US-Canada County Maps Thread

[RI]

Religion by Census Subdivision, East Canada, 2011 NHS - "Other Christian" Separate from Protestant

[2952-0-0]

So Québecois identify as Canadian rather than French? I'm surprised.

They identify as "Canadien" and not French, and have no attachment to France.

During World War One, English Canadians signed up in droves out of loyalty to the British motherland. And despite propaganda asking Quebecois to "fight for France", the war was so unpopular in Quebec that when conscription was introduced in 1917 there were riots across Quebec. Ironically the war helped create a separate Canadian identity among English Canadians.

[Hatman 🍁]

Religion by Census Subdivision, East Canada, 2011 NHS - "Other Christian" Separate from Protestant

Very interesting. Some yellow areas in southern Ontario are interesting. I don't know enough about them to know what denomination they are. Amish? Mennonite?

[RI]

Very interesting. Some yellow areas in southern Ontario are interesting. I don't know enough about them to know what denomination they are. Amish? Mennonite?

The big cluster of yellow WSW of Toronto appears to be Mennonite.

[Hatman 🍁]

Very interesting. Some yellow areas in southern Ontario are interesting. I don't know enough about them to know what denomination they are. Amish? Mennonite?

The big cluster of yellow WSW of Toronto appears to be Mennonite.

Makes sense.

There is also eastern Elgin County, western Niagara Region and Leamington that are yellow to. I wonder what they are?

[RI]

Very interesting. Some yellow areas in southern Ontario are interesting. I don't know enough about them to know what denomination they are. Amish? Mennonite?

The big cluster of yellow WSW of Toronto appears to be Mennonite.

Makes sense.

There is also eastern Elgin County, western Niagara Region and Leamington that are yellow to. I wonder what they are?

The Niagara area around Lincoln, Ont. appears to also be a Dutch Mennonite-settled area. The eastern Elgin County area appears to be a mix of Mexican-born German Mennonites and Amish from Ohio who left the US due to a nuclear reactor being built near their homes.

[MaxQue]

So Québecois identify as Canadian rather than French? I'm surprised.

They identify as "Canadien" and not French, and have no attachment to France.

During World War One, English Canadians signed up in droves out of loyalty to the British motherland. And despite propaganda asking Quebecois to "fight for France", the war was so unpopular in Quebec that when conscription was introduced in 1917 there were riots across Quebec. Ironically the war helped create a separate Canadian identity among English Canadians.

I'm pretty sure our family always filled French on the form.

[Sbane]

So purple must be Sikh? And orange Jewish?

In the first map yes. In the second map, Jewish is yellow.

I am confused. The only difference between the first and second map was that in the second you combined "other" Christians with the Protestants. How would that affect the Sikh or Jewish population?

[Qavvavak]

USA would get 3,100 seats if they part Canadian's federal govt and together 3,100 + 338 = 3,438 seats.....

If Canada part in USA, they would get 70 EV in US style, and 538 + 70 total 608.

I cant believe 3,100 is too much... California would get 338 seats because California's population like Canadian populaiton... lol

[CatoMinor]

Largest Ethnicity by Census Division, 2011 NHS

Is the this the equivalent to the southern whites in  the US putting "American" for the census lol?

[Hatman 🍁]

So, we have a map of the 2011 federal election by census division now:

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Liberal, Version 1 (5% increments):



NDP, Version 1 (5% increments):



Green, Version 1 (1% increments):

Do you have these maps somewhere?

[King of Kensington]

Is the this the equivalent to the southern whites in  the US putting "American" for the census lol?

In a way, yes.  "Canadian" ancestry is most commonly reported in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, where a majority trace their roots in Canada to before Confederation (1867).

However one difference is that while in the US "American" ancestry is only tallied a single-ancestry response, multiple "Canadian" responses are recorded in the Canadian census.

A majority of single-origin Canadians are in Quebec.

From the 2016 census:

Canadian (all responses)

Canada:  11,135,965  32.3%
Quebec:  4,647,835  58.3%

Canadian (single ancesty)

Canada:  6,436,935  18.7%
Quebec:  3,501,850  44%

[jimrtex]

Is the this the equivalent to the southern whites in  the US putting "American" for the census lol?

In a way, yes.  "Canadian" ancestry is most commonly reported in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, where a majority trace their roots in Canada to before Confederation (1867).

However one difference is that while in the US "American" ancestry is only tallied a single-ancestry response, multiple "Canadian" responses are recorded in the Canadian census.

A majority of single-origin Canadians are in Quebec.

From the 2016 census:

Canadian (all responses)

Canada:  11,135,965  32.3%
Quebec:  4,647,835  58.3%

Canadian (single ancesty)

Canada:  6,436,935  18.7%
Quebec:  3,501,850  44%

Are persons able to differentiate between Canadian and Canadien?

[King of Kensington]

No.

[jimrtex]

No.

So people who see the box marked Canadien, don't think of themselves as Maple Leafers?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here's the projection of Quebec from the updated model without the French block vote. This map is actually a very slight Romney victory, 49.70%-48.28%.

This is beautiful.

[RI]

A lot of the maps in this thread were hosted by imageshack and have been lost. I don't have the original versions, unfortunately.

Would anyone be interested in updated versions of the vote projections, maybe at a lower geographic level (census subdivision/tract) and for 2016?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I'd like to see that.

[OctoCube]

A lot of the maps in this thread were hosted by imageshack and have been lost. I don't have the original versions, unfortunately.

Would anyone be interested in updated versions of the vote projections, maybe at a lower geographic level (census subdivision/tract) and for 2016?

That's a shame, I just found this thread and it seems very interesting.

I'd be very interested in updated vote projections for 2016.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of the maps in this thread were hosted by imageshack and have been lost. I don't have the original versions, unfortunately.

Would anyone be interested in updated versions of the vote projections, maybe at a lower geographic level (census subdivision/tract) and for 2016?

Yes, of course! Trump vs. Clinton would be interesting.  I could compare it to actual polling data I have.

[VPH]

Oh my gosh I would love to see this updated!!! So cool!

[catographer]

Lol yes, please bump! I pm'd RI about this a few days ago, cuz I love the maps on here.

[RI]

Okay, so here's a taste of what the overall projection patterns look like. As a reminder, these projections only take into consideration demographic and economic patterns, not actual political views or cultural differences. As such, Canada will look more Republican than in reality. The thought experiment here is if Canada had been annexed long ago by the US but otherwise developed and was settled identically.

Here are the province/territory level results for the past three elections. These are based off regressions at the American precinct level. I take a ton of variables and interactions into account including age, race, gender, marital status, education, income, density, industry, ancestry, house values, unemployment, commuting behavior, and other variables.



For 2016, Nova Scotia comes out as the most Democratic province (slightly above BC) while Saskatchewan is the most Republican.

In general, I'm finding less extreme results than last time I did this as I'm using precinct rather than county data.

[RI]

2008 by Census Division:


2012 by Census Division:


2016 by Census Division:


2008-2012 Swing:


2012-2016 Swing: