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Author Topic: NJ Gov.: The fix is in for Chris Christie  (Read 1906 times)
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« on: April 10, 2013, 07:32:41 pm »
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Okay, folks. For those of you not familiar with New Jersey politics, things have always been somewhat congenial between the state GOP and state Democratic party. That's not because they both believe the same things on the same issues. No, it's generally because New Jersey politics revolves around the personal and corporate enrichment of those who participate. Republicans and Democrats can work together if they're both enjoying the spoils.

And for New Jersey Democrats, it appears they're quite content with the way Christie has been governing the state. Christie has done some good things for some urban towns, and the folks who run those towns are paying Christie back. In New Jersey politics, that's huge -- urban voters show up to vote because of powerful machines that spike turnout. Buono can't win because her own machine is working against her.

How bad is it for Buono? Take a look at this from PolitickerNJ, which suggests Essex County Exec Joe DiVincenzo, an incredibly popular figure in his Democratic circle, will flat out endorse Christie.

http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/two-schools-thought-essex

Mayor Booker isn't going to be activating his Newark machine for Buono. Elizabeth Mayor Bollwage says he won't be getting involved in the Buono campaign either:

http://www.politickernj.com/node/64493

And it's just as bad in Democrats' other urban stronghold, Hudson County. Christie has always had a solid relationship with Union City Mayor Stack, who called Christie the greatest governor in the state's history. Harrison Mayor Ray McDonough has flat out endorsed. We'll know what'll happen in Jersey City after the spring mayoral election is over.

As for the biggest Democratic power brokers in the state -- the ones who control donations? Buono isn't getting anything from them but the bare minimum. The amount she's raised so far wouldn't even qualify as enough to win a competitive State Senate race, and it's pretty clear she'll be leaving a lot of matching funds on the table. She's going to struggle getting her message out to voters on virtually every level.

For Barbara Buono, the fix is in. Her own party simply won't allow her to compete, little less win. November will be a bloodbath.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2013, 07:34:22 pm by Former Moderate »Logged

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I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
Benj
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2013, 07:43:49 pm »
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It's what happened in 2009, too. Corzine was the incumbent, so he could pull some strings, but the out-of-staters who whined about Corzine being a machine politician were too hilariously wrong for words. Christie was and has always been the machine candidate of choice; Corzine was, by New Jersey standards, an outsider (shown most by his choice of LG candidate, maverick and notorious enemy of Joe Ferriero, the disgraced former Bergen County Democratic boss, State Senator Loretta Weinberg).

Not that Corzine was a great governor. I didn't even vote for him in 2009 (voted for Daggett). But the machines put Christie in power, and the machines will keep him there.

Speaking of the Jersey City mayoral election, I may try to write something up about it soon. It's quite interesting, and the result is, I think, very difficult to predict.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2013, 07:50:06 pm by Benj »Logged
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2013, 10:09:27 pm »
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This is similar to 2009, sure -- insiders abandoned Corzine pretty early. But at least Corzine had money.

I'd say this year is much more similar to 1985 than 2009.
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Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2013, 10:17:50 pm »
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I had presumed that Buono was in on it too.  Don't most sacrificial lambs know that that's what they are?
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2013, 11:25:54 pm »
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I had presumed that Buono was in on it too.  Don't most sacrificial lambs know that that's what they are?

No doubt at all. After getting elbowed out as NJ Senate Majority Leader, I imagine she's just building name recognition to run for something bigger (maybe Pallone's seat if he decides to run for Lautenberg's seat?)
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2013, 12:27:21 pm »
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I had presumed that Buono was in on it too.  Don't most sacrificial lambs know that that's what they are?

No doubt at all. After getting elbowed out as NJ Senate Majority Leader, I imagine she's just building name recognition to run for something bigger (maybe Pallone's seat if he decides to run for Lautenberg's seat?)

No way Pallone goes through with running against Booker. He's very politically timid. He turned down replacing Torricelli on the ballot in 2002 (leading state Democratic leaders to seek out Lautenberg) and again declined to run for Governor in 2005 and Senate in 2006 after initially expressing strong interest.

As for Buono's motives, hard to tell. I'm sure she knows she's a sacrificial lamb, though. She may view it as a stand on principle anyway.
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2013, 01:01:51 pm »
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I had a very strange dream last night about New Jersey politics.

Governor Christie resigns after being caught in a horrible scandal involving corruption, and faces a probable 30-year prison sentence.  A woman is sworn in as the new Governor or New Jersey.  (I just found out a few minutes ago that the the state's lt. governor is in fact a woman; I did not know that before I went to bed.)  Suddenly, one of New Jersey's seats in the US Senate is vacant (but I do not recall which one, or whether it was due to death, resignation from scandal, or something else).  The female governor must appoint a replacement, but she soon becomes fed up with all typical politicians; she is sick of everyone in politics lying, cheating, and misbehaving in other ways.  To make her point, she appoints Rush Limbaugh to the US Senate.  Then I woke up.           
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greenforest32
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2013, 03:27:08 pm »
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What's the likelihood the state legislature (or one chamber) flips to divided or Republican control?

