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Author Topic: 2016 Primary Map Thread  (Read 153244 times)
Senator Cris
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« Reply #125 on: August 12, 2015, 05:32:44 am »



Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

OR is already a statistical tie.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #126 on: August 12, 2015, 01:04:45 pm »



Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

OR is already a statistical tie.
Does anybody have the numbers for South Dakota? I see it says Hillary ahead 30-49% on Wikipedia, but they don't have the poll anywhere in their list.
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« Reply #127 on: August 12, 2015, 05:27:52 pm »


I'm pretty sure Sanders already leads in 4+ states (VT, NH, WA, OR) and maybe already in MN/WI and some others like MT.

Montana wouldn't surprise me either. Warren did really well in that one poll from last year. I wonder if the Dakotas will be the same way.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #128 on: August 17, 2015, 02:15:00 am »

Here's the last month's worth of "polling" done via ISideWith.com by congressional district:

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #129 on: August 17, 2015, 04:17:11 am »
« Edited: August 17, 2015, 04:48:04 am by eric82oslo »

These are the results I got this time (last time I did it was a few months ago):

1. Hillary - 93% (8 policy issues)
2. Bernie - 92% (7 policy issues)
3. O'Malley - 79% (4 policy issues)
4. Jeb Bush - 51%
5. Rand Paul - 46%
6. Chris Christie - 36% (environment)
7. Bobby Jindal - 30%
8. Trump - 24%
9. Fiorina - 21% (environment)
10. Kasich - 20%
11. Graham - 16%
12. Huckabee - 12%
13. Rubio - 11%
13. Perry - 11% (environment)
15. Walker - 10%
16. Carson - 7%
17. Santorum - 4%
18. Cruz - 1%

I side most with Hillary on: healthcare, education, economy, domestic & Foreign policy
I side most with Sanders on: social policy
I side most with O'Malley on: immigration
I side most with Christie on: environment

On the parties I got this:

1. Democratic - 98%
2. Green - 94%
3. Socialist - 81%
4. Libertarians - 28%
5. Republicans - 11%
6. Constitution - 5%

Ops, wrong thread I see lol. Tongue
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Crumpets
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« Reply #130 on: August 17, 2015, 01:15:58 pm »

Here's the last month's worth of "polling" done via ISideWith.com by congressional district:


That's a pretty cool tool, although their Democratic primary results are... suspicious to say the least.



Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton

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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #131 on: August 17, 2015, 05:34:29 pm »

Here's the last month's worth of "polling" done via ISideWith.com by congressional district:


That's a pretty cool tool, although their Democratic primary results are... suspicious to say the least.



Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton



#FeeltheBern #Bernmentum #50statestrategy
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Crumpets
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« Reply #132 on: August 19, 2015, 05:43:20 pm »

Here's ISideWith's Democratic primary map by congressional district. Pretty unquestionably slanted in favor of Sanders, I think, but still pretty accurate as a PVI-style map. Instead of using all results from the past month, I chose the option for the most 1,000 recent votes from each district solely because it shows more contrast.

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Senator Cris
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« Reply #133 on: August 20, 2015, 07:11:51 am »



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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #134 on: August 22, 2015, 01:51:31 am »

Here's ISideWith's Democratic primary map by congressional district. Pretty unquestionably slanted in favor of Sanders, I think, but still pretty accurate as a PVI-style map. Instead of using all results from the past month, I chose the option for the most 1,000 recent votes from each district solely because it shows more contrast.



You would think Hillary would be leading in MO-1 considering it's giant African American population.    Silly internet polls.  Tongue
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #135 on: August 24, 2015, 10:33:13 pm »
« Edited: August 24, 2015, 10:36:16 pm by Srs Trump Supporter »

MO 01 for Sanders can be explained simply as Ferguson. Yes African Americans generally don't appreciate Sanders, but it is often cited it is because they are Democrats living in the real word looking for practical help, not a revolutionary candidate. Ferguson is not the real world. It was a militarized war zone in the middle of America. A revolution has taken place there. BLM was born there, and they have put out a platform mostly backed by Sanders. It's easy to take a monolithic voting group and extend it nationally, but when we see a deviation, it can help to find an explanation. I'm not saying this is certainly right, but it does make intuitive sense rather than dismissing it so quickly.

That being said, isidewith is a terrible measure of potential primary vote.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #136 on: August 26, 2015, 04:25:53 am »




Delegates allocation:

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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #137 on: September 05, 2015, 11:44:16 pm »

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 53-13-6-5 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 52-20 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-22 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-35 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 53-25 Clinton
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 42-35 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 55-15 Clinton
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 78-8 Clinton
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 50-30 Clinton
VT - 36-29 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #138 on: September 08, 2015, 10:17:12 pm »

Updated with new numbers in ID, NH, and SC


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 53-13-6-5 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 52-20 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-35 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 53-25 Clinton
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 49-38 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 55-15 Clinton
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 54-24-9 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 50-30 Clinton
VT - 36-29 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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« Reply #139 on: September 08, 2015, 10:21:38 pm »

Here's the last month's worth of "polling" done via ISideWith.com by congressional district:


That's a pretty cool tool, although their Democratic primary results are... suspicious to say the least.



Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton



I'm dying.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #140 on: September 10, 2015, 10:53:03 am »

IA realizes how stupid honoring a dynasty is.


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 53-13-6-5 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 52-20 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 41-40 Sanders
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 53-25 Clinton
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 49-38 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 55-15 Clinton
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 54-24-9 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 50-30 Clinton
VT - 36-29 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #141 on: September 13, 2015, 11:04:32 am »

New Numbers in IA, NH, SC, CA


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 52-20 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-33 Sanders
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 53-25 Clinton
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 52-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 55-15 Clinton
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 50-30 Clinton
VT - 36-29 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #142 on: September 14, 2015, 09:52:16 pm »

Adding the FL Gravis Poll


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 42-21-13 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-33 Sanders
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 53-25 Clinton
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 52-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 55-15 Clinton
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 50-30 Clinton
VT - 36-29 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
[/quote]
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #143 on: September 15, 2015, 09:10:29 pm »

Clinton gains in FL and NH


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-33 Sanders
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 53-25 Clinton
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 43-36 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 55-15 Clinton
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 50-30 Clinton
VT - 36-29 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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« Reply #144 on: September 15, 2015, 09:16:14 pm »

Wulfric, those maps include polls that are really old. Could you make a map just with polls of, say, just the past 1-2 months to get a better picture?
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #145 on: September 15, 2015, 09:53:20 pm »

Wulfric, those maps include polls that are really old. Could you make a map just with polls of, say, just the past 1-2 months to get a better picture?

The Republican map uses some polls that are pretty old (Off the top of my head, the ones showing Carson up in MD and Christie up in ME) as well. I can put an asterisk or something next to the old polls , but I'd rather have a map with as much data as possible than a mostly blank map with only recent polls.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #146 on: September 17, 2015, 07:15:13 pm »

New VT/NH polls


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-33 Sanders
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 53-25 Clinton
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 35-31 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 55-15 Clinton
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 50-30 Clinton
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #147 on: September 21, 2015, 04:12:56 pm »

MO and NY tighten, UT rejects the democratic dynasty complex.


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-33 Sanders
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 35-31 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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« Reply #148 on: September 22, 2015, 11:23:56 am »

Clinton jumps to a 21 point lead in IA.


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-22 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 35-31 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-15 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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« Reply #149 on: September 22, 2015, 11:19:36 pm »

I started this a few days ago, but never got around to posting it. Tonight, I updated the map with the latest polling available. I wanted to do this because initially, I suspected that based on what we've seen in cross-tabs in many polls, that there would be a substantial difference in how the white vote for each candidate looked when compared to the overall primary polls.

Where applicable, the numbers shown are derived from aggregate polling. 15% in polling is the threshold for a candidate to appear.

There isn't a uniform method here for calculations, given the fact that every poll differs in the amount of information provided:

  • In some cases, I have analyzed cross-tabs and found them to be inaccurate in terms of the share of the electorate when compared to the GE makeup of that state's electorate; as such, I've adjusted the numbers in these cases accordingly to more accurately reflect a presidential year primary make-up (assuming that the white share of the vote in all cases will be a slightly higher percentage in a primary than in the GE).
  • Some polls do not provide sufficient cross-tabs with respect to turnout by race, in which case, I use the map linked above as a baseline for determining the make-up the likely primary electorate.
  • Some polls may provide basic stats on the racial sampling of the polling, but may not provide breakdowns of each race's percentage of support for each candidate. In these cases, I used relevant polling data from other states and from national polls to project what the likely support by race is for each candidate in that state.

In all of these cases, once the preliminary figures are calculated, it becomes rather easy to calculate the likely white share of support for each candidate.



The first map in each series shows the percentage of support (color-coded) for the winning candidate in each state, as well as the results from one or more recent polls for other candidates who have at least 15% support in each state.

The second map shows the margin between the first place and second place candidate in each state.

9/18/15:



9/22/15:

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