Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[ZuWo]

    Isn't it usually the case that German-speaking Switzerland is more right-wing than French-speaking Switzerland? I'm hardly an expert on the matter, but that is what my observations have tended to bear out.

Yes, that's usually the case. On the one hand there is a clear urban-rural divide but there are also regional differences. Broadly speaking, the French-speaking cantons are more left-wing on economic issues and more socially liberal. Historically they also tended to be more EU-friendly than both the German-speaking and Italian areas but that's been changing lately because there aren't many Swiss people left who want the country to join the European Union.

    There is also a question that occurred to me. I found out that Germany and Italy are both significant sources of immigration to Switzerland. How well would you say that the politics of these immigrants align with those of the natural-born Swiss Germans and Swiss Italians respectively?

Interesting question. From what I know many Italians who immigrated to Switzerland decades ago had close ties with trade unions and could therefore be considered solidly left-wing. A large number of those first-generation immigrants never acquired the Swiss citizenship, though, so their influence on Swiss politics should probably not be overestimated.

Immigration from Germany has reached its peak in the last few years. Zurich, my hometown, is a place which experienced the highest influx of immigrants from Germany so there are quite a few Germans in my circle of acquaintances. I hardly ever discuss Swiss politics with Germans, though. Indeed, Swiss people have a major flaw; they can react quite sensitively when foreigners - Germans in particular - criticize aspects of Swiss culture and politics, and most Germans know that. What I can say, however, is that most Germans who come here are astonished by certain phenomena regarding Swiss politics. The perceived extremism of the Swiss People's Party, for example, is something that strikes many of them as odd. The political views of most German immigrants are therefore probably less right-wing than the Swiss mainstream. But considering the lack of what I would call generally accepted right-wing parties in Germany I am not particularly surprised about this.  

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

     As I think I mentioned before, I have family from Switzerland. I'd like to go there one day.

[Franknburger]

     It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

I think you (probably unconsciously) hit the point when you mentioned "old wounds". WW II has left traces in almost every German city, and destroyed lots of cultural monuments. Austria, OTOH, was mostly out of reach to allied bombing, and hardly experienced any ground fighting.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

I think you (probably unconsciously) hit the point when you mentioned "old wounds". WW II has left traces in almost every German city, and destroyed lots of cultural monuments. Austria, OTOH, was mostly out of reach to allied bombing, and hardly experienced any ground fighting.

     That's an interesting thought. It never occurred to me that that might be the case, but I can see how that would work geographically.

[Tender Branson]

It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

2 factors I guess:

* Austria is a country where 50% of voting-age persons read a xenophobic/right-wing/populist newspaper each day, the "Kronen Zeitung" - that often backed the FPÖ and their campaigns.

* Austria never experienced left-wing phenomenons like the RAF and dealt with it accordingly. Also, the media in Germany "writes down" right wing people, and is much more successful than Austrian media. Also, Austrian far right politicians know exactly what they can say and what not.

[Franknburger]

    It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

I think there are two more points:

1. The GDR took pride in its anti-fascist roots and character, and accused West Germany to not have sufficiently cleared up the NSDAP legacy. Western politicians, especially Brandt and Wehner, who themselves had emigrated under Nazi rule, were eager to prove otherwise. In fact, a lot of the German political division and discussion during the 1970s, while at first glimpse only dealing with Brandt excusing to Poland, and accepting post 1945 borders, was about Germany's historical legacy and responsibility. I am not sure that Austria ever went as deep in reviewing involvement with fascism - it could conveniently point at being a victim itself (1938 "Anschluss), and deny any responsibility beyond having applauded the wrong guy ("Nobody knew what he was about to...",.

2. The German confessional divide had and still has rural Catholics, otherwise a prime target group for right-wing populism, on the anti- or at least non-fascist side (Zentrum). The NSDAP was very much a protestant party; today's NPD strongholds in East Germany also tend to be culturally protestant.  In Austria, the confessional divide doesn't play much of a role (but I could imagine it being otherwise in Switzerland, and aside/ in addition to language influencing regional voting patterns).

[ZuWo]

Less than three weeks to go until the municipal elections in Zurich take place. Time for a quick overview.

