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nick
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« on: February 18, 2005, 03:53:15 pm »
« edited: February 18, 2005, 03:55:51 pm by nickshepDEM »

Why else would he be in South Carolina?

When Governor Mitt Romney delivers a major speech to South Carolina Republicans Monday, many party activists there will listen with a key question in mind: Can a Massachusetts governor, with nuanced positions on gay rights and abortion, appeal to conservative Southern voters?
 
The speech, which some view as Romney's first step toward a bid for the White House, is expected to draw hundreds of GOP members to Spartanburg, including most of the state's Republican elite. South Carolina holds the first major Southern presidential primary.

Romney supporters have spent months quietly easing the way for his introduction to the key state, donating lavishly to GOP candidates and county committees. South Carolina political observers suggest he will arrive to a warm and open-minded audience.

''It stands to reason that folks will probably ask themselves, 'OK, here's a governor from Massachusetts, he could potentially be a presidential candidate, so let's size him up,' " said Luke Byars, executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, who will attend Romney's speech. ''If you ask me point blank if a candidate is for civil unions and is lukewarm on abortion, I would tell you it's hard and would take a heck of a campaign and a tremendous candidate to overcome those obstacles. Because those are obstacles."

Still, some observers say Romney's devout Mormon faith and experience in the governor's office, at the Salt Lake City Olympics, and in corporate boardrooms will play well among South Carolina's Republican voters.

''He's conservative; he's articulate; he's nice looking," said Roberta Combs, president of the Christian Coalition of America and a native South Carolinian who believes Romney's potential as a candidate is immense. ''I think it's a little early to tell. A lot can happen between now and the primary, but I think it's very smart of him to come to South Carolina. It's so important to the presidential election."

Rick Beltram -- chairman of the Spartanburg County Republican Party, which is hosting the President's Day event -- said Romney's position of leadership in a liberal state could force him to work harder than some other national Republicans to establish his conservative credentials.

In addition, Romney's recent announcement in The New York Times that he would oppose human embryonic stem-cell research that involves therapeutic cloning was noticed among South Carolina Republicans, and some say it will bolster his image among abortion opponents.

''When I first announced that Romney was going to be our speaker, some people did come up to me and said they were a little troubled because they feel he's prochoice," Beltram said. ''This stem-cell research article that came out in the New York Times, from the South Carolina perspective, was very good, and the timing only a few days before coming to South Carolina was very good."

(part 2 cont'd here:  http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2005/02/18/activists_focusing_on_romney_in_sc?pg=2 )
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2005, 04:58:07 pm »

what i wouldnt give to see this little bastard defeated next year.
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Rob
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2005, 07:56:39 pm »
« Edited: February 19, 2005, 02:53:16 am by Bob »

If he keeps shifting to the right to appeal to the conservative GOP primary voters, he will be defeated in Massachusetts.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2005, 12:13:56 am »

I wonder if I could get into his speech. It's going to be 15 minutes from where I go to school.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2005, 04:21:21 am »

If he keeps shifting to the right to appeal to the conservative GOP primary voters, he will be defeated in Massachusetts.

The Barnes/Benson of 2006?
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dazzleman
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2005, 07:50:42 am »

An effective northeastern Republican, who is conservative enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Democrats to beat.

Pataki at this point is a total dud.  He's a RINO who is only marginally better than the Democrats, and that's not saying much.  Giuliani will be a hard sell, given that he has been married 3x, publicly cheated on his wife, and is socially liberal beyond the accepted norms for his party.  Plus, he has not held a public office higher than mayor.

If Romney is not too loudly pro-abortion, maybe he could win the nomination.  He is against gay marriage, which will please Republican voters.  Somebody like Romney could be  a good way to expand the Republican base and break the red state-blue state phenomenon that we have seen in the last 2 elections.

It would be interesting to see Romney, or somebody like him, run against a southern Democrat.  That would shake things up a bit.
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Akno21
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2005, 08:05:08 am »

Romney doesn't seem all that moderate however, and in the end people will look more at the "R" next to his name than the "MA". Against Bredesen, he'd probably lose the election since Bredesen would be a much better candidate than Kerry was, while Romney wouldn't be as good as Bush. Bredeson could carry Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, while possibly dropping New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to Romney. Depends on whether the liberals accept Bredesen.
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nick
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2005, 12:30:06 pm »

I really dont see what Romney brings to a presidential ticket.  He will not deliver Mass., only like 30% of Mass. residents want to see him run for president.  I was talking to a guy on some blog and he claims Romney wouldnt be expected to deliver traditional Northeastern states like Mass.  However, he claims Romney's governing principles would catch on well with in states like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penssylvania.  I dont see that happening, but you never know I guess. 
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Erc
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2005, 01:42:32 pm »

Personally, I like the idea of a Northern Republican in '08...we don't actually need to run a southerner this time around.

But, other than Romney, who is there?

Pataki's a joke...
Rudy won't make the cut...
Tommy Thompson will either be two years into a Senate term or out of politics.
And nobody's heard of Tim Pawlenty.


I don't think we should operate under the assumption that Bredesen's going to get the nomination....

