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Author Topic: 2016 Primary Map Thread  (Read 154628 times)
JonathanSwift
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« Reply #525 on: March 10, 2016, 03:04:42 pm »
« edited: March 10, 2016, 06:27:51 pm by عبدالله الحظرد »

Kasich takes the lead in Ohio, as per Fox News. MBQF Consulting polls Arizona; Smith Johnson Research polls California; Opinion Savvy polls Florida; We Ask America polls Illinois; Civitas polls North Carolina; Harper polls Pennsylvania.


Donald Trump: 37 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 8 (7) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 25-20 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 43-23 Trump-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 33-20 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 32-26 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 34-29 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz

-----

Territories:

PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #526 on: March 11, 2016, 01:42:40 pm »

Clinton up big in MD, FL, NC. Narrowly in Missouri.


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  59-27 Clinton
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 61-28 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 50-48 Sanders (actual result)
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 83-16 Clinton (actual result)
MO - 47-40 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 58-34 Clinton
OH - 52-43 Clinton
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 57-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #527 on: March 11, 2016, 10:45:07 pm »

Baltimore Sun polls Maryland; Fort Hayes University polls Missouri; SUSA polls North Carolina.


Donald Trump: 37 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 8 (7) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 25-20 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 43-23 Trump-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 33-20 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 48-28 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 34-29 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz

-----

Territories:

PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
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Wulfric
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« Reply #528 on: March 12, 2016, 11:26:11 am »

20 point victory for Hillary in the Northern Mariana Islands.


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  59-27 Clinton
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 61-28 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 50-48 Sanders (actual result)
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 83-16 Clinton (actual result)
MO - 44-40 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 58-34 Clinton
OH - 52-43 Clinton
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 57-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)
Northern Mariana Islands - 54-34 Clinton (actual result)
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #529 on: March 12, 2016, 11:40:11 am »

TBH I would use this map:



Red 30% - Clinton leading by <10%
Red 50% - Clinton leading by >10%
Red 90% - Clinton wins

Green 30% - Sanders leading by <10%
Green 50% - Sanders leading by >10%
Green 90% - Sanders wins
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #530 on: March 12, 2016, 11:55:26 am »

TBH I would use this map:



Red 30% - Clinton leading by <10%
Red 50% - Clinton leading by >10%
Red 90% - Clinton wins

Green 30% - Sanders leading by <10%
Green 50% - Sanders leading by >10%
Green 90% - Sanders wins

I'm not. The color scheme I'm using allows you to see easily that her 11 point lead in CA is nothing like her 33 point lead in MD, and the key is very clear.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #531 on: March 12, 2016, 11:57:47 am »

11% and 33% are like the same thing this far out
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Wulfric
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« Reply #532 on: March 12, 2016, 12:03:25 pm »

11% and 33% are like the same thing this far out

Uh, you are aware that MD and CA are in completely different places on the calendar, right? A 33 point lead a month and a half out (MD), and an 11 point lead 3 months out (CA) are different.

I don't see any reason to change except "it's easier to create", and I'm not concerned about that. Thanks for the suggestion, but I'll be sticking with what I have.
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Mallow
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« Reply #533 on: March 12, 2016, 12:19:39 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2016, 01:42:18 pm by Mallow »

11% and 33% are like the same thing this far out

Uh, you are aware that MD and CA are in completely different places on the calendar, right? A 33 point lead a month and a half out (MD), and an 11 point lead 3 months out (CA) are different.

I don't see any reason to change except "it's easier to create", and I'm not concerned about that. Thanks for the suggestion, but I'll be sticking with what I have.

So what about the other way around? Why are you favoring the ostensible difference between a yuge lead in a race that's coming soon vs. a pretty big lead in a race that's still far out, when one could reasonably argue that there is no real difference between a pretty big lead in a race that's coming soon vs. a yuge lead in a race that's still far out? Seems like there's always going to be something arbitrary about any choice such as this. And it's kinda annoying that blue and red are both being used for the same candidate.

EDIT: I realize my post came across as overly negative when I meant it to be more of a thought to ponder. I definitely appreciate the hard work that goes into updating these maps regularly, from both of you. Kiki
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #534 on: March 12, 2016, 01:36:37 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2016, 03:41:41 pm by عبدالله الحظرد »

Uncommitted delegates win the Republican caucus in the U.S. Virgin Islands, as per CNN.


