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  2016 Primary Map Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 Primary Map Thread  (Read 155282 times)
Sorenroy
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Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« on: December 24, 2015, 12:00:38 pm »

I know that your maps show leads rather than support, so I figured that I'd add a quick support map for the democratic side. Note that all of these take only the most recent poll from that state, no sort of average.

Hillary Clinton:

Bernie Sanders:

Also, this leaves out the fact that some of these polls are months and months old, which allows for a lot to change over that amount of time. Here are some other maps that only show states/polls if they were conducted in the past two months.

Hillary Clinton:


Bernie Sanders:

Also a little note: when you take a map from the EV calculator and have the link, you can modify the colors to go below 30%. 20% Is even lighter and 10% is white (0% is grey).

Second note: I only used the polls on this site, so I may have overlooked another polling agency with more recent polls that is not included.
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2015, 04:24:04 pm »
« Edited: December 24, 2015, 04:27:17 pm by Sorenroy »

Even though these are not credible, they are fun to make and it shows what the internet thinks. These are the same support maps according to isidewith.com with the past month setting:

Hillary Clinton:

Bernie Sanders:
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2016, 01:57:47 pm »

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v681/RWonLC/averages_160106_zpsqxlawm7h.png

(Turned the image into a link so it wouldn't take up so much room.)

Weighted averages by age of poll for polling in the last 30 days

What equation did you use? In states with only one poll, you still have it with decimals, did you weigh the national into them at all?
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2016, 10:44:30 am »
« Edited: January 21, 2016, 10:57:29 am by Sorenroy »

All credit goes to عبدالله الحظرد for the format, but I'm inpatient and bored with nothing to do.

Michael Noble’s MBQF Consulting finds Trump ahead in Arizona.


Donald Trump: 41 States
Ben Carson: 5 States
Ted Cruz: 2 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

EXACT RESULTS:

AL 40-21 Trump-Cruz
AK 32-26 Carson-Trump
AR 33-20 Trump-Cruz
AZ 38-16 Trump-Cruz
CA 25-23 Cruz-Trump
CO 25-19 Carson-Rubio
CT 25-14 Trump-Rubio
DE 30-25 Trump-Carson
FL 48-16 Trump-Cruz
GA 33-23 Trump-Cruz
ID 30-19 Trump-Carson
IL 30-15 Trump-Cruz
IN 26-17-17 Trump-Cruz-Rubio
IA 34-28 Trump-Cruz
KS 25-18 Trump-Carson
KY 29-21 Paul-Bush
LA 23-19 Carson-Trump
ME 33-23 Trump-Carson
MD 32-15 Trump-Cruz
MA 40-17 Trump-Rubio
MI 33-18 Trump-Rubio
MN 26-19 Trump-Carson
MS 54-13 Trump-Bush
MO 36-24 Trump-Cruz
MT 22-19 Trump-Carson
NE 32-27 Carson-Trump
NV 33-20 Trump-Cruz
NH 27-20 Trump-Kasich
NJ 30-14 Trump-Christie
NM 31-28 Trump-Carson
NY 39-16 Trump-Carson
NC 38-16 Trump-Cruz
ND 32-29 Trump-Carson
OH 27-22 Trump-Carson
OK 32-28 Trump-Cruz
OR 31-30 Trump-Carson
PA 23-22 Trump-Carson
RI 33-16 Trump-Rubio
SC 32-18 Trump-Cruz
SD 31-29 Trump-Carson
TN 34-26 Trump-Cruz
TX 31-27 Trump-Cruz
UT 18-17 Cruz-Trump
VT 32-21 Trump-Rubio
VA 28-19 Trump-Cruz
WA 28-27 Trump-Carson
WV 37-11 Trump-Bush
WI 22-19 Carson-Trump
WY 22-18 Trump-Cruz
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2016, 03:28:19 am »

First poll of Alaska shows Clinton up a very pathetic 3 points

Only if you use the registered Democrat's only. I assume it is the better estimate though, as it is a closed caucus state.
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2016, 09:35:02 am »
« Edited: January 27, 2016, 09:37:10 am by Sorenroy »

I really would change the map to show a Alaska lead for Sanders. Even the site has it as a Sanders lead 48-34: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?fips=2

Weirdly, the website shows that -2% of people would vote for "Other" (This makes the number add up to 100%, but you can't have an anti vote to bring it down from 102%.
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2016, 09:41:04 am »

I'm taking this again because I've got the time, so why not? All credit for the format goes to resident wizard Wulfric.

