Kent by-election

[Hatman 🍁]

There will be a provincial by-election in the riding of Kent, NB on Monday.

2010 map:



The riding is mostly Francophone, but has some rural Anglophone pockets. The 2010 map does not match the linguistic divide in the riding, though. The Tory areas in the SE are around Bouctouche, a French town. The two NDP polls are the Elsipogtog First Nation where the NDP candidate got more than half of her votes from with nearly 80% of the vote in each one. She is from that Reserve.

You can check out the area (federally) on the 506's site here: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/13002.php?e=2011

The Anglo areas in the riding are just south of the Elsipogtog FN, and went heavily Liberal in the provincial election, but voted Tory in the federal election. The coastal area was more Liberal.  The Anglo areas appear to of a Red Tory tradition, backing the PCs in 2000, but going Liberal in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 federal elections. The Bouctouche area has always been the most Conservative part of the riding, for reasons I have no clue.

Federally, the NDP also won the Elsipogtog First Nation with the same candidate they had provincially, and she won 89% of the vote there. The NDP has some history in the area, having won the riding (Beausejour) in the 1997 federal election- but the MP switched parties during her term. The NDP also won a poll in Bouctouche in 2011.

The Liberals are running their seat-less leader (Brian Gallant) in the riding as it has been vacated by their former leader, former Premier Shawn Graham. The NDP is running the same candidate, so expect big numbers from the FN vote again. The Tories are running Jimmy Bourque, a carpet bagger politico staffer.

The Liberals will most assuredly win, but I wonder if the NDP has a shot at 2nd?

[Hatman 🍁]

Correction, I'm doing some more research on the language areas of the riding, and the northern and western parts are the English areas (mostly sparsely populated, except for the village of Rexton in the north), while the southern areas are the Francophone regions. The reserve is Micmac speaking.

Basically the Richibucto Valley is Anglo, and the Bouctouche Valley is Franco.

[Hatman 🍁]

For interest's sake, I just calculated the approximate linguistic breakdown:

French: 55%
English: 33%
Mi'kmaq: 10%

[Hatman 🍁]

Another correction: The federal NDP poll in the Bouctouche area is another Micmac reserve, "Bouctouche 16". Provincial that reserve is in a much larger poll/precinct, and so the NDP votes there were likely diluted.

Interestingly, the third best NDP poll in the riding is the long one along the south shore of the Bouctouche River, where the NDP got 15%. The area was strong federally too for the NDP, getting about 26% there.

[Hatman 🍁]

The riding has a long Liberal history, electing only one Tory since 1917:

Results since 1917
3 members
P.J. Melanson, Liberal (1917-1925)
A.J. Bordage, Liberal (1917-1944)
A.A. Dysart, Liberal (1917-1940)
R.G. Richard, Liberal (1925-1930)
F.G. Richard, Liberal (1930-1939)
Isaie Melanson, Liberal (1939-1956)
J.K. McKee, Liberal (1940-1952)
Armand Richard, Liberal (1944-1952)
H.A. Dysart, Liberal (1952-1964)
L.J. Robichaud, Liberal (1952-1971)
A.F. Richard, Liberal (1956-1974)
Camille Bordage, Liberal (1964-1967)
Omer Leger, Prog. Cons. (1971-1974)
---
1 member after 1974
A.R. Graham, Liberal (1967-1998)
S.M. Graham, Liberal (1998-2013)

The Tory was one of just 3 members to boot. And the riding has been represented by a Graham since 1967. A lot of nepotism in this riding from some of the surnames...

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls close at 7.

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/04/kent-by-election-in-new-brunswick.html

[Hatman 🍁]

This isn't going to be that close: (3/43 polls)

Jimmy BOURQUE   M    PC   81
Brian GALLANT   M    L   221
Susan LEVI-PETERS   F    NDP/NPD   71

[Hatman 🍁]

In %:
Lib: 39.2%
PC: 21.7%
NDP: 19.0%

The Liberal % is off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals up by 300 votes. Real race for 2nd, PCs ahead of the NDP by 3 votes. 7 polls in.

BTW, the 506  has poll maps of every NB riding here: http://the506.com/elxnmaps/NB2010/

[Hatman 🍁]

16 polls in

Jimmy BOURQUE   PC   325
Brian GALLANT   1276
Susan LEVI-PETERS   NDP/NPD   380

[Hatman 🍁]

There's someone on twitter (a Liberal insider?) who's been posting poll-by-poll results from the scrutineers. Most of them have so far come from Graham's strongest areas in 2010.

Gallant's probably going to win, but expect the margin to go down.

Cool.

I guess you are referring to @robihot.

All the polls he is reporting have gone Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

He's got one of the Mikmaq Reserves going Liberal. Not believing him...

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, scrutineers are usually ahead of the Elections people, so I don't know which one passed. Maybe he got the Lib and NDP numbers reversed for that Mikmaq poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, he was mistaken, it was poll 2. Still not reporting anything but Liberal polls so far.

[Hatman 🍁]

I bet you're putting this data into a spreadsheet, no? I bet you'll have a map ready in no time!

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow. Not bad. NDP did really well in one of the advance polls. Still no wins yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes. Wasn't the prediction from the beginning that the NDP would place 2nd?

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised that the Liberals are making gains from 2010. And, at the expense of just the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

One more poll to go.
Jimmy BOURQUE    PC   821
Brian GALLANT              L   3454
Susan LEVI-PETERS   NDP/NPD   1600

[Hatman 🍁]

Final:

Jimmy BOURQUE   M    PC   837
Brian GALLANT   M    L   3543
Susan LEVI-PETERS   F    NDP/NPD   1615

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout was 69.5% WTF

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.