ag
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« on: May 16, 2013, 12:38:03 PM » |
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3-way races in FPTP elections are iherently unstable. As soon as one of the candidates gets behind, he tends to hemorrage votes. Early polls wouldn't catch it: nobody is - yet - convinced their prefered candidate has no chance. Sometimes, this uncertainty leads to a three-way all through the election day. But this is very hard to sustain for 2 elections in a row - especially in the face of the incumbent that would lose in a 2-way race to any opponent. Let the campaign dynamics play out. LePage would have to be VERY lucky, for something like this to be the next election result.
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