Biden/Cantwell vs. Christie/Fischer

[TDAS04]

Suppose that in 2016, Vice President Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee for President, and he selects Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington as his running mate.  Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey wins the Republican nomination and picks Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska.

Who would win?  What would the electoral map look like?

[tmthforu94]

Christie certainly has many options better than Deb Fischer. Man, I can't even imagine the jokes that would start with a Biden/Cantwell ticket...

[badgate]

Why would there be jokes?

[Enderman]

Why would there be jokes?

Biden-Cant-do-well ....

[tmthforu94]

Why would there be jokes?

Biden and an attractive, younger female...

[badgate]

Why would there be jokes?

Biden-Cant-do-well ....

That's almost as cringeworthy as Rubio trying to play along with the water bottle gaffe.

[Mister Mets]

Interesting tickets. I think Christie is the stronger candidate, and that Biden is weaker than most Democratic nominees (due to his age, and propensity for gaffes). I also expect the 2016 cycle to favor Republicans.

They are likely to compete for the same sets of swing voters, they have similar regional advantages and their running mates are also quite similar (female Western Senators.)

I'll split the states into different categories, based on the circumstances under which a party can win.

If the electoral vote difference is under five points, they should win all the leaning and safe seats.

Safe Democratic...(152 electoral votes)
I'd give Biden a 9 out of 10 chance of carrying the following states.
New York, California, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, DC

Leaning Democratic...(38 electoral votes)
Biden wins these states 2 out of 3 times.
Oregon, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine

Toss-Up Favoring Democratic...(37 electoral votes)
Biden wins these states slightly more than half the time.
Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico

Toss-Up Favoring Republicans...(63 electoral votes)
Christie wins these states slightly more than half the time.
Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota

Leaning Republican....(111 electoral votes)
Christie wins these states 2 out of 3 times.
Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska's most liberal congressional district, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia

Safe Republican....(165 electoral votes)
I'd give Christie a 9 out of 10 chance of carrying these states.
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

[Statesman]

About jokes on Cantwell's name -

There was a Republican candidate for Senate in 2006 in our state named Mike McGavick. Mike put up ads on buses - something along the lines of "Maria Can't-Vote-Well".

He lost by 17 points, 56.9% to 39.9%.

Republican candidates for statewide office in Washington who aren't named Slade Gorton, Dino Rossi or Rob McKenna tend to be unable to break 40%.

Nationwide would be another story and would certainly be narrower - she could probably be on a winning ticket as VP if the climate's right or if she's chosen by Hillary somehow, but she doesn't seem to have a ton of national name recognition even though she's been in the Senate for over a decade.

Also, 3 and a half years from now, Biden may actually be able to beat Christie. His approvals won't stay 70% forever - they may very well be back at 50/50 in a couple years.

[badgate]

Interesting tickets. I think Christie is the stronger candidate, and that Biden is weaker than most Democratic nominees (due to his age, and propensity for gaffes). I also expect the 2016 cycle to favor Republicans.

I like this format. I hope you don't mind if I copy it.

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My map:

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Since the Veep picks nullify each other, based on what we know today I can't see any way in which Biden could make it close with Christie.

[Mister Mets]

Since the Veep picks nullify each other, based on what we know today I can't see any way in which Biden could make it close with Christie.

Biden may have a shot against Christie, but he would require things to go his way. There would have to be a major demographic shift towards Democrats so impressive that historians fifty years from now look at 1992 as the start of an era of Democratic party dominance of the White House. And it would also help if Obama were as popular as top Governors.

In most cases, the Veep's not going to make a difference. At worse, they screw things up. At best, they can help a bit in a key state.

The exception would be someone who provides the candidate with tremendous credibility. If McCain had backed Kerry in 2004. But I don't think we've ever seen that ticket. Though that gives me an idea...

[Michaelf7777777]

Chris Christie/ Debbie Fischer - 304 EV's
Joe Biden/ Maria Cantwell - 234 EV's

[bballrox4717]

Christie probably wins, but by a smaller margin than people expect.

