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  Giuliani vs. Clinton - Who wins New York?
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Author Topic: Giuliani vs. Clinton - Who wins New York?  (Read 5360 times)
CheeseWhiz
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« on: February 19, 2005, 01:34:02 pm »

Both Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) have been talked about for the nominations, both are from New York and both have lots of name recognition.

So who wins New York?  Could Giuliani put it in play?  Or is it too Democratic for even the former NYC Mayor to win?  And, as a bonus question, could Giuliani win it against a generic democrat who’s not originally from NY?

P.S. Let's say it's just between Giuliani and Clinton, no major third parties.

P.P.S.  I'll post my take on this after awhile.
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Erc
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2005, 01:36:28 pm »

Guiliani can beat Hillary in the Senate race...

But I think Hillary wins for President.  Hard to say though.
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Rob
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2005, 03:03:57 pm »

I think it would be an easy Clinton victory, by about 10 points.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2005, 04:20:50 pm »

Guiliani can beat Hillary in the Senate race...

But I think Hillary wins for President.  Hard to say though.

I concur.
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Smash255
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2005, 04:32:29 pm »

Polls have shown Hillary beating Rudy both in a Senate Race & in a Presidential race
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2005, 04:48:28 pm »

Polls have shown Hillary beating Rudy both in a Senate Race & in a Presidential race

If there's one thing to be learned from the 2004 election it is to not believe polls.
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MaC
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2005, 05:04:52 pm »

depends is still seen as "America's mayor".  By 2008, the Sept 11th glory Giuliani recieved might dimish to where he loses against Hillary (in a close race in the state of New York).  However, Hillary has the bitch factor working against her.  If it does go presidential between the two, Hillary will lose nationally.  She'll win New England, without New Hampshire, maybe two midwestern states Chicago and Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Washington, but not Oregon.  I don't know how to make maps and post them, if someone would be kind enough to show me how...
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Rob
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2005, 05:45:45 pm »


I don't know how to make maps and post them, if someone would be kind enough to show me how...

Click where it says "evcalc" at the top of the page; that's where you make the maps.

To post them,right-click on the map, then scroll down to Properties. Click on it, then highlight the address and copy it. Then paste it where you want it to go, but put it between .
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Smash255
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2005, 06:39:08 pm »

Polls have shown Hillary beating Rudy both in a Senate Race & in a Presidential race

If there's one thing to be learned from the 2004 election it is to not believe polls.

Well Bush did lead in most of the polls going into the eletion, it was the exit polls that were messed up.  Anyway poll after poll CLinton's approval is in the 60's.  I think Rudy's Bush cheerleading has hurt him in a state in which the GOP constantly gets crushed in Natl Elections.  Going back a good 6 months before the electopn Rudy was leading Hillary in the various polls, but since the election Clinton has been leading Rudy.  Also these are the same polls that show Pataki getting crushed and that I believe because pretty much everyone I talk to regardless of Dem, Rep or Indpendent most don't like Pataki
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AuH2O
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2005, 06:57:24 pm »

Matchup won't happen, but Guiliani by ~6.
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Erc
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2005, 10:29:43 pm »

Polls have shown Hillary beating Rudy both in a Senate Race & in a Presidential race

If there's one thing to be learned from the 2004 election it is to not believe polls.

J.J.'s First Rule of Elections (as paraphrased by Erc):

As soon as a candidate starts saying 'the polls don't matter' or 'the only poll that matters is the one on November 2,' the candidate has lost.
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nclib
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2005, 11:14:49 pm »

She'll win New England, without New Hampshire, maybe two midwestern states Chicago and Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Washington, but not Oregon.

The state of Chicago?! Did you mean to type Illinois?
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Alcon
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2005, 11:18:09 pm »

She'll win New England, without New Hampshire, maybe two midwestern states Chicago and Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Washington, but not Oregon.

The state of Chicago?! Did you mean to type Illinois?

