North Korea declares War on South Korea

[Middle-aged Europe]

While the North would lose, don't most experts anticipate that the North shelling Seoul alone would potentially make it the bloodiest war that the world has seen in decades?

Worse than the Second Congo War? Not likely.

Yes, but they're Africans.

Koreans manufacture cars and other stuff that we use.

[Bacon King]

The biggest clue for North Korea's intentions is the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They need that revenue far too badly to cut themselves off via saber-rattling. Since it was built it's remained open through every escalation.

[Beet]

BEIJING — A well-known editor of an influential Communist Party journal said Monday that he had been suspended after writing an article for a British newspaper saying that China should abandon its ally North Korea.

North Korea, he argued, did not view its relationship with China through the same lens of “friendship sealed in blood” that came from Chinese soldiers’ fighting and dying in the Korean War against the United States. “North Korea does not feel like this at all toward its neighbor,” he wrote.

And in a response to the Chinese policy of urging North Korea to overhaul its economy, Mr. Deng wrote: “Once the door of reform opened, the regime could be overthrown. Why should China maintain relations with a regime and a country that will face failure sooner or later?”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/world/asia/chinese-suspend-editor-who-questioned-north-korea-alliance.html?ref=asia

Of course, the reasoning seems backward here... there's no reason to think that economic reform would lead to the regime being overthrown, especially when the same arguments were made about China 30 years ago. But if economic reform doesn't occur, North Korea will certainly be a failed state, and in that case one wonders how much the top leadership in China would really consider abandoning North Korea.

[dead0man]

PRC mobilizing troops and jets near N.Korean border

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Dereich]

The biggest clue for North Korea's intentions is the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They need tha t revenue far too badly to cut themselves off via saber-rattling. Since it was built it's remained open through every escalation.

North Korea is now messing with Kaesong: http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This period of saber rattling seems like its gone on longer and gotten more heated then normal; I don't know what could possibly make the regime think this much brinksmanship is necessary.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The biggest clue for North Korea's intentions is the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They need tha t revenue far too badly to cut themselves off via saber-rattling. Since it was built it's remained open through every escalation.

North Korea is now messing with Kaesong: http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This period of saber rattling seems like its gone on longer and gotten more heated then normal; I don't know what could possibly make the regime think this much brinksmanship is necessary.

There's still the worst-case scenario that Kim Jong Un believes in his own propaganda.

[Mr. Morden]

The biggest clue for North Korea's intentions is the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They need tha t revenue far too badly to cut themselves off via saber-rattling. Since it was built it's remained open through every escalation.

North Korea is now messing with Kaesong: http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This period of saber rattling seems like its gone on longer and gotten more heated then normal; I don't know what could possibly make the regime think this much brinksmanship is necessary.

I'd assume that Kim Jong-un is trying to act like a tough guy to cement his position within the upper echelons of power in North Korea.  He's staring down the USA to prove to the generals that he's a serious person or something.

[dead0man]

Except this time if the Norks do an artillery strike, sink a ship, steal a ship, attempt an assassination,etc, they are freaking done.  Everybody on this side of the table is in agreement on that.  Dicking around with his sabre he may be doing, but if he even grips it a little too tight, he's getting a cruise missile down his throat.  You've heard of thin ice?  Well, it's April in Pyongyang too.

[Mr. Morden]

Except this time if the Norks do an artillery strike, sink a ship, steal a ship, attempt an assassination,etc, they are freaking done.  Everybody on this side of the table is in agreement on that.  Dicking around with his sabre he may be doing, but if he even grips it a little too tight, he's getting a cruise missile down his throat.  You've heard of thin ice?  Well, it's April in Pyongyang too.

Not disputing any of that.  Just saying that there has to be a motive, and this seems like the most likely one.

[Silent Hunter]

Harvest is middle of this month, correct? Once that's done, things might get really serious.

I'm seriously thinking this will end in a clash at least. Also, never underestimate the delusion of a dictator when going up against the US... Milosevic, the Taliban and Saddam all should have known that going up against the most powerful military force on Earth was going to end up with them in a cell, dead or both.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

London Man- I agree that this will end in military conflict, but I doubt a clash is all it comes to. A single shot fired will result in the destruction of the North Korean regime... the question is what else will be taken out with it? If Kim Jong Un is not taken out by coup- will he see his "blaze of glory" as wiping out Seoul and Tokyo?