And if that's not likely, what about the chances of a 'coalition' agreement springing up like in the NY-state senate or the WA-state senate? Wasn't the NJ redistricting similar to the WA redistricting?
« Last Edit: April 11, 2013, 03:32:34 pm by greenforest32 »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2013, 03:50:21 pm »
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What's the likelihood the state legislature (or one chamber) flips to divided or Republican control?

And if that's not likely, what about the chances of a 'coalition' agreement springing up like in the NY-state senate or the WA-state senate? Wasn't the NJ redistricting similar to the WA redistricting?

Assembly? 0%

Senate? 0.01% The only remotely plausible (and not really) pickups are 2, 14, 38. Next on the list would be 18.



The NJ redistricting is a Democratic gerrymander. Corzine won 19 districts in 2009.
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« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2013, 03:56:16 pm »
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Actually, I heard the Senate is a possibility. Not a strong possibility but things are apparently breaking the GOP's way in the swing seats. Sweeney supposedly might even go down. Wouldn't that be something?
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« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2013, 05:21:36 pm »
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Actually, I heard the Senate is a possibility. Not a strong possibility but things are apparently breaking the GOP's way in the swing seats. Sweeney supposedly might even go down. Wouldn't that be something?

3 and 27 might be a possibility in an open seat situation. Even looking at the initial set of 4 districts, the issue is that 14 is full of government unions, and 18 is Buono's district. The east Brunswick mayor (conservative part of that district) is running there.

There were some disappointing results in 2 and 38 back in 2011.


The incumbents are all in the wrong places for the GOP.
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« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2013, 06:08:29 pm »
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What's the likelihood the state legislature (or one chamber) flips to divided or Republican control?

And if that's not likely, what about the chances of a 'coalition' agreement springing up like in the NY-state senate or the WA-state senate? Wasn't the NJ redistricting similar to the WA redistricting?

You have to remember that Christie is popular not because he is a Republican, but because he is stands up to national Republicans.  The Democratic voters that vote for him are not going to vote Republican down allot.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2013, 06:11:00 pm »
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Actually, I heard the Senate is a possibility. Not a strong possibility but things are apparently breaking the GOP's way in the swing seats. Sweeney supposedly might even go down. Wouldn't that be something?

The only real swing seat held by a Dem is the 1st.  People seem to think that the 2nd should be Republican, but even Corzine tied there in 2009 even as he was getting blown out statewide and had most dem bosses sitting on their hands.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2013, 06:23:27 pm »
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Actually, I heard the Senate is a possibility. Not a strong possibility but things are apparently breaking the GOP's way in the swing seats. Sweeney supposedly might even go down. Wouldn't that be something?

The only real swing seat held by a Dem is the 1st.  People seem to think that the 2nd should be Republican, but even Corzine tied there in 2009 even as he was getting blown out statewide and had most dem bosses sitting on their hands.

That's not really accurate. The Assembly districts in 2 are both Republican held.
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2013, 09:37:59 am »
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What's the likelihood the state legislature (or one chamber) flips to divided or Republican control?

And if that's not likely, what about the chances of a 'coalition' agreement springing up like in the NY-state senate or the WA-state senate? Wasn't the NJ redistricting similar to the WA redistricting?

Zero chance of a coalition. Anyway, NJ redistricting went like WA (commission adopts GOP plan wholesale) at the congressional level, but for the state legislature they adopted a Democratic plan wholesale, basically as part of a backroom deal. I think in WA all of the chambers were effectively gerrymandered by the GOP?
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greenforest32
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2013, 04:48:22 pm »
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What's the likelihood the state legislature (or one chamber) flips to divided or Republican control?

And if that's not likely, what about the chances of a 'coalition' agreement springing up like in the NY-state senate or the WA-state senate? Wasn't the NJ redistricting similar to the WA redistricting?

Zero chance of a coalition. Anyway, NJ redistricting went like WA (commission adopts GOP plan wholesale) at the congressional level, but for the state legislature they adopted a Democratic plan wholesale, basically as part of a backroom deal. I think in WA all of the chambers were effectively gerrymandered by the GOP?

The WA redistricting commission adopting GOP plans for the House and the state legislature was what I remember reading in the WA redistricting/mega threads. I didn't know NJ had a split deal like that.
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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2013, 09:50:41 pm »
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Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.
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I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
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« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2013, 09:34:11 am »
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I had presumed that Buono was in on it too.  Don't most sacrificial lambs know that that's what they are?