While the candidates for City Council, the executive of the Zurich, receive the biggest share of public attention the election for City Parliament are of equal importance. This is how Zurich voted in 2010:

SP: 30,3%, 39 seats
SVP: 18,6%, 24 seats
FDP: 14%, 18 seats
GP: 11,4%, 14 seats
GLP: 9,8%, 12 seats
CVP: 5,7%, 7 seats
AL: 4,2%, 5 seats
EVP: 3%, 4 seats
SD: 1,9%, 2 seats
EDU: 0,7%, 0 seats
PFZ: 0,5%, 0 seats

Total left (SP+GP+AL): 45,9%, 58 seats
Total center (GLP+CVP+EVP): 18,5%, 23 seats
Total right (SVP+FDP+EDU+PFZ): 33,7%, 42 seats
Rest (SD): 1,9, 2 seats


Looking at these figures one may be tempted to believe that there is a center-right majority in the City Parliament. However, while the left-wing parties often vote in the same way the centrist and right-wing parties hardly ever manage to find common ground; the SVP parlamentarians are often isolated and the GLP, EVP, SD and CVP members of Parliament frequently vote with the red-green parties. Thus, the City Parliament can't be considered an effective counterweight to the red-green City Council.

[ZuWo]

An interesting turn of events: The proponents of the SVP "mass immigration initiative" have gained quite a lot of ground in the last few days and weeks. The lead of the no-campaign has been reduced from 18 to just 7%. According to gfs.bern, pollster for the Swiss Broadcaster SRF, this change is mainly due to independents, who are now cleary in favor of the initiative, and the fact that more people are now certain that they are going to vote. In Switzerland, the right tends to benefit from higher turnout.    



http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Protest_vote_could_be_decisive_at_ballot_box.html?cid=37828654

[Tender Branson]

The "mass immigration" referendum could turn out to be quite close.

I'd probably vote "Yes" on this and against the Green-Party line, because I think that the current 1.2% growth rate in Switzerland is counter-productive. I think population growth rates above 0.5% are not benefitting the economy anymore, and rather creates problems like big rent-increases in cities where the immigrants move to, because the speed of building new apartments is slower than the overall population growth and because of further "Zersiedelung" of Switzerland (basically more suburbs being created at the disadvantage of the environment).

[ZuWo]

The "mass immigration" referendum could turn out to be quite close.

I'd probably vote "Yes" on this and against the Green-Party line, because I think that the current 1.2% growth rate in Switzerland is counter-productive. I think population growth rates above 0.5% are not benefitting the economy anymore, and rather creates problems like big rent-increases in cities where the immigrants move to, because the speed of building new apartments is slower than the overall population growth and because of further "Zersiedelung" of Switzerland (basically more suburbs being created at the disadvantage of the environment).

That's exactly why the Green Party of Ticino supports the initiative as well despite the fact that the national party is vehemently opposed to it. Indeed, Ticino is facing other serious problems because of the free movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the EU as well. Due to the fact that there are so many well-educated young Italians who are unemployed and are willing to work in low-skilled jobs in Switzerland, the local workforce is at an inherent disadvantage. Therefore it's no surprise that political experts expect that a large majority of the people in Ticino will vote for the initiative.

Realizing that the tide has turned, opponents of the initiative have started to emphasize the potential negative consequences if there is a yes-majority. They say that the EU will not accept additional Swiss restrictions on immigration and terminate important bilateral contracts, which would put an end to the free movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the EU. The SVP, however, says that this is not true and that the Swiss government will be in a position to negotiate with the EU to get a better deal for Switzerland if the initiative is adopted. As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

[ZuWo]

Pressure mounts on Johann Schneider-Ammann, one of the seven members of the Federal Council and Economics Minister of Switzerland: the Bernese tax authorities are investigating the Ammann construction group, which is owned by Schneider Ammann's wife. Before his election to the Federal Council, Schneider-Ammann was CEO of the company.
In order to save on taxes the Ammann Group had placed several hundreds of millions of dollars in assets in Jersey and Luxembourg until 2008. In 2009, a year before Ammann's election to the Federal Council, all the money was transferred to Switzerland.

