Giuliani vs. Clinton - Who wins New York?

[Smash255]

Polls have shown Hillary beating Rudy both in a Senate Race & in a Presidential race

[Smash255]

Polls have shown Hillary beating Rudy both in a Senate Race & in a Presidential race

If there's one thing to be learned from the 2004 election it is to not believe polls.

Well Bush did lead in most of the polls going into the eletion, it was the exit polls that were messed up.  Anyway poll after poll CLinton's approval is in the 60's.  I think Rudy's Bush cheerleading has hurt him in a state in which the GOP constantly gets crushed in Natl Elections.  Going back a good 6 months before the electopn Rudy was leading Hillary in the various polls, but since the election Clinton has been leading Rudy.  Also these are the same polls that show Pataki getting crushed and that I believe because pretty much everyone I talk to regardless of Dem, Rep or Indpendent most don't like Pataki

[Smash255]

wait bad link.  Someone tell me what putting it between [img/img]http://means.  I'm kind computer illiterate.

you have to go into properties and copy the entire adress (its really long) you only have a portiond of the address)

you start off with

the [img] thing basically lets the site know your posting an image hence img

[Smash255]

Clinton.  But only because she represents the WHOLE state.  Giuliani represented only NYC.  And it leans Dem anyway, so I would say Hillary by 3-5%.

I was under the impression that outside of NYC, the state was more conservative-leaning (hence, I suppose, why they have a Republican Governor) than the City? I also get the impression that NYC accounts for a pretty big chuck of the state's population. Therefore, if both of these impressions are semi-accurate, if there was a Republican who could win NYC, wouldn't they have a pretty good chance of winning the state?

As I said in another thread, if you take out NYC from NY it turns into a Democrat leaning swing state that a republican could actually win in unlike the city-dominated, always Democrat state it seems to be turned into.

it wouldn't exactly be a swing state it would be more of a lean state along the lines of Washington (5-8% or so in close elections).  Now when you take NYC out of the equation and you tak the burbs out as well (Long Island & Westchester) then it really becomes a swing state

[Smash255]

IIRC, Gore carried upstate 49-44 in 2000, but I don't know how well Kerry did there overall. Does anyone have those numbers?

I think it was about even  LI was quite a bit closer than it was in 2000, but that had a lot to do with the 9/11 rollover effect than anything else.  Upstate is a mix depending on the areas, rural areas trend Republican while the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse & Albany areas all trend dem, Long Island has gone from safe Rep to safe Dem

[Smash255]

Yes, the religious right are definately just going to sit by and let that happen. And we all know Rudy has the perfect appeal for the Iowa and South Carolina GOP.

It's not even that. Rudy knows he's not going to go from being a former Mayor to President.

One thing about Rudy regardless if you like him or don't he is very aarrogant and it wouldn't suprise me if he tried to fo from Mayor tio President.  Him being very socially liberal would kill him in the primaries, but I would not be suprised if he ran