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President Griffin
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« Reply #150 on: September 24, 2015, 05:33:54 am »
« edited: September 24, 2015, 05:40:31 am by Trumpenproletariat »

9/23/15: TX poll added



Assumes Democratic primary electorate will be 39% White, 36% Black, 25% Latino; assumes Clinton is pulling 65% among Blacks and that Latino support for Clinton/Biden matches statewide support levels
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« Reply #151 on: September 24, 2015, 05:37:16 am »

Your last map seems to have removed the 9/22 states (e.g., Utah, Missouri...).
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President Griffin
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« Reply #152 on: September 24, 2015, 05:39:08 am »

Your last map seems to have removed the 9/22 states (e.g., Utah, Missouri...).


Crap - I edited the wrong one. Fixed.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #153 on: September 24, 2015, 12:40:28 pm »

The Elon NC poll has Hillary winning whites 45-34 over Sanders. No Biden, though.
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« Reply #154 on: September 24, 2015, 05:35:34 pm »

New polls for NH and TX

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-22 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 46-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 55-19 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-21 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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President Griffin
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« Reply #155 on: September 24, 2015, 08:17:14 pm »

The Elon NC poll has Hillary winning whites 45-34 over Sanders. No Biden, though.

That's quite helpful. It's very interesting to see how well that tracks with my Georgia and Texas projections, and to a lesser extent, my SC & FL ones as well - it gives me a bit more confidence that I am doing an adequate job with my projections (at least within the confines of the quality of polling). Clinton certainly isn't doing all that well with white voters in the Deep South.



I've updated my map format so that I can more easily fit the stats within the confines of most states.

9/24/15: NC & NH polls added

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« Reply #156 on: September 25, 2015, 07:34:13 am »

Wonder why Hillary is doing so badly w/ white voters, it's not just among Democrats but with the general electorate as well she's doing far worse than Obama ever did.
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« Reply #157 on: September 25, 2015, 08:58:38 am »
« Edited: September 25, 2015, 01:44:45 pm by Speaker Cris »

1st place:



2nd place:





In states where Walker was leading (MN, WA, WI), the 2nd of that state is now the 1st. The 3rd is now the 2nd.
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« Reply #158 on: September 26, 2015, 12:01:15 pm »

North Carolina tightens

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-22 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 46-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 53-23 Clinton
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-21 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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« Reply #159 on: September 29, 2015, 01:15:42 pm »

Clinton struggling in NC!

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-22 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 46-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 37-30-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-21 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #160 on: September 30, 2015, 12:31:11 am »

Clinton struggling in MI! Biden really should get in.

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-22 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 35-28-22 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 46-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 37-30-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 53-21 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 44-32 Clinton
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #161 on: October 01, 2015, 11:12:48 am »

Even TX isn't in love with the democratic dynasty complex!

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 43-22 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 35-28-22 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 46-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 37-30-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 36-24 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 42-30 Clinton
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #162 on: October 04, 2015, 11:12:34 am »

New polls in IA and NH, first poll ever in LA

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 33-28 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 57-22-7 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MD - 72-9-6-3 Clinton/Biden/O'Malley/Warren
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 35-28-22 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 42-28 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 37-30-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 36-24 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 42-30 Clinton
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President Griffin
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« Reply #163 on: October 05, 2015, 11:20:39 pm »

10/5/15: Added first polls for WI & LA; new TX & SC polls correct seemingly unrealistically-high Sanders performance from previous polls; Clinton closes the gap a bit in NH; Biden breaks 15% in IA & Clinton/Sanders IA margin remains the same

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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #164 on: October 06, 2015, 10:19:00 am »

Clinton leads by only 20 points in minority dominated Maryland!

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 42-26 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 55-18 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 33-28 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 57-22-7 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MD - 43-23-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 35-28-22 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 42-28 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 37-30-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OH - 47-17 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 45-19 Clinton
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 36-24 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 42-30 Clinton
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« Reply #165 on: October 07, 2015, 09:18:43 am »

New polls in FL, PA, OH, CA. Clinton is collapsing!

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 40-31 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 43-19 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 33-28 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 57-22-7 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MD - 43-23-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 35-28-22 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 42-28 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 37-30-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OH - 40-21-19 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 36-25-19 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 36-24 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 42-30 Clinton
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #166 on: October 07, 2015, 10:26:09 am »

Your comments to polls are very objective, not partisan. Tongue
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Crumpets
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« Reply #167 on: October 07, 2015, 10:32:45 am »

Your comments to polls are very objective, not partisan. Tongue

pbrower should take note: include every poll, just make it's significance conform to your narrative.
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« Reply #168 on: October 08, 2015, 08:45:04 pm »


Which New Jersey poll are you referring to?
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #169 on: October 08, 2015, 09:27:10 pm »


I think he's looking at FDU's national poll.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #170 on: October 08, 2015, 09:31:29 pm »


Gah. I saw Farleigh Dickinson and immediately thought NJ. Post deleted.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #171 on: October 09, 2015, 01:00:25 am »
« Edited: October 09, 2015, 01:33:38 am by Trumpenproletariat »

One of my friends off-site has been tracking the polls in each state and keeping track of the pledged delegate totals based on the current DNC allocation method and (obviously) the current polls. He asked me to make a map of it, so I thought I'd share. Here is a Google Fusion Tables map that shows the details state-by-state (click on a state for more info; red translucent states are those for which we have no data).



Nominal:
Clinton 1730
Sanders 838

Two-Way:
Clinton 67.37%
Sanders 32.63%

Percentage of Pledged:
Clinton 45.90%
Sanders 22.23%

Percentage of All Delegates:
Clinton 38.59%
Sanders 18.69%
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #172 on: October 09, 2015, 01:39:12 pm »

Clinton recovering in NH?

Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AZ-  56-34 Clinton
AR - 71-8-5-3 Clinton/Biden/Cuomo/Warren
CA - 40-31 Clinton
CO - 59-21-8-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
CT - 53-15-8-2 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
FL - 43-19 Clinton
GA - 51-24 Clinton
ID - 44-24 Clinton
IL - 60-23 Clinton
IA - 33-28 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 57-22-7 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MD - 43-23-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MA - 43-16-10-6 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Sanders
MI - 35-28-22 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MN - 50-32 Clinton
MO - 36-22-18 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
MT - 42-34-6-3 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Webb
NV - 55-18 Clinton
NH - 33-30 Sanders
NJ - 63-15 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 37-30-17 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OH - 40-21-19 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 36-25-19 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
SC - 46-23 Clinton
TX - 36-24 Clinton
UT - 31-30 Sanders
VT - 48-11 Sanders
VA - 64-14 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 42-30 Clinton
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« Reply #173 on: October 09, 2015, 11:13:57 pm »

Doubt it (Gravis)
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« Reply #174 on: October 10, 2015, 12:08:56 am »

If it's close, in NH then the primary is theoretical over. Because Bernie has no other state other than Vt & NH. Why wouldn't Clinton win in NH, she won it in 2008, and state delegation are women.
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