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Author Topic: Female Democrat Senator prospect, non-Hillary  (Read 2578 times)
AuH2O
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« on: February 20, 2005, 06:15:35 pm »

I'm not really sure if I buy her as a legitimate option for Democrats, but Maria Cantwell is kind of interesting, at least as much as a woman Senator from Washington state can be. Make no mistake, being female is not especially good if you want to be President, and WA is already Democratic (no Electoral help).

But, on the other hand, she has executive business experience and plenty of money to make herself a factor in the primaries. Representing Washington, she has a good record on military spending because of all the defense companies located there.

Maybe she's more of a Veep prospect if anything at all, I'm not all that familiar with her. Thoughts welcome.
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Snowe08
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2005, 06:32:47 pm »

I think that America is ready for a female President - I just don't think America is ready for a President Hillary Clinton. It has to be the right female candidate, but I don't think it's impossible, unthinkable or undesirable.
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nick
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2005, 07:00:23 pm »

I like Blanche Lincoln, but Im not sure if she is Presidential material.
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Jake
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2005, 07:06:01 pm »

If a female will be elected, Veep or President, it will be Blanche Lincoln.  Cantwell will have 8 years of undistinguished senate service.
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2005, 10:50:29 pm »

Conservative - Landreui
Liberal - Boxer
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ian
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2005, 11:27:10 pm »

She is one of the Repubs' biggest incumbent targets in 2006.
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Leif Ericson
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2005, 12:53:32 am »

As a governor, Jennifer Granholm would be great.

Too bad she can't run.
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jfern
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2005, 01:10:35 am »

She is one of the Repubs' biggest incumbent targets in 2006.

Good, I hope they waste a lot of money on that race.
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PADem
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2005, 02:33:16 am »

I think Snowe, Lincoln would both have a chance in the General, although I doubt with the direction the GOP is moving that Snowe would have a snowflakes chance in hell of getting the GOP nod.

She's not a senator, but what about Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. She's a Bayh/Warner style Democrat which should be the kind we nominate, a southerner, and relatively popular.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2005, 07:25:36 am »

I think Snowe, Lincoln would both have a chance in the General, although I doubt with the direction the GOP is moving that Snowe would have a snowflakes chance in hell of getting the GOP nod.

She's not a senator, but what about Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. She's a Bayh/Warner style Democrat which should be the kind we nominate, a southerner, and relatively popular.

A woman who is a moderate governor has the best chance of being elected President.  Granholm can't run because she was born in Canada, so that leave Sebilius (as well as Napolitano from Arizona).  Let's see how her record is as governor, and whether she has presdential ambitions.

I'd love to see the Democrats run Barbara Boxer.  She's my favorite female Democratic senator (other than Madame Hildebeast Clinton, of course).
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AuH2O
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2005, 07:27:08 am »

Napolitano and Selibius have to be reelected first. Two words: Hayworth, Tiahrt. Both fine Presidential prospects in their own right, by the way.
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Snowe08
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2005, 08:28:20 am »

I think Snowe, Lincoln would both have a chance in the General, although I doubt with the direction the GOP is moving that Snowe would have a snowflakes chance in hell of getting the GOP nod.
I tend to agree that the current direction of the GOP is much more towards the right than the middle, but I'd note two things about Sen. Snowe running in the primary:

Firstly, I do not believe that trying and losing is a perjorative; I would urge Sen. Snowe to run even if I belived that she had no chance. A candidate can have a major and important impact on the tone of the debate even if they lose the nomination. The moderate wing of the party is crying out for a candidate who can engagingly articulate their views to a broad range of the public, and Sen. Snowe is very well qualified to do exactly this.

Secondly, however, I think that the nature of the 2008 GOP primary will make its outcome significantly complex, which I believe moves the possibility of Sen. Snowe securing the nomination ever so slightly towards this side of possible, based on reasoning as follows.

As I see it, the 2004 Democratic Primary was essentially the campaign to beat Bush. Voters, it seemed, wanted above all else a viable candidate to beat Bush, which immediately narrowed their voting choice in an already fairly small field of candidates. In order to ensure the victory of Kerry, all the Democratic establishment had to do was to destroy the insurgent, Howard Dean, and the passage of their preferred candidate was assured.

