

NOP, The Independent, 16/2/05

National

Labour 42% (+4); Conservatives 30% (-2); Liberal Democrats 18% (-3) and Others 10%

TV Regions

SCOTTISH AND BORDER [Scotland and Cumbria (part)]

Labour 41% Conservatives 11% Liberal Democrats 18% Others 23%

TYNE TEES [North-East England and North Yorkshire (part)]

Labour 59% Conservatives 18% Liberal Democrats 6% Others 18%

GRANADA [North-West England]

Labour 56% Conservative 24% Liberal Democrats 14% Others 6%

YORKSHIRE [North Yorkshire (part); South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire plus East Midlands (North)]

Labour 41% Conservative 31% Liberal Democrats 20% Others 8%

HTV [Wales plus Avon and Somerset]

Labour 39% Conservatives 26% Liberal Democrats 26% Others 9%

CENTRAL [West Midlands and the Home Counties]

Labour 45% Conservatives 31% Liberal Democrats 17% Others 6%

ANGLIA [East Anglia and East Midlands (South)]

Labour 41% Conservative 37% Liberal Democrats 11% Others 10%

CARLTON [Greater London]

Labour 42% Conservatives 32% Liberal Democrats 21% Others 5%

WEST COUNTRY [South-West England]

Labour 28% Conservatives 31% Liberal Democrats 27% Others 14%

MERIDIAN [Southern and South-East England]

Labour 31% Conservative 41% Liberal Democrats 15% Others 10%

Comments

This poll has both good news and bad news for Labour. Labour’s 12-point lead over the Conservatives indicates that Tony Blair is heading for his third successive landslide victory with an overall majority of roughly 170; however, this poll is likely to overstate Labour’s actual lead by 3 or 4 points. Nevertheless, this would still see Labour re-elected with a comfortable three-figure majority of between 125 and 150]. However, the bad news for Labour is apathy! In this poll, only 59% of Labour supporters said that they would be definitely voting; compared with 69% of Conservative supporters and 64% of Liberal Democrat supporters. Blair is, therefore, right to warn his party against complacency; while Conservatives don’t seem too despondent about their chances. Traditionally, Conservative supporters tend to turn out in larger numbers than their counterparts – but Labour will do better as long as the weather’s fine!

In rural areas of England, Labour may be vulnerable to a backlash against the ban on fox hunting; in much the same way as in Cumbria back in 2001 as a result of foot-and-mouth. However, in the grand scheme of things, few Labour constituencies are predominantly rural. Besides many rural voters are probably as passionately anti-fox hunting as urbanites

