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  2016 Primary Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Primary Map Thread  (Read 156706 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #75 on: July 28, 2014, 07:50:59 pm »
« edited: July 28, 2014, 07:55:38 pm by eric82oslo »

RealClearPolitics is now including 37 GOP primary polls going back to the very first post-election 2016 poll in December 2012. Those who have lead the most times in these 37 polls are:

Chris Christie: 12 polls
Rand Paul: 6 polls
Marco Rubio: 6 polls (all of them being the 6 very first polls after the 2012 election)
Mike Huckabee: 4 polls
Ted Cruz: 1 poll
Jeb Bush: 0 polls/not a single one

Tied polls: 8 polls

Those who have lead the tied polls the most times are:

Rand Paul: 4
Jeb Bush: 4
Mike Huckabee: 3
Chris Christie: 2
Paul Ryan: 2
Rick Perry: 1 (the very last of the 37)

Now, if we include both the polls where one candidate has been on top alone as well as the leaders of the tied polls, the victor list of those 37 polls looks like this:

Chris Christie: 14 polls (38%)
Rand Paul: 10 polls (27%)
Mike Huckabee: 7 polls (19%)
Marco Rubio: 6 polls (16%)
Jeb Bush: 4 polls (11%)
Paul Ryan: 2 polls (5.4%)
Ted Cruz: 1 poll (2.7%)
Rick Perry: 1 poll (2.7%)

Thus, it seems to be a battle between these 8 candidates right now. Neither Walker, Santorum (despite being the 2012 runner up/"obvious heir") nor Jindal have ever lead a single 2016 primary poll yet. Walker's best poll was scoring 8% in June. Santorum's best poll showed him with 6% in November 2013. Jindal's best number was 6% in an October 2013 poll.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #76 on: November 22, 2014, 06:02:35 am »



Red: Jeb Bush
Blue: Chris Christie
Golden: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Pink: Ted Cruz
Green: Paul Ryan
Orange: Ben Carson
(Yellow: Marco Rubio)
White: tie or undecided
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #77 on: January 22, 2015, 01:31:28 pm »
« Edited: January 22, 2015, 09:45:46 pm by Mehmentum »

Several updates:

Paul Ryan has announced he isn't running, so his color (green) has been reallocated to Mitt Romney.  

Since Rand Paul's color is rather close to Huckabee's, I've decided to lighten it to yellow (sorry Rubio!).

Lastly, we've got the first batch of polls from 2015.

- New Jersey Quinnipiac poll with Christie in a rather weak lead.
- Iowa Gravis poll with Romney in the lead.
- Pennsylvania PPP poll with Carson in the lead.



Green: Mitt Romney
Red: Jeb Bush
Blue: Chris Christie
Yellow: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Pink: Ted Cruz
Orange: Ben Carson
White: tie or undecided
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #78 on: January 22, 2015, 08:02:59 pm »

I think right now, Jeb Bush would probably win the primaries.

Why would you think that when all the national polls that include Romney give him a significant lead:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary

The only reason why Romney isn't leading in most of the polls on this map is because the vast majority of these polls were taken before pollsters started including Romney in their matchups.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #79 on: January 22, 2015, 08:14:57 pm »




Green: Mitt Romney
Red: Jeb Bush
Blue: Chris Christie
Yellow: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Pink: Ted Cruz
Orange: Ben Carson
White: tie or undecided

Which reminds me, this map is wrong.  Go to Wikipedia to find the polls, and you'll see that the most recent polls in AR, CO, KS, MA, MI, and NH all have Romney in the lead.  You just didn't color them that way initially because you were only including the matchups without Romney.  But I guess you're now including them?
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #80 on: January 22, 2015, 09:40:14 pm »
« Edited: January 22, 2015, 09:43:37 pm by Mehmentum »




Green: Mitt Romney
Red: Jeb Bush
Blue: Chris Christie
Yellow: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Pink: Ted Cruz
Orange: Ben Carson
White: tie or undecided

Which reminds me, this map is wrong.  Go to Wikipedia to find the polls, and you'll see that the most recent polls in AR, CO, KS, MA, MI, and NH all have Romney in the lead.  You just didn't color them that way initially because you were only including the matchups without Romney.  But I guess you're now including them?

I wasn't updating the map after late 2013, so it wasn't really me that didn't color them that way (though I probably would have made the same decision as the posters who were updating the thread at the time) .  I wasn't aware that Romney was in the polls in those states.  I'll edit the original post.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #81 on: January 28, 2015, 06:07:34 pm »
« Edited: January 28, 2015, 09:10:07 pm by Mehmentum »

Gravis has Romney in leading in South Carolina. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206566.msg4467129;boardseen#new).