Clinton lead up in South Carolina (NBC/WSJ), down in Pennsylvania (per Franklin & Marshall), still close in Iowa (NBC/WSJ). Sanders winning in New Hampshire (NBC/WSJ). (Bolding relevant states, it helps me see what has changed.)
 
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Green - Sanders lead

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 78-10 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 47-42 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-36 Clinton
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 62-26 Clinton
GA - 73-16 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 51-40 Clinton
IA - 48-45 Clinton
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 57-22-7 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
ME - 28-27 Sanders
MD - 40-27 Clinton
MA - 52-39 Clinton
MI - 57-25 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 47-43 Clinton
NH - 57-38 Sanders
NJ - 60-19 Clinton
NY - 45-24-23 Clinton/Biden/Sanders
NC - 53-28 Clinton
OH - 53-37 Clinton
OK - 51-41 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 46-29 Clinton
SC - 64-27 Clinton
TN - 50-38 Clinton
TX - 55-34 Clinton
UT - 50-40 Clinton
VT - 63-29 Sanders
VA - 54-39 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 47-42 Clinton
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2016, 04:30:48 pm »
« Edited: January 29, 2016, 04:32:20 pm by Sorenroy »

I can see that two other users on this thread (Realist and Wulfric) seem to both be endorsing the Kasich campaign which is quite nice to see. As you are probably aware the campaign is really struggling, which is really disappointing. Being that we are still polling around twelve percent in New Hampshire, I think that we are virtually on life support at this point. I don't see any viable way to be competitive in the state right now and if Kasich loses New Hampshire by fifteen to twenty points then, as far as reality is concerned, we are done.

I know you are new to the site, but I would suggest finding a different place to post this (you might want to make a new thread on the "2016 U.S. Presidential Election" board), rather than the thread about maps. It's kind of nice to have each discussion in its own place, rather than having to search through unrelated posts to find what your looking for.
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2016, 08:02:51 am »
« Edited: February 16, 2016, 09:08:41 am by Sorenroy »


The poll shows a 51-40 split in VA, not nearly that close. Also, Iowa should be 50-50 with rounding.

Edit:
I just realized you are using Overtime for this poll. Please switch it to the other Virginia poll since that one was released the same day.
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2016, 11:34:50 am »
« Edited: February 17, 2016, 01:18:58 pm by Sorenroy »

Again, all credit goes to Wulfric, just updating this for the CNN Nevada poll and the PPP North Carolina Poll. And halfway through this update, the super PPP release for so many states. I'll just bold the results, Wulfric can go back and unbold when he updates again.
  
Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states unless otherwise noted:

AL - 59-31 Clinton
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 57-32 Clinton
AZ-  47-19 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 49-36 Clinton
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL - 43-26 Clinton
GA - 60-26 Clinton
ID - 44-41 Clinton
IL - 51-40 Clinton
IA - 50-50 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 62-14-4-4 Clinton/Warren/Biden/Cuomo
KY - 56-12 Clinton
LA - 60-29 Clinton
ME - 56-41 Sanders
MD - 40-27 Clinton
MA - 49-42 Sanders
MI - 50-40 Clinton
MN - 48-45 Clinton
MS - 60-26 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NV - 48-47 Clinton
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NJ - 60-19 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 52-35 Clinton
OH - 51-46 Clinton
OK - 46-44 Clinton
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 55-28 Clinton
SC - 56-38 Clinton
TN - 58-32 Clinton
TX - 57-34 Clinton
UT - 50-40 Clinton
VT - 86-10 Sanders
VA - 56-34 Clinton
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 36-32 Clinton
WI - 45-43 Clinton
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2016, 05:25:38 pm »

CLINTON COLLAPSING IN MICHIGAN!!!!

I would revert it back to the other map. That poll was conducted over 1-31 to 3-3. Even if we only look at the end date, the other polls are newer.
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Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2016, 07:43:00 am »

Due to a busy schedule, I will be unable to continue contributing to this thread on a regular basis, at least for the next few weeks. If someone else would take over, your assistance would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

I think, rather than just one person taking over, it would be better if whomever saw the most recent poll went on here and made the edits. Otherwise, I can take over when I remember.
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