Biden wins New Jersey by about 5 points. Christie makes Pennsylvania remarkably close but doesn't pull off the victory. Ohio and Florida go to Christie by about 2-3 points. Strong Democratic trends in Virginia, Colorado and Nevada makes those states a reach for Christie. Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire decide the election for Christie each by about a point or two. There are lots of similarities to the 2000 election: Christie is a pretty good candidate for the Republicans to nominate, and Biden starts off slow but runs a good campaign that exposes Christie's foreign policy inexperience. The popular vote goes to Christie by close to 2 points, and he barely misses a majority. I doubt the VPs make much of a difference, since both Cantwell and Fischer are pretty unremarkable. If the idea is to have women on each ticket, I'd replace Cantwell with Gillibrand and Fischer with Ayotte.

[bballrox4717]

Since the Veep picks nullify each other, based on what we know today I can't see any way in which Biden could make it close with Christie.

Biden may have a shot against Christie, but he would require things to go his way. There would have to be a major demographic shift towards Democrats so impressive that historians fifty years from now look at 1992 as the start of an era of Democratic party dominance of the White House. And it would also help if Obama were as popular as top Governors.

In most cases, the Veep's not going to make a difference. At worse, they screw things up. At best, they can help a bit in a key state.

The exception would be someone who provides the candidate with tremendous credibility. If McCain had backed Kerry in 2004. But I don't think we've ever seen that ticket. Though that gives me an idea...

There is a Demographic shift happening, and the Democrats start out in 2016 with the electoral college advantage. Nevada might be more flexible, but Colorado and Virginia are trending hard Dem, both with Obama's coalition and demographic shifts in those states. Virginia and Colorado are going to start off blue and Republicans will be playing catch up the entire time in those states. That's a huge disadvantage for Republicans and I really think that's understated here. Republicans need to make Wisconsin and Pennsylvania competitive if they want to win, and find a way to win Ohio and Florida without devoting as many resources in those states as Romney did.

[TDAS04]

I get that Biden/Cantwell would not be the ideal bumper sticker for the Democrats, but other than that, these tickets do make some sense.

Cantwell and Fischer provide geographic balance to their respective tickets, while Gillibrand and Ayotte certainly do not.  Maria Cantwell is a progressive Democrat, but has a pro-business streak; she supports free trade, and even voted for CAFTA.  If Hillary chooses not to run, her female supporters would be disappointed, so including a woman who backed Hillary in 2008 couldn't hurt.

Deb Fischer would reassure social conservatives about Christie, and a rancher from Nebraska would balance out the tough-talking Governor of New Jersey.

[opebo]

With some campaigning by Obama and Clintons:

Christie's hugely overrated. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

That would be my wet dream ticket for Democrats.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

If the economy is in an uptick, I'd say Biden starts with a lead, but loses ground fast after a string of "Chains" type gaffes. Christie wins by less than expected however, maybe getting a little over  50% of the popular vote and failing to flip states like Nevada, New Jersey, and Michigan.

If the economy has not recovered, I'd say Christie takes 350+ EV's, over 52% of the popular vote.

The Democrats would most likely be unable to overcome the third term curse, especially with Biden as the top of the ticket.

[7,052,770]

I may be overthinking the question, but Biden being the nominee implies that Obama is pretty popular, and that Biden can ride his coattails into the White House.

[opebo]

I may be overthinking the question, but Biden being the nominee implies that Obama is pretty popular, and that Biden can ride his coattails into the White House.

I think not - It seems to me you're getting to the heart of the matter. Biden's primary candidacy would be completely bound to Obama, so your prediction should work even against Christie, unless there were some weird unfortunate incident between primary and general.

[Mister Mets]

I may be overthinking the question, but Biden being the nominee implies that Obama is pretty popular, and that Biden can ride his coattails into the White House.

Maybe not.

It could mean that Obama's so unpopular the other top-tier Democrats see the election as a lost cause, allowing Biden to win in a field against lesser-known candidates.