Regional Comments

1.   Scottish and the Border – the political colours of Scotland will not radically alter and Labour can be expected to maintain their grip on central and urban Scotland, with the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists sharing rural areas. I can’t see the Conservatives gaining much, if any, ground. In Cumbria, the Conservatives are certain to hold Penrith and the Border
2.   Tyne Tees – Labour’s northern heartland looks safe enough and the Conservatives can be expected to hold the ‘marginal’ constituency of Hexham (Labour came within 222 votes of winning it back in 1997), as well as the safe seat of Richmond. The Liberal Democrats should hold Berwick – but this poll does not bode well for their chances of causing electoral upsets in their target seats of Durham City (yours truly’s turf!) and Newcastle Central. However, in my opinion, this poll does underestimate support for the Liberal Democrats and grossly overestimates support for minor parties (unless the figures are the wrong way round that is!). I know Tyne Tees is solid Labour, but I think the Labour over the Tories lead is not as high as 41-points. Still the Tories can expect no joy in my neck of the woods! Labour on course for clean sweep of Cleveland, Durham and Tyne & Wear
3.   Granada – The North-West of England is, traditionally, the region where UK General Elections are won and lost, due to its, historically, large quantity of Labour-Conservative marginals. However, strong polling by Labour suggests that they will consolidate their hold in this region. The Liberal Democrats will not get that parliamentary breakthrough in their local government stronghold of Liverpool. However, Labour needs to guard against voter apathy is this part of urban England (as well as in Manchester, where, locally, the Liberal Democrats have been gaining ground). Fortunes for the Conservative party are unlikely to improve on current standing, unless the Labour lead of 32-points is artificially high
4.   Yorkshire – On the face of it, Labour seem to be polling relatively weaker here than just about anywhere else. However, this region is electorally pretty polarised and the Conservatives should hold their own in rural North and East Yorkshire together with Lincolnshire; while Labour will almost certainly continue to dominate South Yorkshire. All eyes will be on West Yorkshire where recent local government elections have left Labour with a bloody nose; however, Labour should more or less hold their own in Bradford and Leeds; though their environs may see the Conservatives gain one or two seats such as Pudsey and Shipley. Nevertheless, there could be some surprises!
5.   HTV – Labour will continue to be the major player in this region due to their monolithic presence in South Wales; while, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru can be expected to hold their own. Labour are vulnerable to Plaid Cymru in Carmarthenshire and Yns Mon; while the Conservatives can only hope for Monmouth. In Labour should maintain their grip on Bristol, while in Somerset the Tories and the Liberal Democrats will be slugging it out
6.   Central – Labour is still polling well in the West Midlands but the biggest threat to Labour, here, will be apathy among its supporters. Can they keep the Muslim vote on side? The Home Counties are more favourable turf for the Conservatives. At this stage, however, a Conservative breakthrough, across the region as a whole, is unlikely. The Liberal Democrats may pick up the odd urban seat, should Labour support plummet due to disaffected Labour voters staying at home, so there could be some surprises in the urban West Midlands
7.   Anglia – Labour is still polling well in this region, which largely shunned the party until 1997. There will be some closely fought Labour-Tory fights in Norfolk, Suffolk and Northamptonshire – but at this point it time, its advantage Labour. The Liberal Democrats have little to gain in this Labour-Tory region
8.   Carlton – Few could deny that Labour performed exceptionally well in Greater London in both the 1997 and 2001 elections and nowhere was this more marked than in North West London. Can the party hold on to this support? At this point, yes because the party has benefited from demographic trends. Rather surprisingly, Labour may be more vulnerable in inner London, especially if turnout plummets. The Liberal Democrats have had a breakthrough in the leafy south-west suburbs at the expense of the Conservatives and will now target discontent in Labour’s traditional inner London heartland. Tory gains are more likely to be in the northeast and southeast suburbs, with seats like Hornchurch well within their reach. As if with so many Labour marginals, whether they fall, or not, will depend on the popularity of the MP
9.   West Country – At this stage, this region is the nearest we have to a three-way fight with all three main parties polling relatively strongly. Labour should maintain its hold on urban areas; while, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats slugging it out in rural constituencies. On the face of it, there is little in this region for Labour to gain and much for the Conservatives to lose. My money is still on the Tories to come out on top overall, but will UKIP have an impact?
10.   Meridian – There was a time when Labour hadn’t a hope in hell of performing in this region and it had long been dominated by the Conservatives; however, 1997 saw Labour gain unprecedented levels of success in Kent and Sussex; while, regaining urban areas of Hampshire. However, it is this region where issues such as asylum and immigration will have much saliency. Tory Leader, Michael Howard is still a pretty safe bet to hold Folkestone and Hythe but if Labour supporters vote tactically for the Liberal Democrat candidate, then he is in trouble. However, with the Liberal Democrats polling relatively miserably in this region hopes of further gains are unlikely. Nevertheless, incumbent MPs, Labour or Tory, should hold their own, but the Tories can be assured that their largest delegation in the Commons will be from this region

Dave

[Notre Dame rules!]

Why is it that liberals, of all nationalities, tend to be fair weather voters? 

Oh well, I'll pray for rain.  Gotta help the Tories out any way I can.

[Silent Hunter]

Wasn't this taken during Labour Spring Conference?