Donald Trump: 37 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 8 (7) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State
Uncommitted: VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 25-20 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 43-23 Trump-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 33-20 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 48-28 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 34-29 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz

-----

Territories:

PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #535 on: March 12, 2016, 08:40:06 pm »

With 100% of precincts reporting, as per NYT, Cruz has won Wyoming. Additionally, a new Florida Atlantic University poll shows Rubio tied for second in his home state.


Donald Trump: 36 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 9 (8) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State
Uncommitted: VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 25-20 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 44-21-21 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 33-20 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 48-28 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 34-29 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 66-20 Cruz-Rubio

-----

Territories:

PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #536 on: March 12, 2016, 10:27:35 pm »

Rubio wins the District of Columbia with Kasich in a close second, as per NYT.


Donald Trump: 36 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 9 (8) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + DC + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State
Uncommitted: VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 25-20 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
DC 37-36 Rubio-Kasich
FL 44-21-21 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 33-20 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 48-28 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 34-29 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 66-20 Cruz-Rubio

-----

Territories:

PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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Shadows
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« Reply #537 on: March 12, 2016, 11:36:03 pm »

Uh, please explain exactly how it's a "fantasy world" to think that the multiple polls conducted within the last week are more relevant than one that started 5 weeks ago.

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It's not - You are right!
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Wulfric
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« Reply #538 on: March 13, 2016, 08:43:42 am »

Yougov: Clinton leads in OH and FL, but IL is gone.


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  62-34 Clinton
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL -  48-46 Sanders
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 61-28 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 50-48 Sanders (actual result)
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 83-16 Clinton (actual result)
MO - 44-40 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 58-34 Clinton
OH - 52-43 Clinton
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 57-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)
Northern Mariana Islands - 54-34 Clinton (actual result)
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #539 on: March 13, 2016, 10:11:39 am »

New YouGov poll of Florida, Illinois and Ohio shows Rubio falling to third in his home state, while Kasich is tied for first in Ohio.


Donald Trump: 36 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 9 (8) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + DC + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
Tie: 1 State
Uncommitted: VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 25-20 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
DC 37-36 Rubio-Kasich
FL 44-24 Trump-Cruz
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 38-34 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 48-28 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 33-33 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 66-20 Cruz-Rubio

-----

Territories:

PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #540 on: March 14, 2016, 12:15:46 am »

Uncommitted wins Guam, as per the Green Papers; NSON polls California; PPP polls North Carolina.


Donald Trump: 36 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 9 (8) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + DC + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
Tie: 1 State
Uncommitted: GU + VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 38-22 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
DC 37-36 Rubio-Kasich
FL 44-24 Trump-Cruz
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 38-34 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 44-33 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 33-33 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 66-20 Cruz-Rubio

-----

Territories:

GU 56-11 Uncommited-Cruz
PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #541 on: March 14, 2016, 06:51:40 am »

PPP:

OH: Clinton +5
IL: Clinton +3
MO: Sanders +1(!)
NC: Clinton +19
FL: Clinton +25

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  57-32 Clinton
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL -  48-45 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 61-28 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 50-48 Sanders (actual result)
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 83-16 Clinton (actual result)
MO - 47-46 Sanders
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 56-37 Clinton
OH - 46-41 Clinton
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 57-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)
Northern Mariana Islands - 54-34 Clinton (actual result)
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« Reply #542 on: March 14, 2016, 09:23:44 am »

According to the Washington Examiner, Robby Mook, Hillary Clintonís campaign manager said that Senator Bernie Sandersí surprise victory in Michigan earlier in the week after outspending Hillary in Michigan is a warning sign that it could happen again on Tuesday in Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois.

............................

According to the Centerís Larry Sabato Crystal Ball Clinton is predicted to win North Carolina with at least 65%, Florida with at least 64%, Illinois with 52%, and Sanders is predicted to win Ohio with 55% and Missouri with 53%.

https://pivotamerica.com/clintons-campaign-manager-warns-things-dont-look-good-clinton-ohio-missouri-illinois/

Internal Polls, maybe junk!

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #543 on: March 14, 2016, 10:15:37 am »

According to the Washington Examiner, Robby Mook, Hillary Clintonís campaign manager said that Senator Bernie Sandersí surprise victory in Michigan earlier in the week after outspending Hillary in Michigan is a warning sign that it could happen again on Tuesday in Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois.

............................