Romney now leads in the most recent polls for three of the four early primary states (and is there really any doubt that he's dominating in Nevada?).
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #82 on: January 30, 2015, 10:55:07 pm »

So I guess now the Romney states have to be colored with the second place finisher?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #83 on: January 31, 2015, 01:21:17 am »

That's probably what I'd expect in a Biden vs. Warren matchup...Warren winning IA and NH, but with Biden carrying SC due to loyalty among AAs for being Obama's VP. It would've been interesting to see how that would turn out (though Warren may not have run regardless of what Hillary did).

The one downside of Hillary already being the nominee is we get nothing to entertain us on the Dem side...luckily it's looking like the GOP primary will be entertaining enough to carry the extra weight.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #84 on: January 31, 2015, 06:38:03 pm »

I think Warren would win if Hillary didn't run and she decided to. She seems to have a lot of support behind her from liberal groups, while Biden is more of a background player.

In terms of the Republican primary, I was surprised that Carson is leading in NC. That poll was from December of last year, so I'm assuming that the situation hasn't changed dramatically.

I was also surprised Huckabee is leading in Oregon- I would have expected Oregon's Republicans to be moderate Christie supporters.

These Republican primaries are going to be quite a spectacle.
Oregon Republicans are actually solid social conservatives. North Carolina I can't put my finger on.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #85 on: January 31, 2015, 10:54:36 pm »

I think Warren would win if Hillary didn't run and she decided to. She seems to have a lot of support behind her from liberal groups, while Biden is more of a background player.

In terms of the Republican primary, I was surprised that Carson is leading in NC. That poll was from December of last year, so I'm assuming that the situation hasn't changed dramatically.

I was also surprised Huckabee is leading in Oregon- I would have expected Oregon's Republicans to be moderate Christie supporters.

These Republican primaries are going to be quite a spectacle.
Oregon Republicans are actually solid social conservatives. North Carolina I can't put my finger on.
North Carolina is a more conservative state, and Ted Cruz doesn't have much press in the state, so Carson is the next best pick. I guess that's a decent explanation.

I hardly think Carson counts as a "next best pick" to Cruz at this point, considering that Carson is ahead of Cruz in every recent state and national poll.  Cruz is far enough back in the pack that he's presumably trailing everywhere except Texas at this point.  The only reason why he's leading in six state polls in the map given in this thread is because those polls are all several months old.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #86 on: February 17, 2015, 07:52:43 pm »
« Edited: February 17, 2015, 07:58:23 pm by Jeg er Vilks. »

Hi, ssuperflash. THX for your maps, they're really great.
But could you choose a different color for South Carolina / Graham?
I first didn't realize that that color isn't gray, but instead a very light purple.

And a legend would be convenient, too.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #87 on: February 19, 2015, 01:09:57 pm »


At this juncture, South Carolina should be colored red.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #88 on: February 19, 2015, 03:50:53 pm »


I second this. And if Santorum ever leads in a state, he should be brown.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #89 on: February 27, 2015, 09:31:44 am »

This is btw what Atlas thinks the full map would look like at this juncture:


Delaware is the #1 State to watch.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #90 on: March 04, 2015, 04:30:38 pm »

Turning into:
Top tier: Walker - Bush
2nd Tier: Paul - Christie
3rd Tier: Cruz and the Huckster. 
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solarstorm
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« Reply #91 on: March 04, 2015, 08:27:32 pm »



NC: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_30415.pdf
GA: http://votergravity.com/georgia-presidential-flash-poll-results

Red: Jeb Bush
Green: Scott Walker
Blue: Chris Christie
Yellow: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Purple: John Kasich
Pink: Ted Cruz
Orange: Ben Carson
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #92 on: March 05, 2015, 04:00:50 am »



NC: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_30415.pdf
GA: http://votergravity.com/georgia-presidential-flash-poll-results

Red: Jeb Bush
Green: Scott Walker
Blue: Chris Christie
Yellow: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Purple: John Kasich
Pink: Ted Cruz
Orange: Ben Carson

Voter Gravity isn't scientific, it shouldn't be included.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #93 on: March 21, 2015, 08:45:20 am »



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solarstorm
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« Reply #94 on: March 23, 2015, 11:11:41 pm »


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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #95 on: March 24, 2015, 03:40:19 pm »


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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #96 on: March 27, 2015, 07:26:45 pm »


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solarstorm
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« Reply #97 on: March 31, 2015, 04:45:07 pm »


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solarstorm
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« Reply #98 on: April 15, 2015, 12:14:11 pm »

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solarstorm
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« Reply #99 on: April 17, 2015, 06:27:16 am »


Please note: I have added Marco Rubio to the legend and allocated the color orange to him, as he is an oompa loompa. In return, I gave the crazy doctor the color maroon.
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