Its 2010: If Patterson merely ran, he gets edged out by Carl Paladino 50-48 for the Governorship after continually surging in the polls because of Carl Paladino being CARL PALADINO.
George Pataki barely wins the Republican primary, but defeats Gillibrand, who edges Cuomo by 36-33 margin, nevertheless by a fairly decent margin.
I still don't think Paterson winds up with Dem Nomination for Governor even in this scenario... Someone like DiNapoli or Bloomberg would likely run and beat Paterson.
Governor's race- Bloomberg 51 Paladino 46 (Some of New York's Minor Parties would likely nominate their own candidates.)
As for the Democrats Primary Gillibrand loses to Cuomo (IMO of course) 35-32 with Meeks drawing 20% and Lowey 13%
Pataki wins the GOP Primary in a squeaker with 28% of the vote Mangano picks up 25% Kelly 24% Collins 23%. Mangano plays up the tea party role and nearly catches Pataki but can't quite do so.
General Election- Cuomo50% Pataki 49%. Really, New York was a recruiting fail for the GOP. while they don't pick up the seat, the 2010 climate + Pataki as the nominee allows the GOP to spend more in Senate races they have a better shot at winning and ultimately they pickup Colorado, Nevada and West Virginia forcing a 50-50 senate.