According to the Centerís Larry Sabato Crystal Ball Clinton is predicted to win North Carolina with at least 65%, Florida with at least 64%, Illinois with 52%, and Sanders is predicted to win Ohio with 55% and Missouri with 53%.

https://pivotamerica.com/clintons-campaign-manager-warns-things-dont-look-good-clinton-ohio-missouri-illinois/

Internal Polls, maybe junk!



Those aren't internal polls, they're projections based on who's already voted. It's a simple model, and probably not very accurate.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #544 on: March 14, 2016, 09:16:39 pm »

Opinion Savvy polls Florida; ARG polls Ohio.


Donald Trump: 36 (15) States
Ted Cruz: 9 (8) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + DC + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State
Uncommitted: GU + VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 38-22 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
DC 37-36 Rubio-Kasich
FL 44-26 Trump-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 38-34 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 44-33 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 44-38 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 66-20 Cruz-Rubio

-----

Territories:

GU 56-11 Uncommited-Cruz
PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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« Reply #545 on: March 15, 2016, 12:09:13 pm »

With 100% reporting, TRUMP has won the Northern Mariana Islands by a yuge margin, as per CNN.


Donald Trump: 36 (15) States + MP
Ted Cruz: 9 (8) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + DC + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State
Uncommitted: GU + VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 38-22 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
DC 37-36 Rubio-Kasich
FL 44-26 Trump-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 38-34 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 44-33 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 44-38 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 66-20 Cruz-Rubio

-----

Territories:

GU 56-11 Uncommited-Cruz
MP 73-24 Trump-Cruz
PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #546 on: March 16, 2016, 12:00:46 am »

Entering in tonight's results, aside from Missouri which is still not called.

Also, I will no longer update the polling, as I believe the nomination process is over. I will still update the map with final results as more states vote, as there are states that may vote for Bernie even though his candidacy is now hopeless.

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  65-33 Clinton (actual result)
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL -  50-49 Clinton (actual result)
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 61-28 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 50-48 Sanders (actual result)
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 83-16 Clinton (actual result)
MO - 47-46 Sanders
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 55-41 Clinton (actual result)
OH - 57-43 Clinton (actual result)
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 57-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)
Northern Mariana Islands - 54-34 Clinton (actual result)
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« Reply #547 on: March 16, 2016, 12:17:08 am »

And Clinton squeaks out Missouri.

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  65-33 Clinton (actual result)
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL -  50-49 Clinton (actual result)
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 61-28 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 50-48 Sanders (actual result)
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 83-16 Clinton (actual result)
MO - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 55-41 Clinton (actual result)
OH - 57-43 Clinton (actual result)
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 57-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)
Northern Mariana Islands - 54-34 Clinton (actual result)
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #548 on: March 16, 2016, 01:08:05 am »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 01:36:12 am by عبدالله الحظرد »

With 100% of precincts reporting in North Carolina, and 99% in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio, we can add three more states to the TRUMP column, while Kasich has won his home state. Missouri is still too close to call with 99% of precincts reporting, as per NYT.


Donald Trump: 36 (18) States + MP
Ted Cruz: 9 (8) States
Marco Rubio: 2 (1) States + DC + PR
Ben Carson: 2 States
John Kasich: 1 State
Uncommitted: GU + VI

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 43-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 36-34 Cruz-Trump
AR 33-31 Trump-Cruz
AZ 37-23 Trump-Cruz
CA 38-22 Trump-Cruz
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
DC 37-36 Rubio-Kasich
FL 46-27 Trump-Rubio
GA 39-24 Trump-Rubio
HI 42-33 Trump-Cruz
ID 45-28 Cruz-Trump
IL 39-30 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 48-23 Cruz-Trump
KY 36-32 Trump-Cruz
LA 41-38 Trump-Cruz
ME 46-33 Cruz-Trump
MD 34-25 Trump-Cruz
MA 49-18 Trump-Kasich
MI 37-25 Trump-Cruz
MN 37-29 Rubio-Cruz
MS 47-36 Trump-Cruz
MO 36-29 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 45-18-18 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
NC 40-37 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 47-36 Kasich-Trump
OK 34-28 Cruz-Trump
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 36-19 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 39-25 Trump-Cruz
TX 44-27 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-30 Trump-Kasich
VA 35-32 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 66-20 Cruz-Rubio

-----

Territories:

GU 56-11 Uncommited-Cruz
MP 73-24 Trump-Cruz
PR 74-14 Rubio-Trump
VI 100-0 Uncommitted
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #549 on: March 17, 2016, 03:35:17 pm »

I can't wait for Ben Carson to win Nebraska.
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