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  Tim Saler - 2008 GOP Presidential Primary Projection.
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Author Topic: Tim Saler - 2008 GOP Presidential Primary Projection.  (Read 9561 times)
nick
nickshepDEM
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« on: February 19, 2005, 01:15:24 pm »
« edited: February 19, 2005, 03:13:20 pm by nickshepDEM »

The current projected delegate totals are as follows:
Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY) - 529 delegates
US Sen. Bill Frist, M.D. (TN) - 500 delegates
US Sen. John McCain (AZ) - 400 delegates
US Sen. Rick Santorum (PA) - 283 delegates   

According to sources close to Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado, he is not interested in running for President in 2008. As a result, he has been removed from my projection. All of his delegates except Nebraska's nine delegates were given to Sen. John McCain of Arizona. McCain also lost Kansas to Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, as well as Oklahoma and Texas to Sen. Bill Frist, M.D., of Tennessee

Img


Purple = Rudy Giuliani
Pink = John McCain
Red = Rick Santorum
Blue = Bill Frist

http://www.timsaler.com/
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Erc
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2005, 01:37:35 pm »

As much as I'd love a primary season like this...we'll know the winner by Super Tuesday.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2005, 01:42:54 pm »

New Hampshire for Santorum? No, that won't happen.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2005, 02:12:28 pm »

New Hampshire for Santorum? No, that won't happen.

Thats what I was thinking.  Plus, McCain wins Idaho???
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2005, 02:13:14 pm »

Can you guys see the image?  Im at work and it is comming up as a red "x".
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BobOMac2k2
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2005, 02:15:16 pm »

You arent going to have a bunch of big namers run against eachother...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2005, 02:20:14 pm »

New Hampshire for Santorum? No, that won't happen.

Thats what I was thinking.  Plus, McCain wins Idaho???

Also, I think Santorum can take SC.
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nick
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2005, 02:24:27 pm »

Also, I think Santorum can take SC.

I agree or at least finish a strong second.

Phil, can you see the image or is it a red "X"?
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TheWildCard
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2005, 02:35:21 pm »

Can you guys see the image?  Im at work and it is comming up as a red "x".

I can see it.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2005, 03:07:41 pm »

Is this a joke?
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nick
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2005, 03:11:07 pm »

No, its not a joke.  Well, at least not to the guy who made the website and map's.  I dont know what the hell he is basing his reults off of. Maybe he is rolling a die and selecting the states for each candidate that way. LOL.
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Rob
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2005, 03:13:30 pm »

It is a pretty bad map.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2005, 03:14:47 pm »

Whoever he is, he's an idiot. Roughly everything about his projection is wrong. Actually I'm not sure how you would make it worse... maybe project Don King to win or something.
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Akno21
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2005, 03:16:12 pm »

Guliani won't do very well. There could be sort of a primary within the primary, Guliani/McCain for moderates, Santorum/Frist for Conservatives.
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nick
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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2005, 03:17:27 pm »

Whoever he is, he's an idiot. Roughly everything about his projection is wrong. Actually I'm not sure how you would make it worse... maybe project Don King to win or something.

LOL, I agree.

I do think he has some parts of it right.  I agree with most of the Giuliani states and a couple of the Frist and Santorum states, but other than that he is way off.  Why would John McCain win Idaho and Wyoming?
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AuH2O
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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2005, 03:21:02 pm »

Yeah but that's not even going to be the Final 4 or however many stay in the race after NH.

I don't think EITHER McCain and Guiliani will seriously run, though the latter is much more likely than the former, and I don't think Frist will have any traction, and Santorum has to both win reelection and then decide to run, which he hasn't.

I think Santorum probably wants the Veep slot.

This is the 2005 map of someone very dumb and very out of the loop.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2005, 04:20:59 pm »


I think Santorum probably wants the Veep slot.


There is no doubt that he wants the top spot. Will he settle for VP? Who knows. His aim is for President though.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2005, 04:32:23 pm »
« Edited: February 19, 2005, 04:42:53 pm by AuH2O »


I think Santorum probably wants the Veep slot.


There is no doubt that he wants the top spot. Will he settle for VP? Who knows. His aim is for President though.

