Thought Sestak would be doing better with regard to the primary. But it is early and I don't know, he could be one of those whose perceived aloofness might sting him a little. But he seems to have principles, and I hope he's the nominee. Of course I need to educate myself about Schwartz - I know next to nothing about her, she may be fine too.
I can't see how Corbett hangs on, really. I'm usually not optimistic, but he is so completely in the tank that if he hangs on, that "under 50% rule" can be tossed in the garbage.
It's really better described as the "under 44% rule". Governing and legislating rarely build consensus that one deserves re-election as does campaigning. When not campaigning an incumbent is vulnerable to every cheap shot from opponents and hostile pundits. But once the campaigning begins the challenger rarely gets to take a scatter-shot approach at the incumbent -- and has to show himself fit for the job.
An incumbent Governor or Senator usually gains about 6% from an approval rating at the start of campaign season to the final vote share whether his approval rating begins just below 40% or whether it is around 70%. An incumbent with an approval rating of 44% has a roughly-even chance of winning re-election and usually shows why he was elected to begin with. Someone with an approval rating below 44% usually shows that voting for him was a mistake -- and loses. There's little empirical evidence for pols whose approval ratings much below 40%; they rarely run for re-election.
Corbett is doing badly. Run on a promise of 'reform' and have a hidden agenda that proves unpopular, and the incumbent loses. Low approval ratings apply to the incompetent and corrupt, too.
