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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #450 on: February 23, 2016, 06:06:03 pm »

Clinton up 28 in GA, 23 in NJ
 
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 43-26 Clinton
GA - 57-29 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 51-32 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 40-27 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 55-40 Clinton
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 55-28 Clinton
SC - 53-31 Clinton
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 54-44 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 56-34 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 45-43 Clinton
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #451 on: February 23, 2016, 07:47:45 pm »

Opinion Savvy polls Georgia; Rutgers polls New Jersey.


Donald Trump: 38 (2) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 40-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 27-20 Trump-Rubio
GA 34-22 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 28-15 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 50-16 Trump-Rubio
MI 35-17 Trump-Kasich
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 39-23 Trump-Cruz
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 30-25 Trump-Cruz
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 24-14 Trump-Cruz
RI 33-16 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 37-29 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 28-22 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 24-18 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #452 on: February 24, 2016, 08:16:23 am »

With 100% of precincts reporting, TRUMP has won Nevada nearly two-to-one, as per the New York Times.


Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 40-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 27-20 Trump-Rubio
GA 34-22 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 28-15 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 50-16 Trump-Rubio
MI 35-17 Trump-Kasich
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 30-25 Trump-Cruz
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 24-14 Trump-Cruz
RI 33-16 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 37-29 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 28-22 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 24-18 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #453 on: February 24, 2016, 12:22:14 pm »

Clinton gaining in TX, MD

Sanders leading in Ohio!!!!!
 
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 43-26 Clinton
GA - 57-29 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 51-32 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 58-28 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 45-44 Sanders
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 55-28 Clinton
SC - 53-31 Clinton
TN - 56-40 Clinton
TX - 54-44 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 56-34 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 45-43 Clinton
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #454 on: February 24, 2016, 04:34:00 pm »

New Oklahoma numbers, courtesy of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates; Emerson shows Cruz barely ahead in Texas.


Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 40-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 27-20 Trump-Rubio
GA 34-22 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 28-15 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 50-16 Trump-Rubio
MI 35-17 Trump-Kasich
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 29-21 Trump-Rubio
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 24-14 Trump-Cruz
RI 33-16 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 29-28 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 28-22 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 24-18 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #455 on: February 25, 2016, 11:40:35 am »

Master Image polls Alabama; Quinnipiac polls Florida; WABE polls Georgia; Franklin and Marshall polls Pennsylvania; Monmouth polls Texas.


Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 36-19 Trump-Rubio
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 44-28 Trump-Rubio
GA 41-18 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 28-15 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 50-16 Trump-Rubio
MI 35-17 Trump-Kasich
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 29-21 Trump-Rubio
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 22-16 Trump-Rubio
RI 33-16 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 38-23 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 28-22 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 24-18 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #456 on: February 25, 2016, 01:59:04 pm »
« Edited: February 25, 2016, 02:02:02 pm by Wulfric »

Sanders takes the lead in WI; First Ever RI Poll shows Clinton ahead. Clinton up 21 in PA.
  
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 43-26 Clinton
GA - 57-29 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 51-32 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 58-28 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 45-44 Sanders
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 53-31 Clinton
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 56-40 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 56-34 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #457 on: February 25, 2016, 02:31:10 pm »

Associated Industries of Florida polls the Sunshine State; Brown University polls Rhode Island; Monmouth polls Virginia; Marquette polls Wisconsin.


Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 36-19 Trump-Rubio
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 34-27 Trump-Rubio
GA 41-18 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 28-15 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 50-16 Trump-Rubio
MI 35-17 Trump-Kasich
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 29-21 Trump-Rubio
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 22-16 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 38-23 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 41-27 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #458 on: February 25, 2016, 04:08:14 pm »

Clinton up 27 in VA
 
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 43-26 Clinton
GA - 57-29 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 51-32 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 58-28 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 45-44 Sanders
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 53-31 Clinton
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 56-40 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 60-33 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #459 on: February 25, 2016, 08:54:30 pm »
« Edited: February 25, 2016, 10:02:16 pm by عبدالله الحظرد »

WBUR polls Massachusetts; Mitchell polls Michigan.


Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 36-19 Trump-Rubio
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 34-27 Trump-Rubio
GA 41-18 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 28-15 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 40-19-19 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
MI 41-19 Trump-Rubio
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 29-21 Trump-Rubio
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 22-16 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 38-23 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 41-27 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #460 on: February 26, 2016, 02:47:29 am »

I guess I'll post this here too.

This is a map of all polls conducted in February. If there was more than one, I averaged them. Utah was ambiguous but I gave it to Sanders. 30% shade = 1-10 point lead. 50% shade = 11-20 point lead. 90% shade = 20+ point lead.


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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #461 on: February 26, 2016, 09:13:34 am »

I guess I'll post this here too.

This is a map of all polls conducted in February. If there was more than one, I averaged them. Utah was ambiguous but I gave it to Sanders. 30% shade = 1-10 point lead. 50% shade = 11-20 point lead. 90% shade = 20+ point lead.



I'm having a really hard time reconciling WV and TN/AR... is anyone else on that boat?
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Nathan Towne
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« Reply #462 on: February 26, 2016, 11:18:40 am »

I am going to have to get used to the colors that you are now using for the Republican Party primary as I was used to Trump-Blue and Cruz-Yellow, but that is alright.

I appreciate the time that Jonathan Swift and Wulfric are putting into this.
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« Reply #463 on: February 26, 2016, 03:12:01 pm »

I guess I'll post this here too.

This is a map of all polls conducted in February. If there was more than one, I averaged them. Utah was ambiguous but I gave it to Sanders. 30% shade = 1-10 point lead. 50% shade = 11-20 point lead. 90% shade = 20+ point lead.



I'm having a really hard time reconciling WV and TN/AR... is anyone else on that boat?

AR is obvious. As for TN, in 2008 the electorate was around 30% black. WV bodes well for Bernie in KY, not so much for TN.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #464 on: February 26, 2016, 05:28:29 pm »

FL: Clinton +25
IL: Clinton +29
VA: Clinton +17
  
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 57-32 Clinton
GA - 57-29 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 58-28 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 45-44 Sanders
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 53-31 Clinton
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 56-40 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 50-33 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #465 on: February 26, 2016, 05:33:30 pm »

Opinion Savvy polls Alabama; We Ask America polls Illinois.

Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 36-23 Trump-Rubio
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 34-27 Trump-Rubio
GA 41-18 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 38-21 Trump-Rubio
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 40-19-19 Trump-Kasich-Rubio
MI 41-19 Trump-Rubio
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 29-21 Trump-Rubio
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 22-16 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 38-23 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 41-27 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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« Reply #466 on: February 27, 2016, 02:25:17 am »

Adding the new Kansas Poll for the sole purpose of making this free of surveys that included Warren. I don't expect it to actually be accurate.
  
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 57-32 Clinton
GA - 57-29 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 33-23 Clinton
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 58-28 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 45-44 Sanders
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 53-31 Clinton
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 56-40 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 50-33 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders
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Swedge
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« Reply #467 on: February 27, 2016, 12:10:36 pm »

That's a lot of Clinton support
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« Reply #468 on: February 27, 2016, 12:57:26 pm »

Though I've not crunched the numbers fully, something still kind of perplexes me about the state of the dem race at the moment. If Clinton is getting 20-25+ margins all across the south, and mopping up in the northeast corridor, and doing well in Appalachia outside of WV, and winning Illinois by a good margin... then how come the national polling is typically between 0-15 margins for Clinton? Given the state by state polling in these diverse states, one would expect Clinton to be pushing 20 nationally if not more unless Sanders was getting crazy high support in a few small pockets beyond just upper new england. Is everyone in Montana voting Sanders or something?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #469 on: February 27, 2016, 06:02:45 pm »

Though I've not crunched the numbers fully, something still kind of perplexes me about the state of the dem race at the moment. If Clinton is getting 20-25+ margins all across the south, and mopping up in the northeast corridor, and doing well in Appalachia outside of WV, and winning Illinois by a good margin... then how come the national polling is typically between 0-15 margins for Clinton? Given the state by state polling in these diverse states, one would expect Clinton to be pushing 20 nationally if not more unless Sanders was getting crazy high support in a few small pockets beyond just upper new england. Is everyone in Montana voting Sanders or something?

