Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

2004-style?

He's a culture warrior and Bush-era Republican. It's been a while since Republican standard bearers put culture issues on the front burner like he has, and those days aren't combing back.

Yes, he was a Republican during the Bush era   And I don't see where he's campaigning as a culture warrior. 

[Aliens]

Unfortunately, WDBJ Channel 7 is not letting Sarvis join the final debate because his RCP polling average is at 9.4% instead of the 10% needed.  Even if he was included, I don't think he would take too many votes away the Republican side compared to the Democrats because both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are subpar candidates.

[Miles]

Ron Paul is endorsing Cuccinelli; I guess that doesn't bode well for Sarvis.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Rand's ambition takes precedence over Ron's principles. He likely would've made a 3rd party run in 2012 if not for Rand as well.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Looks like Rand's ambition takes precedence over Ron's principles. He likely would've made a 3rd party run in 2012 if not for Rand as well.

It is much more strategic for the liberty movement to go with Rand in 2016. Keep in mind, the Ron Paul generation is entering politics. Many young political staffers, and future State Party chairs and committee members are being born. The GOP will be the party of Paulism in the near future, once we expunge the Tea Party-neoconservative elements.

In the end, this is the right decision, though I still fantasize about a Paul/Johnson run in 2012.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If I had to guess:
Governor-TOSSUP: this one could go either way and it will depend on how big turnout is in the Old Dominion: if it's low, it helps Cuccinelli, but if it's high: it helps McAuliffe.

Lieutenant Governor-OPEN: Likely Democratic pick-up: Northam beats Jackson, 57-40.

State Attorney General-Too close to call, but I'll take my chances with GOP hold here.

[Gass3268]

If I had to guess:
Governor-TOSSUP: this one could go either way and it will depend on how big turnout is in the Old Dominion: if it's low, it helps Cuccinelli, but if it's high: it helps McAuliffe.

Lieutenant Governor-OPEN: Likely Democratic pick-up: Northam beats Jackson, 57-40.

State Attorney General-Too close to call, but I'll take my chances with GOP hold here.

Cuccinelli hasn't been leading a poll in 3 months and it was from the awful Roanoke College poll. Also he's pulled advertisements down and the party has pulled back its money support. This is practically over.

[Miles]

Ouch.

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[njwes]

What's so hackish about what I said? These were the days when anti-gay and anti-muslim bigotry was almost a prerequisite for any self-respecting candidate.

In fairness, I know many, many Democrats who have 0 problem with anti-Muslim sentiment/bigotry.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only real question is how much of Sarvis' poll support comes from people who don't like either McAuliffe or Cuccinelli but still intend to vote for one of those two when their vote counts.  I suspect at least half, as usual for a libertarian, so I have McAuliffe ≥50% in my prediction.

[Miles]

The Richmond Times Dispatch's non-endorsement seems to hurt Cuccinnelli the most:

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[Fuzzy Bear]

I normally don't believe polls are wrong, but in this race, I think that Cuccinelli will pull off a huge upset.

If he were running against anyone else, I would not say this, but McAuliffe is such a consensus sleazebag that I've got to think that a number of folks in the middle will gag on him.  Virginia has some moderate Republicans, and they will, in the end, stick with Cuccinelli, only because McAuliffe is a sleazeball. 

McAuliffe is a sleazeball to the point where it is hard to imagine how he will effectively govern.  He will never be able to garner popularity to put forth his own legislative program.  He's damaged goods before he's even elected.  And there's 2 weeks to bring people to see this.  Cuccinelli's baggage is ideological to a point, but McAuliffe's is personal, and it's there for good.

[Zioneer]

I normally don't believe polls are wrong, but in this race, I think that Cuccinelli will pull off a huge upset.

If he were running against anyone else, I would not say this, but McAuliffe is such a consensus sleazebag that I've got to think that a number of folks in the middle will gag on him.  Virginia has some moderate Republicans, and they will, in the end, stick with Cuccinelli, only because McAuliffe is a sleazeball. 

McAuliffe is a sleazeball to the point where it is hard to imagine how he will effectively govern.  He will never be able to garner popularity to put forth his own legislative program.  He's damaged goods before he's even elected.  And there's 2 weeks to bring people to see this.  Cuccinelli's baggage is ideological to a point, but McAuliffe's is personal, and it's there for good.

And Cuccinelli doesn't have personal baggage? Doesn't he have the same kind of corruption problems that McDonnell has?

[DINGO Joe]

I normally don't believe polls are wrong, but in this race, I think that Cuccinelli will pull off a huge upset.

