Kent by-election

[DL]

There have now been two byelections in New Brunswick since the 2010 election. Kent last night and Rothesay last June. The ridings are very very different from one another, but in both cases the pattern was for the Tory vote to crash, the Liberal vote to hold steady and for the NDP to go way up from low teens to high 20s...

I think at the very least it is fair to say that New Brunswick is becoming a party with a three party political system and one consequence of the NDP making such credible showings in these byelections is that between this and the latest polling numbers - the media is now starting to treat the NDP as one of the "big three" in a way they never did before. In the 2010 election the moment the writ dropped the media coverage made it out to be the traditional "Hatfields vs. the McCoys" Tory vs Grit run-off with the NDP treated as a fringe party along side the Greens and the so-called Peoples Alliance...that will not be the case in 2014.

[DL]

Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

An essential ingredient to winning seats in 2014 is for the NB NDP to be seen as a serious player by the local media...that rubicon has been crossed. It it is one factor that is necessary (though not sufficient) to win seats.

[DL]

Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

And that's the problem. The NDP surge won't mean a thing if all it means is they finish a stronger 3rd in every riding instead of a weak 3rd. Gotta love FPTP.

Rothesay and Kent are two of the least winnable and most inhospitable ridings in all of NB for the NDP. If they can make a strong high 20s showing in those ridings - it means that they ought to be very much in contention in ridings in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton where there is already an NDP base to build on and where there will be more three-way races.