Who is most likely to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination?

[Mister Mets]

Christie.

It's likelier that he'll run than that Rubio will run. Rubio may back Jeb.

And he has less competition among the more moderate primary voters that supported Romney in 2012, and McCain in 2000 and 2008.

Rand Paul's views are likely to divide primary voters. He has a shot, but I would rate him below Christie, Rubio and Ryan.

[Mister Mets]

The vote split will help Christie rise to the top of a crowded field. By the time the momentum builds for one alternative, he'll have a huge lead and be unstoppable. He'll likely be forced to pick a right-wing VP, but he's the easy favorite.

Or Christie is the Huntsman of 2016.

He seems to have advantages Huntsman didn't.

He starts as the top candidate in his category, while Huntsman had to compete with Romney.

He starts with higher name recognition.

And he's an impressive presence. At the very least, we're likely to get some good town hall videos with Christie.

[Mister Mets]

Christie is the most likely nominee/not likely to be the nominee.

This is probably true. With a potentially crowded field, there is no Republican with a better than even chance of being the nominee.

[Mister Mets]

Christie is the most likely nominee/not likely to be the nominee.

This is probably true. With a potentially crowded field, there is no Republican with a better than even chance of being the nominee.

How many Republicans are even better than even to run? I'd say Santorum, Paul, maybe Cruz and that's it. I don't think any Republican is much higher than 10% to be nominee or will be until 2015.

I'd say Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum are more likely than not to run

Rick Santorum is close to certain, barring health issues. Followed by Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal. And then Rand Paul at something like 75% likelihood of running.

Paul Ryan's numbers have taken a beating, although he handled himself well enough as a Veep candidate. And you don't agree to the spot unless you're really ambitious.

I don't see immigration as a major issue for Rubio, but there is the Jeb question. There's probably a 40% chance he decides to sit out 2016.

Cruz has been making some moves, and the far right likes him. But it isn't clear how he'll hold up to national scrutiny.