If he were running against anyone else, I would not say this, but McAuliffe is such a consensus sleazebag that I've got to think that a number of folks in the middle will gag on him.  Virginia has some moderate Republicans, and they will, in the end, stick with Cuccinelli, only because McAuliffe is a sleazeball. 

McAuliffe is a sleazeball to the point where it is hard to imagine how he will effectively govern.  He will never be able to garner popularity to put forth his own legislative program.  He's damaged goods before he's even elected.  And there's 2 weeks to bring people to see this.  Cuccinelli's baggage is ideological to a point, but McAuliffe's is personal, and it's there for good.

And Cuccinelli doesn't have personal baggage? Doesn't he have the same kind of corruption problems that McDonnell has?

Yeah, he's taken $18,000 in "gifts" from the same company, Star Scientific, that has McDonnell's butt in a sling.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/cuccinelli-discloses-more-gifts-from-star-scientific-ceo/article_9b2bcfc8-ed4c-574c-9746-3fdd387e7ec3.html

And there's this:

http://www.baconsrebellion.com/2013/06/cuccinelli-penguins-and-natural-gas.html

http://www.tricities.com/news/local/article_24c925c8-09f9-11e3-935a-0019bb30f31a.html

Lots of reasons to dislike Cooch.  Given all the scandals, it is ironic that McAuliffe will actually be a reformer.

[Miles]

PPP has McAuliffe up 57-39 with early voters. Sarvis is only getting 3%.

[windjammer]

Good news!

[DINGO Joe]

New Rasmussen Poll

McAuliffe ahead 50-33-8.   Not a typo

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2013/virginia/election_2013_virginia_governor

[windjammer]

Will the democrats gain the lower house if the margin is big?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Will the democrats gain the lower house if the margin is big?

Not a chance. They are currently almost in super-minority.

[windjammer]

At least, I hope the Pubs will lose their supermajority!

[windjammer]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112256.0

Well, I guess it was done before redistricting. But Northam's district seems to be more a "toss up district" than a "lean rep district". Tilt rep maybe.

[Mr.Phips]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112256.0

Well, I guess it was done before redistricting. But Northam's district seems to be more a "toss up district" than a "lean rep district". Tilt rep maybe.

It has a good Dem lean to it after redistricting.  Obama and Kaine both got about 58% and even the statewide Dem candidates who were getting their brains beaten in statewide in 2009 came close to winning here (the lt. Gov candidate actually won it while losing statewide by 14 points).

[windjammer]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112256.0

Well, I guess it was done before redistricting. But Northam's district seems to be more a "toss up district" than a "lean rep district". Tilt rep maybe.

It has a good Dem lean to it after redistricting.  Obama and Kaine both got about 58% and even the statewide Dem candidates who were getting their brains beaten in statewide in 2009 came close to winning here (the lt. Gov candidate actually won it while losing statewide by 14 points).

Have you the new PVI for the virginia state senate please?

[Mr.Phips]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=112256.0

Well, I guess it was done before redistricting. But Northam's district seems to be more a "toss up district" than a "lean rep district". Tilt rep maybe.

It has a good Dem lean to it after redistricting.  Obama and Kaine both got about 58% and even the statewide Dem candidates who were getting their brains beaten in statewide in 2009 came close to winning here (the lt. Gov candidate actually won it while losing statewide by 14 points).

Have you the new PVI for the virginia state senate please?

SD-01:  D+6
SD-02:  D+19
SD-03:  R+13
SD-04:  R+11
SD-05:  D+23
SD-06:  D+6
SD-07:  R+2
SD-08:  R+5
SD-09:  D+21
SD-10:  EVEN
SD-11:  R+9
SD-12:  R+7
SD-13:  R+5
SD-14:  R+10
SD-15:  R+12
SD-16:  D+18
SD-17:  R+2
SD-18:  D+15
SD-19:  R+13
SD-20:  R+3
SD-21:  D+5
SD-22:  R+6
SD-23:  R+18
SD-24:  R+16
SD-25:  D+8
SD-26:  R+13
SD-27:  R+11
SD-28:  R+9
SD-29:  D+8
SD-30:  D+16
SD-31:  D+12
SD-32:  D+12
SD-33:  D+6
SD-34:  D+7
SD-35:  D+17
SD-36:  D+12
SD-37:  D+7
SD-38:  R+12
SD-39:  D+7
SD-40:  R+20

Democrats amazingly hold the 38th in coal country, but the next reddest they hold is D+5.

[windjammer]

Thank you!