Paging Dan Quayle...
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A18
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2005, 11:19:38 pm »

Chicago owns Illinois. They might as well be one in the same.
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MaC
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2005, 03:15:37 am »

     https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?

yeah, I had a Quale moment there.  Well she's got Chicago and Cook county, but misses the rest of the state.  Hell she won't even win Arkansas.  However, she does win New York, because of her liberalism, and Guliani's "hero" status has worn off.  He would win however if this were 2002 with both running...
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MaC
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2005, 03:17:09 am »

wait bad link.  Someone tell me what putting it between [img/img] means.  I'm kind computer illiterate.
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Smash255
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2005, 04:18:34 am »

wait bad link.  Someone tell me what putting it between [img/img]http://means.  I'm kind computer illiterate.

you have to go into properties and copy the entire adress (its really long) you only have a portiond of the address)

you start off with

the [img] thing basically lets the site know your posting an image hence img
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Defarge
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2005, 10:10:29 am »

I'd vote Rudy
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dazzleman
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2005, 11:02:01 am »

I think Hillary would win New York in a presidential election, but Giuliani would win most everywhere else.

New York voters don't seem to have a lot of brain wave activity these days.  The state is a pathetic mess, and the voters have effectively made it that way.
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ian
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« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2005, 12:39:12 pm »

Clinton.  But only because she represents the WHOLE state.  Giuliani represented only NYC.  And it leans Dem anyway, so I would say Hillary by 3-5%.
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Snowe08
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« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2005, 01:43:16 pm »

Clinton.  But only because she represents the WHOLE state.  Giuliani represented only NYC.  And it leans Dem anyway, so I would say Hillary by 3-5%.
I was under the impression that outside of NYC, the state was more conservative-leaning (hence, I suppose, why they have a Republican Governor) than the City? I also get the impression that NYC accounts for a pretty big chuck of the state's population. Therefore, if both of these impressions are semi-accurate, if there was a Republican who could win NYC, wouldn't they have a pretty good chance of winning the state?
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2005, 01:50:46 pm »

Clinton.  But only because she represents the WHOLE state.  Giuliani represented only NYC.  And it leans Dem anyway, so I would say Hillary by 3-5%.
I was under the impression that outside of NYC, the state was more conservative-leaning (hence, I suppose, why they have a Republican Governor) than the City? I also get the impression that NYC accounts for a pretty big chuck of the state's population. Therefore, if both of these impressions are semi-accurate, if there was a Republican who could win NYC, wouldn't they have a pretty good chance of winning the state?

As I said in another thread, if you take out NYC from NY it turns into a Democrat leaning swing state that a republican could actually win in unlike the city-dominated, always Democrat state it seems to be turned into.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2005, 01:57:04 pm »

Clinton.  But only because she represents the WHOLE state.  Giuliani represented only NYC.  And it leans Dem anyway, so I would say Hillary by 3-5%.

I disagree.  Giuliani is more popular outside the city than he is inside the city.  Hillary would beat him in NYC, but he would beat Hillary in the rest of the state.  The relative margins would determine who would win overall.

Without the poison of NYC in the equation, Giuliani would beat Hillary in a walk.
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ian
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« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2005, 11:31:34 pm »

All good points.
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Smash255
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« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2005, 02:33:28 am »

Clinton.  But only because she represents the WHOLE state.  Giuliani represented only NYC.  And it leans Dem anyway, so I would say Hillary by 3-5%.
I was under the impression that outside of NYC, the state was more conservative-leaning (hence, I suppose, why they have a Republican Governor) than the City? I also get the impression that NYC accounts for a pretty big chuck of the state's population. Therefore, if both of these impressions are semi-accurate, if there was a Republican who could win NYC, wouldn't they have a pretty good chance of winning the state?

As I said in another thread, if you take out NYC from NY it turns into a Democrat leaning swing state that a republican could actually win in unlike the city-dominated, always Democrat state it seems to be turned into.

it wouldn't exactly be a swing state it would be more of a lean state along the lines of Washington (5-8% or so in close elections).  Now when you take NYC out of the equation and you tak the burbs out as well (Long Island & Westchester) then it really becomes a swing state
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