Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 15, 2019, 11:43:16 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Socialist Mod Stands with ProudWhatsHisName)
  Iceland parliamentary election
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 8 Print
Author Topic: Iceland parliamentary election  (Read 23281 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 03, 2013, 09:15:44 pm »

Taking place April 27th.

A Gallup poll on April 1st shows:

Progressive Party (anti-EU liberals) 28.3%
Independence Party (formerly dominant conservatives) 22.4%
Social Democratic Alliance (incumbent centre-left) 15%
Bright Future (ideologically vague party with two incumbents, a former Social Democrat and a former Progressive, as well as links to the joke-y Best Party) 12.7%
Green-Left Movement (left-wing junior partner in the current coalition, came close to coming in second last time) 8.5%
Pirate Party 4.4%
Democracy Watch (breakaway from Dawn, see below) 3.1%
Right-Green Movement (low tax greens) 2.1
Dawn (Vague anti-establishment populists who did moderately well in the last election under the name Citizens' Movement) 1.5%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_parliamentary_election,_2013

Anti-EU sentiment seems to be the main thing helping the Progressives (who only recently switched to an anti-position).

I also suspect this is another case of the people in power being unfairly blamed for not magically fixing the economy.

I'm unsure exactly what the Progressive Party's current ideology is. They had previously been firmly on the center-right, acting as the junior partner to the Independence Party for more than a decade. Then again, they flipped on the EU, they may have flipped on more. Wikipedia says they got a party switcher from the Green-Left. As a social democrat, I'm not optimistic though.
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,992
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2013, 09:20:06 pm »

OMG, what happened to the SDA? They basically pulled this country out of the mess!

Also, why is EU membership even an issue while the country isn't in the EU?
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2013, 10:29:44 pm »

The Social Democrats advocacy of EU membership is sort of a 90s holdover policy.

When they got into power, they started acting on it, almost out of habit since it had been part of their platform for so long.

Anyway, it's since because clear that that was NOT why they were elected and the Social Democrats have de-emphasized it. Still, a lot of people were apparently angry that they wasted any time at all on it.
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,992
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2013, 10:37:19 pm »

Yeah, that's stupid. Anyone who wants to seek EU admission now would be a fool politically.
Logged
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,494
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2013, 11:24:38 pm »

It's pretty sad, regardless, that the SDA is polling so poorly after basically completely saving Iceland from the awful mess they were in, without resorting to any neoliberal nonsense along the way. Unpopularity of the EU or not, Iceland has been the most dramatic turnaround and it seems preposterous to me that they wouldn't get any credit for it. Good Lord.
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,992
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2013, 12:15:34 am »

It's pretty sad, regardless, that the SDA is polling so poorly after basically completely saving Iceland from the awful mess they were in, without resorting to any neoliberal nonsense along the way. Unpopularity of the EU or not, Iceland has been the most dramatic turnaround and it seems preposterous to me that they wouldn't get any credit for it. Good Lord.

Indeed. It's a rare example of the Left staying true to its value and, in the process, being extremely successful. This is truly depressing.
Logged
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,202
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2013, 12:18:00 am »

I also suspect this is another case of the people in power being unfairly blamed for not magically fixing the economy.
Basically this + Iceland is a centre-right country without any tradition for SD governments. Last time was an exception and now that the country is stabilished many Icelandic voters are going back to "normal", apart from the ones voting on protest parties.
I had imagined more young voters would stick with the left, but they are probably the ones going to the populists. 
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,992
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2013, 12:21:47 am »

I also suspect this is another case of the people in power being unfairly blamed for not magically fixing the economy.
Basically this + Iceland is a centre-right country without any tradition for SD governments. Last time was an exception and now that the country is stabilished many Icelandic voters are going back to "normal", apart from the ones voting on protest parties.

By "normal", you mean the policies that led to the financial debacle, I guess?
Logged
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,202
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2013, 12:50:12 am »
« Edited: April 04, 2013, 12:53:51 am by politicus »

I also suspect this is another case of the people in power being unfairly blamed for not magically fixing the economy.
Basically this + Iceland is a centre-right country without any tradition for SD governments. Last time was an exception and now that the country is stabilished many Icelandic voters are going back to "normal", apart from the ones voting on protest parties.

By "normal", you mean the policies that led to the financial debacle, I guess?
Yeah, you could say that. Politics is rarely fair.

Lawyer Bjarni Benediktson took over the Independence Parti chairmanship in 2009 and he managed to distance himself from the past and the party was polling at 36% in 2012. The massive shift from 2012 to now is from the Independence Party to the Progress Party (the old farmers party) and thats likely the EU question.

EDIT: By "normal" I was mostly refering to a general feeling of being more comfortable with the right. Rural and small town Iceland (which is basically everywhere outside Reykjavik) is a pretty conservative place.




Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,992
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2013, 01:21:36 am »

Yeah, I get your point. It's just that it makes me sick.
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2013, 01:38:44 am »

politicus, what do you know about the Progressives current political orientation?
Logged
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,202
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2013, 01:48:35 am »
« Edited: April 04, 2013, 01:52:20 am by politicus »

Regarding the Progress Party and EU they were against until January 2009 when they changed to being supportive, but with strong caveats, especially regarding agriculture and fishing. Since that proved unsuccesful (to say the least..) they recently switched back to being quite strongly opposed to EU membership again and apparantly that has made them more attractive to people otherwise voting for the euro-sceptic Independence Party.

One other thing about Icelandic politics is that 10% of the adult population are members of the Independence Party, so its very much a peoples party. Among fishermen, urban middle class, and in a lot of urban working class families as well, this is simply the natural party of government. The old national party, that led them to independence etc. Its a lot stronger than any right wing party in mainland Scandinavia, so it isnt that strange that they have bounced back.


Logged
Swedish Austerity Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,249
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2013, 03:08:08 am »

I'm also guessing that it hasn't helped the SDP to push for unpopular statist policies such as out-lawing porn either. Roll Eyes
Logged
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,494
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2013, 03:22:16 am »
« Edited: April 04, 2013, 03:23:49 am by President Marokai »

I'm also guessing that it hasn't helped the SDP to push for unpopular statist policies such as out-lawing porn either. Roll Eyes

Rescuing the economy from near complete collapse within a few years and practically no austerity is a bit more important and meaningful in terms of impact than restricting porn.
Logged
Swedish Austerity Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,249
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2013, 03:29:06 am »

I'm also guessing that it hasn't helped the SDP to push for unpopular statist policies such as out-lawing porn either. Roll Eyes

Rescuing the economy from near complete collapse within a few years and practically no austerity is a bit more important and meaningful in terms of impact than restricting porn.

Yes exactly. Which is probably why people are even more annoyed about it. Enforceing a statist social policy was not something the voters wanted the government to do. 
Logged
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,202
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2013, 05:53:54 am »

Its 21,7% for various populists. Thats a pretty high number. My guess is that this group is primarily young voters, while older right wingers voting for the left in 2009 are returning to the parties they used to vote for.

It would be interesting to see some actual poling that included distribution on age.



Logged
Swedish Austerity Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,249
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2013, 06:04:02 am »

It's also worth noting that 15% is an increase from the last numbers I saw for the SDP, so I'm sure that as the month pogress they will gain a bit, as most goverment parties do right before an election.
Logged
Watermelon sin Jamón
Zanas46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,877
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2013, 08:11:02 am »
« Edited: April 04, 2013, 08:14:19 am by Nyarlathotep »

Has the Green-Left participation in the government (Steingrimur and Katrin if I recall well ?) been any good, bad, neutral, audible, inaudible ? I guess they are also back to what they cuold count on before the "Revolution" back in 2009.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 62,466
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 04, 2013, 08:49:06 am »

It's obviously a bit disappointing as they've done an objectively good job in government, but no Icelandic government is likely to be anything other than comically unpopular for the next few decades. They'll probably bounce back and win the next election or something.
Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,623
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 04, 2013, 09:34:38 am »

Has the Green-Left participation in the government (Steingrimur and Katrin if I recall well ?) been any good, bad, neutral, audible, inaudible ? I guess they are also back to what they cuold count on before the "Revolution" back in 2009.

Left-Green got >20% in '09 and are polling around 8% now, so negative obviously.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,876
Cuba


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 04, 2013, 09:57:17 am »

Has the Green-Left participation in the government (Steingrimur and Katrin if I recall well ?) been any good, bad, neutral, audible, inaudible ? I guess they are also back to what they cuold count on before the "Revolution" back in 2009.

Left-Green got >20% in '09 and are polling around 8% now, so negative obviously.

Polling badly doesn't necessarily mean their performance in government has been bad, it's all subjective.
Logged
DC Al Fine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,623
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 04, 2013, 10:03:46 am »

Has the Green-Left participation in the government (Steingrimur and Katrin if I recall well ?) been any good, bad, neutral, audible, inaudible ? I guess they are also back to what they cuold count on before the "Revolution" back in 2009.

Left-Green got >20% in '09 and are polling around 8% now, so negative obviously.

Polling badly doesn't necessarily mean their performance in government has been bad, it's all subjective.

Whoops, completely misread the question. I thought he was asking if their participation in government was positive for them. Tongue
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,360
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2013, 07:49:17 pm »

I see that I had Iceland a bit idealized. It's a "normal" country after all. If "normalization" leads to another disaster, call the lefties. Even if they are awful persons with some state control views, willing to ban porn.

Don't take me too seriously. Sometimes I don't understand politics.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,282
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2013, 05:24:01 am »

Don't take me too seriously. Sometimes I don't understand politics.
I wouldn't dream of taking seriously anyone who always does. It's a clear mark of a derelict character.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,360
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2013, 08:03:46 am »

Don't take me too seriously. Sometimes I don't understand politics.
I wouldn't dream of taking seriously anyone who always does. It's a clear mark of a derelict character.

I don't take things always seriously, though maybe I'm derelict.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 8 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC