Germany with Danish Parties and Danish 2% threshold
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politicus
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« on: April 25, 2013, 11:14:30 AM »

How would Germany with Danish Parties and Danish 2% threshold look like?

Where would Deutsche Volkspartei be strongest? In the run doen parts old East Germany or would it do well in the CSU heartland?

Also CDU voters have to chose between Liberals or Conservatives, would the Liberals still be largest as in DK, or would the Conservatives suddenly become a big party?

How does Linke voters split between SPP and Red-Green Alliace and which of three Liberals parties do most FDP voters choce (I would suppose Liberal Alliance).

Do Greens go Social Liberal or SPP?

I suppose the Christian Democrats are bigger in Germany? 

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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2013, 06:22:24 PM »

Here's a guess:
      The majority of the CDU's voters go to Venstre.  I suppose Merkel would be their ideal leader.  Economically super-neoliberal in her thought though pragmatic in her actions.  Socially moderate, though rather un-vocal on social issues on the whole.  Perfect fit.
      The SPD would correspond quite well with the Dabish Social Democrts.  Still overall maintaining their working-class base, though they've abandoned any sympathy with the working-class and the poor in practice.  I guess lead by Steinbrück.  
      The DVP would take support across the board.  There was a poll a while back in Germany that showed something like 18 or 20% support for a hypothetical party lead by Thilo Sarrazin, and it took from the CDU/CSU primarily, but also quite a bit from the SPD, and, ironically, the Left.  And it was before the Pirate wave, but given the Pirate Party's rather shady connections with the NDP, I suspect it'd take some of their supporters too.  Lead by Thilo Sarrazin.
      The Social Liberals would be a mixture of the centrist, upper-middle-class, green liberal wing of the Green Party, LOTS of Pirates, and maybe some centrist SPD types, though most of the SPD right would be Socialdemokraterne, since you can't become Prime Minister as a Social Liberal.  Maybe lead by Cem Özdemir.  
      The Socialist People's Party would be a coalition of left-leaning Greens and some of the people in die Linke who aren't past-GDR mofos.  Maybe some of the remaining SPD left as well.  Lead by Jürgen Trittin, most likely.  Maybe Florian Pronold, if they're going for a younger angle.  
      The Red-Green Alliance would probably have the misfortune of being the one where all the communist sh*ts go, since this is the one which the Communists merged into way-back-when.  The only young, hippie far-left types who'd be here would be recent SVP converts angry at their participation in an austerity government.  I suppose there'd be a political vacuum now for a left-of-SVP party that isn't lead by communists.  At any rate, the Alliance would probably be lead by Sarah Wagenknecht.  
      The Liberal Alliance corresponds quite well to the FDP.  Lead by Phillip Rösler, with tons of leadership fights going on.  
      The Conservative People's Party would basically be a part of the CDU that's more right-wing than Merkel but still not off-the-wall-conservative.  Don't know who'd lead it.  Gutenberg would've been ideal back in the day, but I don't know about now.
      The Christian Democrats would essentially be the parts of the CDU/CSU that still want the party's theme to be "OMG DA GAYZ, OMG DA ABORTIONISTS!" Maybe Seehoffer.
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politicus
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« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2013, 06:43:17 PM »

Okay, that was interesting. I agree German version of DPP would probably do quite well.

I think two of the parties would be different than you place them.

Danish Christian Democrats are very green (we are caretakers of the Earth God gave us etc.), pro development aid, humanitarian refugee policy, eurosceptic and pro decentralisation. This mix tend to attract some relatively progressive types (who are - of course - also religious and dont mind the anti-abortion thing). Could any Greens go for that combo?

Danish Conservatives are more green than Venstre (which isnt sayng much...), has a softer social profile than Venstre, and a focus on quality in culture and education, their immigration policies are also more "liberal" than our Liberals in Venstre. So despite being tough on law and order they actually have a softer image than Venstre in many ways. I could imagine Bildungsburgertum/academics being attracted to them. 
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2013, 04:17:32 AM »

     The Socialist People's Party would be a coalition of left-leaning Greens and some of the people in die Linke who aren't past-GDR mofos.  Maybe some of the remaining SPD left as well.  Lead by Jürgen Trittin, most likely.  Maybe Florian Pronold, if they're going for a younger angle.  

Pronold is certainly not a leftwinger - he's very much in the current SPD's mainstream.

Otherwise I agree, but the Christian Democrats sound more like the ÖDP  than the CSU.
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politicus
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2013, 04:39:29 AM »
« Edited: April 30, 2013, 04:54:15 AM by politicus »

     The Socialist People's Party would be a coalition of left-leaning Greens and some of the people in die Linke who aren't past-GDR mofos.  Maybe some of the remaining SPD left as well.  Lead by Jürgen Trittin, most likely.  Maybe Florian Pronold, if they're going for a younger angle.  

Pronold is certainly not a leftwinger - he's very much in the current SPD's mainstream.

Otherwise I agree, but the Christian Democrats sound more like the ÖDP than the CSU.

Going by the description in wikipedia ÖDP sounds almost exactly like the Danish Christian Democrats. So I guess that wouldn't sell in Germany either, since they have been unsuccessful, but maybe that would be different with a 2% threshold?

What about the Conservatives? Compared to the mainstream right wing party you get more emphasis on lowering taxes, but also:

- more liberal refugee policy
- more green environmental policy
- bigger emphasis on securing quality in education and culture (elitist approach to art - "support real talent")
- wanting to help psychiatric patients, drug addicts, disabled people, homeless etc.

Basically a "let the middle class take care of themselves and help the people who really need it" approach to social policy.

Would there be a market for that among CDU voters, or is a "weird" combo in a German context? What do you think of my idea that it would attract Bildungs-burgertum, or is there no such well defined group in modern Germany?
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