I think there is a reason to suspect that the national polls are relying on slightly looser likely voter screens than state polls, only because the state polls are probably able to use voter rolls and tighter screens while national polls have to be RDD.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #470 on: February 27, 2016, 06:27:46 pm »

Landmark says Clinton +46 in GA
 
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 57-32 Clinton
GA - 68-22 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 33-23 Clinton
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 58-28 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 45-44 Sanders
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 53-31 Clinton
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 56-40 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 50-33 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders
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« Reply #471 on: February 27, 2016, 07:29:03 pm »

Suffolk polls Massachusetts.


Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 36-23 Trump-Rubio
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 34-27 Trump-Rubio
GA 41-18 Trump-Rubio
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 38-21 Trump-Rubio
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 43-20 Trump-Rubio
MI 41-19 Trump-Rubio
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 29-21 Trump-Rubio
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 22-16 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 38-23 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 41-27 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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« Reply #472 on: February 27, 2016, 10:11:33 pm »

Though I've not crunched the numbers fully, something still kind of perplexes me about the state of the dem race at the moment. If Clinton is getting 20-25+ margins all across the south, and mopping up in the northeast corridor, and doing well in Appalachia outside of WV, and winning Illinois by a good margin... then how come the national polling is typically between 0-15 margins for Clinton? Given the state by state polling in these diverse states, one would expect Clinton to be pushing 20 nationally if not more unless Sanders was getting crazy high support in a few small pockets beyond just upper new england. Is everyone in Montana voting Sanders or something?

I think some of your assumptions are flawed. The only reason you can't see Bernie's Appalachian strength except in West Virginia is because West Virginia is the only state that is entirely Appalachian. Sanders will do well in East Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, etc., it's just that the rest of those states will outvote the Appalachian regions since there are few Democrats left there. And although Clinton's leading the Northeast overall, I doubt the margin is really as large as you imply above.
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« Reply #473 on: February 28, 2016, 01:39:18 am »

Clinton wins 73-26 in SC, a crushing blow to Sanders.
 
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-43 Sanders
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 57-32 Clinton
GA - 68-22 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 33-23 Clinton
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 58-28 Clinton
MA - 46-46 Tie
MI - 53-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 45-44 Sanders
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 56-40 Clinton
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 78-13 Sanders
VA - 50-33 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #474 on: February 28, 2016, 12:55:32 pm »

YouGov polls Georgia, Texas, and Virginia; Marist polls Tennessee.


Donald Trump: 38 (3) States
Ted Cruz: 5 (1) States
Ben Carson: 3 States
Marco Rubio: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 36-23 Trump-Rubio
AK 28-24 Trump-Cruz
AR 27-23-23 Cruz-Rubio-Trump
AZ 35-23 Trump-Rubio
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 34-27 Trump-Rubio
GA 40-29 Trump-Cruz
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 38-21 Trump-Rubio
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 28-24 Cruz-Trump
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 43-20 Trump-Rubio
MI 41-19 Trump-Rubio
MN 23-21 Rubio-Cruz
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 46-24 Trump-Rubio
NH 35-16 Trump-Kasich
NJ 38-11 Trump-Rubio
NM 25-24 Cruz-Trump
NY 34-16-16 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
NC 28-19 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 31-26 Trump-Kasich
OK 29-21 Trump-Rubio
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 22-16 Trump-Rubio
RI 43-25 Trump-Rubio
SC 33-22 Trump-Rubio
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 40-22 Trump-Cruz
TX 42-31 Cruz-Trump
UT 24-22 Rubio-Cruz
VT 33-15 Trump-Rubio
VA 40-27 Trump-Rubio
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 40-20 Trump-Cruz
WI 30-20 Trump-Rubio
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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