US-Canada County Maps Thread

[RI]

So I know exactly what I'm looking for, what are the key industries in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, etc., that you believe would impact the projections?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So I know exactly what I'm looking for, what are the key industries in Atlantic Canada...

Unemployment

[Hatman 🍁]

So I know exactly what I'm looking for, what are the key industries in Atlantic Canada...

Unemployment

Heh.

Mining and the fishery. Would apply mining to the NWT, Labrador and northern Manitoba as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mining and the fishery.

That's what I said...

[Hatman 🍁]

Mining and the fishery.

That's what I said...

[bgwah]

There were polls by province, IIRC. Could those be incorporated? Canada would be almost all dark red... But still.

The first map might be a good indication of how Canada might vote had it been annexed by the USA long ago.

[Joe Republic]

Amazing work.

Elliot County is confusing- It is that green county in Kentucky, right?

If you lived in Elliott County, wouldn't you lose your faith in God too?

[RI]

The first map might be a good indication of how Canada might vote had it been annexed by the USA long ago.

Yes, that's my goal. I don't think a blood red Canada map would be super interesting.

[Linus Van Pelt]

It would actually be very interesting to see a map like this of the United States based on how it would have voted according to a national demographic calibration. The differences from the actual county results in the same election would indicate local factors that aren't captured by whatever broad demographic categories were being used.

[RI]

It would actually be very interesting to see a map like this of the United States based on how it would have voted according to a national demographic calibration. The differences from the actual county results in the same election would indicate local factors that aren't captured by whatever broad demographic categories were being used.

That would basically be mapping my residuals. I'm adding in some industry data, then we'll see what I get out of that.

[Hash]

I'd be interested in seeing a map of the (much more competitive) Quebec results when the Francophone factor is removed from the model.

[RI]

I'd be interested in seeing a map of the (much more competitive) Quebec results when the Francophone factor is removed from the model.

I'm planning on doing this.

[Hatman 🍁]

The first map might be a good indication of how Canada might vote had it been annexed by the USA long ago.

Yes, that's my goal. I don't think a blood red Canada map would be super interesting.

Like this one?

[nclib]

This is one of my favorites: a religion map. The data for Canada is from the 2001 Census, so it might be a bit old, but not too much. The data for the US is the most recent ARDA data with some adjustments I made: I took the adherents data and compared it to the ARIS survey of religious self-identification. I found that the data matched up nationally for Catholics and minor religions but not Protestants due to the about 14% of the population that identifies as generically Christian but doesn't attend any one specific church. So I adjusted for these "invisible Christians" to ARIS levels, and divided the new total adherents by the total adult population and fixed a couple other minor issues to get this map:



It's worth pointing out that "no religion" does not necessarily equal atheist or agnostic.

Surprised that Romney won more "no religion" counties, 19-15 (didn't check Alaska).

[RI]

I reran my models with NAICS industry data, and I'm afraid that most of your objections to my projections were not impacted greatly, though my R²s increased across the board by about 0.05. Obama's vote share rose in some places and fell in others, and overall Romney actually gained. Obama's vote shares in a lot of the major cities fell (I did feel they were rather high before), though he gained in some other areas.

New province numbers
Alberta: Romney 59.78%, Obama 38.12% (Romney +3.03%)
British Columbia: Obama 60.60%, Romney 37.10% (Romney +4.12%)
Manitoba: Romney 52.10%, Obama 45.72% (Romney +2.54%)
New Brunswick: Obama 53.62%, Romney 44.39% (Obama +0.73%)
Newfoundland and Labrador: Romney 66.54%, Obama 31.31% (Obama +2.33%)
Northwest Territories: Romney 52.46%, Obama 45.45% (Obama +3.49%)
Nova Scotia: Romney 57.59%, Obama 40.31% (Obama +0.91%)
Nunavut: Obama 66.30%, Romney 31.62% (Obama +4.63%)
Ontario: Obama 53.28%, Romney 44.66% (Romney +2.50%)
Prince Edward Island: Romney 58.92%, Obama 39.00% (Obama +1.23%)
Quebec: Obama 85.78%, Romney 12.38% (Romney +1.49%)
Saskatchewan: Romney 64.38%, Obama 33.47% (Romney +2.78%)
Yukon Territory: Romney 59.40%, Obama 38.52% (Obama +1.31%)

I'll have maps later.

[Antonio the Sixth]

These maps are absolutely fantastic!!!!

Does anyone have the blank map? It could be extremely useful to me.

[RI]

These maps are absolutely fantastic!!!!

Does anyone have the blank map? It could be extremely useful to me.

I made the map myself:

[Antonio the Sixth]

You did, really? Great job!

[RI]

Updated election projection:

[RI]

Here's the projection of Quebec from the updated model without the French block vote. This map is actually a very slight Romney victory, 49.70%-48.28%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Amusing how it's so much similar to the average US state where the cities are heavily Dem and the rural areas aren't.

Too bad the industry data didn't change much, but I see at least Cochrane District flipped to Obama.

For the record, here is the 2008 federal election results by census division:



We haven't crunched the 2011 numbers yet.

[Benj]

Incorporating that data (or 2011 data if it's available) would definitely help solve the problem. Not entirely to determine the results, of course, but maybe as around 30% of the weight.

Something like assuming 85% of NDP/Green voters, 70% of Bloc voters, 60% of Liberal voters and 20% of Conservative voters would vote Democratic (and the rest Republican). Not perfect (an enormous portion of Chinese-Canadian Conservative voters would vote Democratic, for example), but it would help fix obviously wrong assumptions about Vancouver Island, Atlantic Canada and Northern Ontario.

[RI]

I have a couple more variables I can try, but I would rather not include actual election data. However, if you have election results by census division (actual percentages), I am interested in potentially doing a reverse projection: how the US might have voted if it were annexed by Canada long ago.

[bgwah]

I have a couple more variables I can try, but I would rather not include actual election data. However, if you have election results by census division (actual percentages), I am interested in potentially doing a reverse projection: how the US might have voted if it were annexed by Canada long ago.

I would love to see that. Maybe even precinct maps?! Though Canada's small black and Hispanic populations might make it difficult to compare.

[RI]

Maybe it would be better to use riding data for a projection onto the US?