Because A) he won't get it
and B) if he does, he wins (heck, I'm seriously considering voting for him if he gets the nomination) Nothing much interesting there.

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AuH2O
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2005, 03:05:46 pm »

No one's heard of Bredesen either.

Pawlenty though is the best "Northern option."
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dazzleman
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2005, 11:05:19 am »

Personally, I like the idea of a Northern Republican in '08...we don't actually need to run a southerner this time around.

But, other than Romney, who is there?

Pataki's a joke...
Rudy won't make the cut...
Tommy Thompson will either be two years into a Senate term or out of politics.
And nobody's heard of Tim Pawlenty.


I don't think we should operate under the assumption that Bredesen's going to get the nomination....

Because A) he won't get it
and B) if he does, he wins (heck, I'm seriously considering voting for him if he gets the nomination) Nothing much interesting there.


I agree with your assessments.
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2005, 11:15:59 am »

If Pawlenty or many other Republicans are thinking of running, they must also consider that 2012 would probably be a safer bet if Bush does well.
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Snowe08
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2005, 01:25:48 pm »

An effective northeastern Republican, who is conservative enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Democrats to beat.
I concur. Smiley
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Akno21
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2005, 02:21:54 pm »

An effective northeastern Republican, who is conservative enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Democrats to beat.


An effective southeastern Democrat, who is liberal enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Republicans to beat.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2005, 02:23:26 pm »

An effective northeastern Republican, who is conservative enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Democrats to beat.


An effective southeastern Democrat, who is liberal enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Republicans to beat.

Very true.  Look at Clinton.  Now put a northeastern Republican against a southeastern Democrat, and that would really mix up the current red state-blue state alignment, which would probably be a positive thing.
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2005, 02:23:50 pm »

Romney should be more concerned about 2006 than 2008 (as should Pawlenty too for that matter)
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dazzleman
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2005, 02:38:52 pm »

Romney should be more concerned about 2006 than 2008 (as should Pawlenty too for that matter)

You may be right.  I have no idea what his re-election prospects are in Massachusetts.
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nick
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2005, 03:05:09 pm »

Romney should be more concerned about 2006 than 2008 (as should Pawlenty too for that matter)

You may be right.  I have no idea what his re-election prospects are in Massachusetts.

Agaisnt Riley he is already down in the polls by about 4%, but I dont know much about this Riley person so I cant really say to much.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2005, 03:12:14 pm »

Romney should be more concerned about 2006 than 2008 (as should Pawlenty too for that matter)

You may be right.  I have no idea what his re-election prospects are in Massachusetts.

Agaisnt Riley he is already down in the polls by about 4%, but I dont know much about this Riley person so I cant really say to much.

He's the state Attorney General and seems pretty popular. I think he's probably the biggest threat to Romney.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2005, 03:31:18 pm »
« Edited: February 20, 2005, 03:32:52 pm by nickshepDEM »

An effective northeastern Republican, who is conservative enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Democrats to beat.


An effective southeastern Democrat, who is liberal enough to get the nomination, could be very difficult for the Republicans to beat.

Very true.  Look at Clinton.  Now put a northeastern Republican against a southeastern Democrat, and that would really mix up the current red state-blue state alignment, which would probably be a positive thing.

Governor Brad Henry vs Governor Mitt Romney???
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« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2005, 03:54:54 pm »

Henry would still win the northeast easily. Romney is governor now largely by fluke, he is not moderate enough to win any other NE states and I doubt anyone is deluded enough to believe he could win Massachusetts.

And this is all moot only if Romney doesn't lose in 2006, and that's a very big if.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2005, 03:57:04 pm »

Pawlenty will easily be reelected. Romney should win but not in a landslide.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2005, 03:59:28 pm »
« Edited: February 20, 2005, 04:03:08 pm by nickshepDEM »

Pawlenty will easily be reelected. Romney should win but not in a landslide.

What are your thoughts on Ehrlich over here in Maryland in '06?
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AuH2O
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« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2005, 04:04:51 pm »

If I had to bet, I would bet on Ehrlich, who I think tends to be underestimated. I'd say 65-70% chance of reelection, not great for an incumbent.

I haven't followed all these controversies too closely, but it seems like they mauled O'Malley as much as Ehrlich; people might claim to be upset over unethical tactics but they still eat up the information. Overall I think the Democrats are not in great shape to knock him off.
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nick
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« Reply #24 on: February 20, 2005, 04:15:33 pm »
« Edited: February 20, 2005, 04:22:31 pm by nickshepDEM »

I agree with your assesment for the most part.  Bob Ehrlich is definitley one of the most underestimated polticians in the country.  He may be a joke as a governor, but he is a master politician and he runs great campaigns. Still, Id say his chances are closer to 50-55% for re-election.  Thats not that bad considering how strong the Democratic party is in Maryland.  I think if we run O'Malley, Ehrlich will probably win by around 3-5%, but if we run a more moderate Democrat with alot less bagage like, Doug Duncan, we will win by around 3-5%.  A Duncan/Mfume ticket would be near impossible for Ehrlich to beat.  One things for sure, I will be supporting Duncan in the primary.
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