Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.
Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?The difference is that, post-2004, many Republicans believe (rightly or wrongly) that far right policies win elections. This is also bearing in mind that Bush was largely seen as a bit of a whackjob who couldn't win a vote outside of Texas before the 2000 election, which didn't stop him winning.
While I wouldn't say Santorum has the same kind of mainstream appeal (I still think a Santorum Presidency is very
very unlikely), I wouldn't write him off completely since stranger things have happened in politics. Also, three years is a long time - I doubt many people in 1965 seriously thought that Nixon would make a glorious comeback at the next Presidential election, just to illustrate how quickly people's perceptions of political figures can change.