No doubt at all. After getting elbowed out as NJ Senate Majority Leader, I imagine she's just building name recognition to run for something bigger (maybe Pallone's seat if he decides to run for Lautenberg's seat?)


It won't be that. Someone else closer to the establishment will get the Middlesex County party line. Wonder if Wisniewski wants it.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2013, 09:37:45 am »
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Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.

And again, Christie's landslide win will be due to the fact that a large amount of Democratic base is voting for him.  Does anybody really think these voters will vote a straight Republican ticket?
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« Reply #19 on: April 14, 2013, 10:05:08 am »
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This thread reminded me that Jon Corzine was a governor. That beard always screamed legislator. His fate was sealed.
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« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2013, 10:18:48 am »
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Btw, is Lautenberg still "missing"?
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« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2013, 10:26:08 am »

The east Brunswick mayor (conservative part of that district) is running there.

If East Brunswick is considered the conservative part of the district, it's going to take some massive personality issues/advantages for the Republican to win. EB is heavily Jewish and Asian.
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« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2013, 05:25:02 pm »
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Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.

And again, Christie's landslide win will be due to the fact that a large amount of Democratic base is voting for him.  Does anybody really think these voters will vote a straight Republican ticket?

It's not so much the Democrats you need to worry about -- Christie won't be winning assembly seats in Hudson County like Tom Kean did in 1985. It's the Republicans and independents that you need to worry about. A lot of GOPers vote Democratic in Districts 1 and 2. A lot of independents vote Democratic in 4, 7, 14, and 18. And recent polls say voters are split exactly down the middle on whether they want Democrats in charge of the NJ legislature of if they want Republicans.

Christie/Balles, Christie/Inverso, Christie/Allen, and Christie/Stahl are some pretty solid tickets, all considered.
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I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
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« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2013, 06:26:48 pm »
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Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.

And again, Christie's landslide win will be due to the fact that a large amount of Democratic base is voting for him.  Does anybody really think these voters will vote a straight Republican ticket?

It's not so much the Democrats you need to worry about -- Christie won't be winning assembly seats in Hudson County like Tom Kean did in 1985. It's the Republicans and independents that you need to worry about. A lot of GOPers vote Democratic in Districts 1 and 2. A lot of independents vote Democratic in 4, 7, 14, and 18. And recent polls say voters are split exactly down the middle on whether they want Democrats in charge of the NJ legislature of if they want Republicans.

Christie/Balles, Christie/Inverso, Christie/Allen, and Christie/Stahl are some pretty solid tickets, all considered.


The second district has a huge Democratic registration advantage and has a good Dem lean to it contrary to what others think here.  Obama won it by about 20 points and even Corzine tied Christie here in 2009. 

Remember that Greenstein solidly picked up the 14th for Democratic in 2010, which was the worst year for Democrats since the 1920's.  Independents were voting two to one Republican. 

And the fourth?  Even Corzine solidly won that district in 2009 and he was winning vitually no independents. 

The 18th is Buono's seat.  That seat isnt going anywhere, especially with her on the ticket. 

Really, the only seat I would really worry about Democrats losing is 1st, which is the only legitimate swing district they hold. 
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« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2013, 07:15:07 pm »
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First off, trying to view the 2013 New Jersey election through the lens of a national election is a mistake. Historically, New Jersey Republicans have been pretty well insulated from national trends (except maybe 1995) and do well when Democrats are running the show in Washington. And let's be honest, Christie is probably one of the most anti-Washington Republicans in the country right now.

Anyway, back to the districts. District 2, as you said, is more Democratic than baseline. Still, I'm accurate in saying there are a lot of Republicans there who will turn out in droves: This is a Republican County on a local level. It's questionable how strong Democrats are going to be in Atlantic City. This is a district that got hit hard by Sandy.

Republicans picked up District 4 in 2009, the last time Christie was on the ballot. It's very independent heavy. So too is District 14, and while Greenstein is popular, so too was Inverso. Yeah, I admit, it's been a while since Inverso was on the ballot last, and Roma Bank probably doesn't make him more popular. Still, these are just the kind of districts that are going to go nuts over Christie this year. I wouldn't want to be running downballot there as a Democrat this year (or, coincidentally, as a Republican next year).

I don't think the GOP will actually win the 18th, because I don't think a Republican can win anything but a sneak attack there. If Stahl wins, it'll be a surprise to everyone.

If I'm doling out money for the Senate GOP, the bulk goes to win 2. Inverso gets whatever he negotiated when Kean Jr. got him to run in 14. I'd pay for a bunch of polling in District 1, and I'd try to get Christie to visit as much as possible. Ultimately only the Assembly seats there look vulnerable. I'd make an arrangement to have a full-time intern out on District 18, because I think this is the exact kind of area the GOP needs to improve its performance to be more credible statewide in 10 years to combat the inevitable decline elsewhere. Wouldn't hurt getting more people operatives with the territory.
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Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
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