[dead0man]

S.Korea to buy 60 F-35s for $10.8B

and

60 F-15SilentEagles for $2.4B


Good for everybody except the Norks (if they still exist by time of delivery) and the PRC.  I guess it's not good for the European partners making the Typhoon either.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

The man has to have a death wish. This isn't going to end well, Un must know that. Has he just come to be a nihlist and bring down as many as he can with him?

[Cory]

I'd assume that Kim Jong-un is trying to act like a tough guy to cement his position within the upper echelons of power in North Korea.  He's staring down the USA to prove to the generals that he's a serious person or something.

This. We must remember that a 28 (?) year old is vying to be the Supreme Leader of a nation with a culture build around seniority. He has to prove himself to the Old Guard. The Rocket test, the nuclear test, all of it I think is part of a forced crisis that Jong-Un will use to bolster his credibility with the hardliners, and give the people a crisis to rally around the new young leader.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Harvest is middle of this month, correct? Once that's done, things might get really serious.

I'm seriously thinking this will end in a clash at least. Also, never underestimate the delusion of a dictator when going up against the US... Milosevic, the Taliban and Saddam all should have known that going up against the most powerful military force on Earth was going to end up with them in a cell, dead or both.

Milosevic, the Taliban, and Saddam were uo against America whether they wanted to be or not...

[Beezer]

Another bureaucratic hurdle has been passed:

North Korea declares it has given approval for a nuclear attack on the United States

The North Korean army said it would launch "merciless" military strikes on the United States, involving the possible use of "cutting-edge" nuclear weapons.

In a statement published by the official KCNA news agency, the General Staff of the Korean People's Army said it was formally informing Washington that US threats would be "smashed by... cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means".

"The merciless operation of (our) revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified."

http://www.news.com.au/world-news/north-korea-gives-final-approval-for-nuclear-attack-on-united-states/story-fndir2ev-1226612136732#ixzz2PR0wPBt1

[Silent Hunter]

Harvest is middle of this month, correct? Once that's done, things might get really serious.

I'm seriously thinking this will end in a clash at least. Also, never underestimate the delusion of a dictator when going up against the US... Milosevic, the Taliban and Saddam all should have known that going up against the most powerful military force on Earth was going to end up with them in a cell, dead or both.

Milosevic, the Taliban, and Saddam were uo against America whether they wanted to be or not...

And they all could have avoided their fates.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Should be we worried!?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Should be we worried!?

Only if you live in South Korea or Japan.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Should be we worried!?

According to Wikipedia, North Korea is possibly in possession of one or two ICBMs capable of reaching at least Alaska or Hawaii, but has currently no nuclear warheads to arm those missiles with.

However, the North Koreans could have equipped up to three of their mid-range ballistic missiles (900-1,300 km range) with nuclear warheads.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Rocket_Forces_%28North_Korea%29#Active_Missiles

You have to take all of this with a grain of salt, because all information regarding NK's nuclear capabilities is based on speculation and rumours. Take it as a worst-case scenario.

[Mr. Morden]

Harvest is middle of this month, correct? Once that's done, things might get really serious.

I'm seriously thinking this will end in a clash at least. Also, never underestimate the delusion of a dictator when going up against the US... Milosevic, the Taliban and Saddam all should have known that going up against the most powerful military force on Earth was going to end up with them in a cell, dead or both.

Milosevic, the Taliban, and Saddam were uo against America whether they wanted to be or not...

And they all could have avoided their fates.

How much did Milosevic's fate actually have to do with the Kosovo conflict?

[You kip if you want to...]

Kim Jong-Un really must be as insane as we all think if even has the mildest assumption that this'll end well for him.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I know I sound paranoid here, but could this potentially lead to a draft?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I know I sound paranoid here, but could this potentially lead to a draft?

You do... and no.

[Blue3]

Kim Jong Un is only insane if he actually attacks the United States or South Korea or Japan.