Now, I believe that the 2008 GOP primary will be a very different affair. Unlike the Democrats in 2004, the Republicans in 2008, I suspect, will be fairly confident of victory, which changes the psychology of choosing a candidate. The lack of a percieved successor (more on this in a moment) will also encourage a wide field of candidates, as the many, many competing voices in the GOP attempt to take the reigns of the party after the expiry of the President's time in office. I believe that there is a confluence of events here: a wide field of candidates offering differing visions of the GOP's future to voters who feel emboldened by their surety in victory to pick a candidate based primarily on the closeness of that candidate's views to their own, rather than that candidate's ability to beat (insert name of preferred Democrat candidate here).

Of course, despite the trumpeting of a "lack of percieved successor" to President Bush, there establishment will have a candidate, and in my view, that candidate will be Gov. Frist of Tennessee. Senator Frist has already expressed his lack of inclination to seek re-election to the Senate in 2006, and Tennessee has a gubernatorial election in 2006. Of 17 men elected to the Presidency in the 20th Century, only two came directly from the Congress; Frist knows that the public tend to elect Governors, and so I believe he will seek to "switch streams in mid-horse", and contend the 2008 GOP primary as Governor of Tennessee. The filing deadline for that election is April 2006, so we'll see if I'm right at that point. Wink

The power of the establishment to get its way is substantial, no-one will deny that; in the 2004 primary, the Democrat establishment did everything it could to obliterate Howard Dean as a serious contender against Bush, and the desire of the voters to beat Bush did the rest. 2008 will be different; if I'm right, and the field is wide, to secure the passage of their candidate, it will not be enough for the Republican establishment to simply destroy "the other candidate". The factors mentioned above - a wide field of candidates, voters who feel emboldened to pick a candidate based primarily on the closeness of that candidate's views to their own - make the outcome of each state primary considerably more complex and volatile; it's much harder to rig an election like that.

None of this makes the 2008 environment inherently disposed to a Snowe win - but it does render it possible, and possible we can work with.


Interesting to see people mentioning Janet Napolitano, I've heard a couple of people suggest that she might be rather a good candidate.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2005, 09:27:45 am »

What about Governor Kathleen Blanco of Louisiana?  Like Senator Landrieu, she's also on the conservative wing of the Party.  Probably not a good choice for the top of the ticket as she could split the party, but maybe an option for Veep?
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bgwah
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« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2005, 12:22:27 am »

First Washingtonian President, I like it!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2005, 04:03:02 am »

Lincoln would do well... moderate, lot's of appeal to rural voters etc. etc.
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Notre Dame rules!
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« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2005, 07:28:39 pm »

The only female Senator that I can see voting for at this time would be Liddy Dole, though she's a bit too moderate for my taste.
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Notre Dame rules!
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« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2005, 09:06:33 pm »

True, but with the Dems count, recount, find, and manufacture votes in King County, she would carry WA comfortably.
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bgwah
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« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2005, 09:10:10 pm »

I'd like to see the Dems nominate Sen. Patty Murray, (Washington), you know, "mother in sneakers?" for Prez.
That way, the GOP candidate would likely win a 49 state sweep in '08. 

Comon, she'd win at least 10 states. Smiley
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Notre Dame rules!
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« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2005, 09:14:19 pm »

maybe nine states.  She's really pretty weak, both as a Senator and as a potential Presidential candidate.
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bgwah
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« Reply #19 on: February 23, 2005, 09:56:41 pm »
« Edited: February 23, 2005, 09:58:52 pm by Jesus »

I'd like to see the Dems nominate Sen. Patty Murray, (Washington), you know, "mother in sneakers?" for Prez.
That way, the GOP candidate would likely win a 49 state sweep in '08. 

Comon, she'd win at least 10 states. Smiley

OK, maybe I was a bit hard on Patty.  But I hardly think she would win 10 states.  I'd say 4 max.  As pointed out by Notre Dame Rules, Washington state Dems know how to create votes, that's for sure.  I'll  go out on a limb and call Washington, Vermont, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, as well as DC of course, for Murray. 

She won with a comfortable margin, the cheating question surrounds Gregoire and to a much lesser extent Cantwell.

Oregon always votes the same way as Washington, so I think she'd at least win that too. She'd probably win New York, Maryland, Hawaii and probaby California, Delaware, Illinois, and maybe Minnesota just because it always manages to vote Democrat.

Anyway, this thread is about Cantwell. Smiley
I think she would do much better than Murray. I say she'll win by at least 10% in 2006, maybe 5% if Dino decides to run against her.
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