NJ Gov.: The fix is in for Chris Christie

[krazen1211]

What's the likelihood the state legislature (or one chamber) flips to divided or Republican control?

And if that's not likely, what about the chances of a 'coalition' agreement springing up like in the NY-state senate or the WA-state senate? Wasn't the NJ redistricting similar to the WA redistricting?

Assembly? 0%

Senate? 0.01% The only remotely plausible (and not really) pickups are 2, 14, 38. Next on the list would be 18.



The NJ redistricting is a Democratic gerrymander. Corzine won 19 districts in 2009.

[krazen1211]

Actually, I heard the Senate is a possibility. Not a strong possibility but things are apparently breaking the GOP's way in the swing seats. Sweeney supposedly might even go down. Wouldn't that be something?

3 and 27 might be a possibility in an open seat situation. Even looking at the initial set of 4 districts, the issue is that 14 is full of government unions, and 18 is Buono's district. The east Brunswick mayor (conservative part of that district) is running there.

There were some disappointing results in 2 and 38 back in 2011.


The incumbents are all in the wrong places for the GOP.

[krazen1211]

Actually, I heard the Senate is a possibility. Not a strong possibility but things are apparently breaking the GOP's way in the swing seats. Sweeney supposedly might even go down. Wouldn't that be something?

The only real swing seat held by a Dem is the 1st.  People seem to think that the 2nd should be Republican, but even Corzine tied there in 2009 even as he was getting blown out statewide and had most dem bosses sitting on their hands.

That's not really accurate. The Assembly districts in 2 are both Republican held.

[krazen1211]

I had presumed that Buono was in on it too.  Don't most sacrificial lambs know that that's what they are?

No doubt at all. After getting elbowed out as NJ Senate Majority Leader, I imagine she's just building name recognition to run for something bigger (maybe Pallone's seat if he decides to run for Lautenberg's seat?)

It won't be that. Someone else closer to the establishment will get the Middlesex County party line. Wonder if Wisniewski wants it.

[krazen1211]

The east Brunswick mayor (conservative part of that district) is running there.

If East Brunswick is considered the conservative part of the district, it's going to take some massive personality issues/advantages for the Republican to win. EB is heavily Jewish and Asian.

It's about as Asian as Middlesex County as a whole, but has more whites and less blacks/Hispanics.