At least for now he can still try to ignore and sit out the issue because the left-wing parties are the only ones to call for his resignation. However, should the Bernese tax authorities reveal that the Ammann Group broke the law under the leadership of Schneider-Ammann he will probably be forced to resign. If he has to resign, both the SVP and the Greens can be expected to field a candidate for his seat.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/Tax_authorities_eye_minister_s_family_firm_.html?cid=37847114

[njwes]

ZuWo out of curiosity, whereabouts in Switzerland do you live and what are your opinions on these referenda?

Understand if you'd rather not say to keep everything, ya know, professional

[ZuWo]

ZuWo out of curiosity, whereabouts in Switzerland do you live and what are your opinions on these referenda?

Understand if you'd rather not say to keep everything, ya know, professional

Zurich, the biggest city in Switzerland.

I have voted "yes" on the mass immigration and the abortion initiative and "no" on the railway infrastructure bill.

[ZuWo]

Due to a number of regional elections and controversial initiatives and referenda many municipalities started counting votes yesterday. I had a shift as poll worker yesterday afternoon and will have another one later today. Turnout is definitely unusually high - 55% or more can be expected.

[Tender Branson]

High turnout is usually good news for the "against mass immigration" side.

Polls are closing in about 30 minutes, right ?

I predict:

55-45 against mass immigration (big swing towards this side in the final weeks)

59-41 abortion should remain publicly funded (about what the polls said)

60-40 in favor of the rail initiative (about what the polls said)

[ZuWo]

High turnout is usually good news for the "against mass immigration" side.

Polls are closing in about 30 minutes, right ?

I predict:

55-45 against mass immigration (big swing towards this side in the final weeks)

59-41 abortion should remain publicly funded (about what the polls said)

60-40 in favor of the rail initiative (about what the polls said)

Your estimates seem to be quite accurate: The first 80 municipalities to report (Kanton Aargau, a couple percentage points more conservative than the Swiss average) show the following results:

57% yes to the SVP-initiative against mass immigration
62% no to the initiative to end public funding of abortions
53% to the railway initiative

http://www.aargauerzeitung.ch/aargau/kanton-aargau/erste-stimmen-sind-ausgezaehlt-ja-mehrheit-fuer-svp-initiative-127651571

[Tender Branson]

Not bad results if true ...

[ZuWo]

The first projection for the entire Kanton Zürich released by the Department of Statistics of Zurich looks as follows:

54% no to the mass immigration initiative

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/urnengang.html

This is going to be very close.

[Tender Branson]

The first projection for the entire Kanton Zürich released by the Department of Statistics of Zurich looks as follows:

54% no to the mass immigration initiative

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/urnengang.html

This is going to be very close.

Interesting ...

Of those counted, 57% are Yes.

But the projection for all is only 46% Yes.

Will Zurich City have such a big impact ?

[ZuWo]

The first projection for the entire Kanton Zürich released by the Department of Statistics of Zurich looks as follows:

54% no to the mass immigration initiative

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/urnengang.html

This is going to be very close.

Interesting ...

Of those counted, 57% are Yes.

But the projection for all is only 46% Yes.

Will Zurich City have such a big impact ?

The bigger towns and Zurich City are still missing in the count. Since the urban regions are quite populous and considerably more left-wing than the rest of the canton this will indeed impact the final result quite a bit.
It is possible that the unusually high turnout rate mostly benefits the right, which could turn this prediction upside down, though.

[Tender Branson]

Any trends from other cantons ?

[ZuWo]

A large share of the vote has been counted in Wallis and the results so far are 49% yes and 51% no to the mass immigration initiative:

http://www.vs.ch/Navig/navig.asp?MenuID=4341

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, this seems to become really tight Switzerland-wide.

[ZuWo]

There seems to be a strong no-trend in Vaud, which is not very surprising:

http://www.elections.vd.ch/votelec/results.html?scrutin=CHVO20140209

Mass immigration initiative:

39% yes, 61% no with 281 of 320 precincts reporting.

[Tender Branson]

Do you know what the initiative with the most turnout was so far in Swiss history ?

Currently about 58-60% turnout in Zürich and Wallis.