Well, he wants to be President, which is not exactly the same thing. If it's clear the establishment is backing someone else and he isn't going to win the nomination, the last thing he's gonna do is jump in and create problems.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2005, 04:41:44 pm »


I think Santorum probably wants the Veep slot.


There is no doubt that he wants the top spot. Will he settle for VP? Who knows. His aim is for President though.

Well, he wants to be President, which is not exactly the same as thing. If it's clear the establishment is backing someone else and he isn't going to win the nomination, the last thing he's gonna do is jump in and create problems.

If Santorum wins re-election in 2006, I think he'll run for President no matter what. Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.
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PADem
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« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2005, 04:57:12 pm »


Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?
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Akno21
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2005, 05:06:47 pm »


Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Bush won even though Kerry won the moderate and independent voters. Santorum will do very well among the religous right (duh), and they will come out in large numbers for him.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2005, 06:03:00 pm »


Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Santorum isn't far right. The establishment is happy that Santorum has been loyal to the party.

Santorum can win. Whether or not you like him you have to admit he is electable.
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PADem
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« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2005, 06:16:26 pm »


Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Santorum isn't far right. The establishment is happy that Santorum has been loyal to the party.

Santorum can win. Whether or not you like him you have to admit he is electable.

1. Santorum isn't far right!!!!! Where exactly do you place him then? He's certainly not anywhere near the McCain/Snowe wing of the party.

2. Yes Santorum is a good politician, a good speaker, and has charisma. He is nominatable (is that a word) BUT he is clearly to far removed from middle America to be elected President of the United States. 


Yes he will win the Billy Graham/Jerry Falwell types who may well support him in droves, but the point is, if the Democrats run anybody moderate or even a Kerry type then Santorum won't stand a chance. I just can't see how Mr and Mrs John Q. Taxpayer will support someone with such hardline politics.

And before you say it, yes his politics are hardline... Anyone who compares gays to those who engage in animal sex gets a cross in my book.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2005, 06:19:27 pm »


Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Santorum isn't far right. The establishment is happy that Santorum has been loyal to the party.

Santorum can win. Whether or not you like him you have to admit he is electable.

1. Santorum isn't far right!!!!! Where exactly do you place him then? He's certainly not anywhere near the McCain/Snowe wing of the party.

2. Yes Santorum is a good politician, a good speaker, and has charisma. He is nominatable (is that a word) BUT he is clearly to far removed from middle America to be elected President of the United States. 


Yes he will win the Billy Graham/Jerry Falwell types who may well support him in droves, but the point is, if the Democrats run anybody moderate or even a Kerry type then Santorum won't stand a chance. I just can't see how Mr and Mrs John Q. Taxpayer will support someone with such hardline politics.

And before you say it, yes his politics are hardline... Anyone who compares gays to those who engage in animal sex gets a cross in my book.


He's no where near McCain or Snowe so he's far right? Yeah...ok...I'd say he's conservative. Not far right, not moderate.

Unless you can provide me with a map (a reasonable map that is) where Santorum could lose, then stop saying how unelectable he is.

"Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Taxpayer" would prefer someone like Santorum over someone like Kerry, Gore, Clinton...

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Akno21
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« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2005, 06:20:15 pm »


Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Santorum isn't far right. The establishment is happy that Santorum has been loyal to the party.

Santorum can win. Whether or not you like him you have to admit he is electable.

1. Santorum isn't far right!!!!! Where exactly do you place him then? He's certainly not anywhere near the McCain/Snowe wing of the party.

2. Yes Santorum is a good politician, a good speaker, and has charisma. He is nominatable (is that a word) BUT he is clearly to far removed from middle America to be elected President of the United States. 


Yes he will win the Billy Graham/Jerry Falwell types who may well support him in droves, but the point is, if the Democrats run anybody moderate or even a Kerry type then Santorum won't stand a chance. I just can't see how Mr and Mrs John Q. Taxpayer will support someone with such hardline politics.

And before you say it, yes his politics are hardline... Anyone who compares gays to those who engage in animal sex gets a cross in my book.


Santorum's policies are basically the same as Bush's, except he's more outspoken on social issues. There really aren't that many Bush states that Santorum would lose, Nevada would be the best bet. The only Democrats who can beat Santorum are Bayh, some other moderate yet charismatic person, or a person who could carry Florida (Bill Nelson).
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