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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  2016 Primary Map Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 Primary Map Thread  (Read 148477 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: February 26, 2016, 09:13:34 am »

I guess I'll post this here too.

This is a map of all polls conducted in February. If there was more than one, I averaged them. Utah was ambiguous but I gave it to Sanders. 30% shade = 1-10 point lead. 50% shade = 11-20 point lead. 90% shade = 20+ point lead.



I'm having a really hard time reconciling WV and TN/AR... is anyone else on that boat?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2016, 06:02:45 pm »

Though I've not crunched the numbers fully, something still kind of perplexes me about the state of the dem race at the moment. If Clinton is getting 20-25+ margins all across the south, and mopping up in the northeast corridor, and doing well in Appalachia outside of WV, and winning Illinois by a good margin... then how come the national polling is typically between 0-15 margins for Clinton? Given the state by state polling in these diverse states, one would expect Clinton to be pushing 20 nationally if not more unless Sanders was getting crazy high support in a few small pockets beyond just upper new england. Is everyone in Montana voting Sanders or something?

I think there is a reason to suspect that the national polls are relying on slightly looser likely voter screens than state polls, only because the state polls are probably able to use voter rolls and tighter screens while national polls have to be RDD.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2016, 12:58:09 pm »

Wulfric, I think you missed the most recent Michigan poll which shows her up 26. I'm sure it was an honest mistake and you'll get right on fixing it. Wink

Mitchell is junk.

I'll go ahead and add the new MD poll


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  61-30 Clinton
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 57-26 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 53.5 - 44.5 Clinton
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 65-11 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 56-35 Clinton
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)

Monmouth? ARG? How do you determine bad polls?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2016, 01:08:36 pm »

Wulfric, I think you missed the most recent Michigan poll which shows her up 26. I'm sure it was an honest mistake and you'll get right on fixing it. Wink

Mitchell is junk.

I'll go ahead and add the new MD poll


Democratic Map:

Red 30% - Clinton leads by less than 10 points
Red 50% - Clinton leads by 10 to 20 points
Red 70% - Clinton leads by 21 to 30 points
Red 90% - Clinton leads by 31+ points

Blue 50% - Actual Clinton win

Green 50% - Sanders lead
Green 90% - Actual Sanders win

Yellow 50% - Tied

Gray - No Polls




EXACT RESULTS. Sanders & Clinton are top two in all states:

AL -  78-19 Clinton (actual result)
AK - 44-41 Clinton
AR - 66-30 Clinton (actual result)
AZ-  56-22 Clinton
CA - 46-35 Clinton
CO - 59-40 Sanders (actual result)
CT - 50-31 Clinton
FL -  61-30 Clinton
GA - 71-28 Clinton (actual result)
ID - 47-45 Sanders
IL - 57-28 Clinton
IA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
KS - 68-32 Sanders (actual result)
KY - 43-38 Clinton
LA - 71-23 Clinton (actual result)
ME - 64-36 Sanders (actual result)
MD - 57-26 Clinton
MA - 50-49 Clinton (actual result)
MI - 53.5 - 44.5 Clinton
MN - 62-38 Sanders (actual result)
MS - 65-11 Clinton
MO - 47-42 Clinton
MT - 55-35 Clinton
NE - 57-43 Sanders (actual result)
NV - 53-47 Clinton (actual result)
NH - 60-38 Sanders (actual result)
NM - 47-33 Clinton
NJ - 55-32 Clinton
NY - 55-34 Clinton
NC - 51-36 Clinton
OH - 56-35 Clinton
OK - 52-42 Sanders (actual result)
OR - 44-39 Clinton
PA - 48-27 Clinton
RI - 49-40 Clinton
SC - 73-26 Clinton (actual result)
TN - 66-32 Clinton (actual result)
TX - 65-33 Clinton (actual result)
UT - 51-44 Clinton
VT - 86-14 Sanders (actual result)
VA - 64-35 Clinton (actual result)
WA - 45-36 Clinton
WV - 57-29 Sanders
WI - 44-43 Sanders

-----

American Samoa - 68-26 Clinton (actual result)

Monmouth? ARG? How do you determine bad polls?

I added Monmouth originally, and would still be including it if it wasn't for the MSU Poll.

In any case, it's the day of the primary. It's probably getting colored blue soon enough. Icespear, enjoy.





The system works.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2016, 10:15:37 am »

According to the Washington Examiner, Robby Mook, Hillary Clintonís campaign manager said that Senator Bernie Sandersí surprise victory in Michigan earlier in the week after outspending Hillary in Michigan is a warning sign that it could happen again on Tuesday in Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois.

............................

According to the Centerís Larry Sabato Crystal Ball Clinton is predicted to win North Carolina with at least 65%, Florida with at least 64%, Illinois with 52%, and Sanders is predicted to win Ohio with 55% and Missouri with 53%.

https://pivotamerica.com/clintons-campaign-manager-warns-things-dont-look-good-clinton-ohio-missouri-illinois/

Internal Polls, maybe junk!



Those aren't internal polls, they're projections based on who's already voted. It's a simple model, and probably not very accurate.
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