North Korea declares War on South Korea
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 02:25:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  North Korea declares War on South Korea
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9]
Author Topic: North Korea declares War on South Korea  (Read 13771 times)
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #200 on: May 11, 2013, 12:17:50 AM »

Having Seattle, SF and LA nuked would obviously suck huge ass, but it would be substantially less devestating than all out war with SU/Russia would be.  The former would be more like a really really bad 9-11, it's going to hurt, bad, but it wouldn't even be the end of those cities, much less the end of us.  The latter would put the human race in the ropes. 

I know conventional wisdom says that 3 nukes on the west coast means everybody west of Denver that was lucky enough to survive the blasts would no doubt be mutants or dead from radiation poison.  The facts are very different from that.

Are you kidding? Only 2,500 people on 9/11. That's nothing. The population of L.A. alone is 3.8 million. That's not even counting the metro area, with a population of 12.5 million. So even if only people in the city proper died and everyone in the metro area survived (unlikely given the radioactive fallout), that would still be 1,500 times worse than 9/11. Now let's add the San Francisco population of 800,000 and the Seattle population of 600,000. We're assuming the North Koreans only have 3 nuclear ICBMs (they could easily have more) and the weapons are so weak that only the cities proper and destroyed, with no additional accounting for radioactive fallout.
The total casualty count is 3,800,000 + 800,000 + 600,000 = 5,200,000.
Now let's compare this with the great events of U.S. History

9/11 - Equivalent of 2,080 9/11's
The Iraq War - Equivalent of 1,468 Iraq War's
The Vietnam war - Equivalent of 110 Vietnam War's
World War II - Equivalent of 18 World War II's
Total American Wars - Equivalent of Six Times the total casualty count in all wars in U.S. history combined.

So basically, think of any episode in U.S., any historical event deemed to be a crisis or a serious matter (war being generally agreed to be the worst). Now take the most serious possible, out of all of those.

This is at least six times worse than all of them combined. It's actually more than that, because nuclear strikes also render vast amounts of territory to be uninhabitable, whereas wars would not. Also, nuclear strikes destroy the entire physical infrastructure of an area more comprehensively than wars do. The Eiffel Tower, St. Peter's Cathedral, and Big Ben are still standing even though battles were fought over these cities in World War II. However, in the case of a nuclear strike, every bit of Hollywood, for instance, would be wiped out.

Additionally, many U.S. casualties in wars were sustained by troops that went overseas to fight. While their deaths are tragic, they occurred on foreign soil and not U.S. soil. The mass death of millions of people on U.S. soil, particularly civilians, is not something the U.S. has seen since the civil war, and on the scale we are talking about, really never.

Basically every thread on this forum, is moot compared to this issue.

Now compare to threat with the Soviet Union circa 1982. The US population in the 1980 census was deemed at 200 million. Now let's say in the worst case scenario, the Soviet first strike is extremely effective and manages to take out every single American (highly unlikely, particularly since U.S. ballistic missile submarines were already deployed then 24/7 specifically designed to retaliate against such a strike). Sure, this is orders of magnitude worse than 5 million dying, by a magnitude of 40. However, it wouldn't be the end of North American civilization, let alone the end of the human race.

A magnitude of 40 is a lot less than a magnitude of 2,000 which separate the scenario I'm talking about from 9-11. So if anything, it's your analogy which is problematic, my comparison is actually a lot better than yours.
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #201 on: May 11, 2013, 12:23:51 AM »

Also, keep in mind that I've already conceded to the most ultra-conservative estimates, as defined by you. In reality, North Korea likely has a lot more than 3 warheads:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/10/north-korea-nuclear-weapons_n_3251870.html?utm_hp_ref=world&utm_hp_ref=world

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Note that this isn't my personal estimate, it's the one this experts has come up with.

Once North Korea develops the long-range missile re-entry capability of warhead delivery, there is no limit to how many rockets it could build. Let's take a mid-point between the estimate given above, and a minimum of zero, and suppose NK eventually builds 40 nuclear-tipped ICBMs. Now we're talking about 40 million, rather than 5 million. Either way, it's certainly comparable to a Soviet strike circa 1985.
Logged
dead0man
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #202 on: May 11, 2013, 12:37:45 AM »

You might find this page interesting.  Keep in mind, the estimated yield of Nork nukes is in the 6-40kt range and the closest the linked site has is a 140kt PRC nuke, but I think my point will be clear.



(if its not clear, my point is that nukes (especially sh**tty nukes from sh**t holes) aren't as powerful as you seem to think they are)
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #203 on: May 11, 2013, 02:24:45 AM »

lol
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #204 on: May 11, 2013, 08:33:37 AM »

All of this is based on the assumption anyway that the NoKoreans are able to launch missiles that won't be picked off by defense systems beforehand. Most NK missiles are lucky to even get off the ground, let alone travel halfway around the world to accurately deliver a nuke.
Logged
dead0man
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #205 on: May 11, 2013, 08:41:44 AM »

Indeed.
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #206 on: May 11, 2013, 07:18:23 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2013, 07:21:48 PM by Beet »

All of this is based on the assumption anyway that the NoKoreans are able to launch missiles that won't be picked off by defense systems beforehand. Most NK missiles are lucky to even get off the ground, let alone travel halfway around the world to accurately deliver a nuke.

When is the last time the U.S. has picked off a North Korean missile, or for that matter any foreign missile? Name one time.

And dead0man: That's a fine point, but let's keep in mind the North Korean payloads have been increasing with each successive test, 2006, 2009 and 2013. No one's saying this a threat we face today; it's a threat we face 5-10 years down the road.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/10/weve-underestimated-them-new-sense-of-urgency-about-north-koreas-nuclear-pursuits/
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #207 on: May 12, 2013, 03:00:34 AM »

My guess is that the US, as well as Japan and South Korea could potentially shoot down missiles but have refrained from doing so in the past in order to not ratchet up the tension.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,318
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #208 on: May 12, 2013, 03:53:39 PM »


When is the last time the U.S. has picked off a North Korean missile, or for that matter any foreign missile? Name one time.


2003 - Patriots bagged a number of SRBMs fired by Iraq.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #209 on: May 13, 2013, 08:17:26 AM »

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/China+imposes+trade+banking+sanctions+Korea/8374243/story.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Cory
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,708


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #210 on: May 13, 2013, 11:54:16 AM »

Also, keep in mind that I've already conceded to the most ultra-conservative estimates, as defined by you. In reality, North Korea likely has a lot more than 3 warheads

Yes, but can they miniaturize and shape these warheads to be fitted on missiles effectively?

Once North Korea develops the long-range missile re-entry capability of warhead delivery, there is no limit to how many rockets it could build. Let's take a mid-point between the estimate given above, and a minimum of zero, and suppose NK eventually builds 40 nuclear-tipped ICBMs. Now we're talking about 40 million, rather than 5 million. Either way, it's certainly comparable to a Soviet strike circa 1985.

You really think the USA or even China will allow North Korea to build up a seriously powerful ICBM force? Keep in mind these NK rockets are going to be of lower quality and probably few of them will actually be able to reach the West Coast. Also, even 40 nukes would not compare to a massive Soviet strike circa 1985.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 11 queries.