Bulgaria 2013

[politicus]

While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time.

Which party was that, out of curiosity?

Lider, the personal party of Hristo Kovachki, owner of various energy-related businesses. The core voters of his party were the workers in his plants or mines, by all accounts under threats. He won a municipality, where he controlled a large coal mine, the main employer there.

How did he pull that of? (assuming secret ballots) Was the workers told they would be fired if he didnt get a certain percentage?

[Tender Branson]

Polling place "shuttle service" in Bulgaria:



(I often forget how poor most parts of this country (and in Romania) still are ...)

[GMantis]

While no one can really hope to get anything from their vote (except those selling theirs, of course), in some cases local oligarchs, who have practically taken over government in certain areas, have pressured their employees into voting for them (or for parties they support). While this euphemistically called "company vote" doesn't appear in polls, it nearly managed to get a political party in parliament last time around and according to some estimates could reach up to 200,000 votes this time.

Which party was that, out of curiosity?

Lider, the personal party of Hristo Kovachki, owner of various energy-related businesses. The core voters of his party were the workers in his plants or mines, by all accounts under threats. He won a municipality, where he controlled a large coal mine, the main employer there.

How did he pull that of? (assuming secret ballots) Was the workers told they would be fired if he didnt get a certain percentage?

Perhaps, or manipulation at the ballot stations located in those areas where he controlled the local economy.

Polling place "shuttle service" in Bulgaria:



(I often forget how poor most parts of this country (and in Romania) still are ...)

Most people aren't that poor, though most Gypsies (like those in the picture) certainly are.

[Tender Branson]

Speaking of Romas (isn't gypsies a politically incorrect name these days, like ni**er ? Even though like 90% of people here in Austria refer to them as "Zigeuner" as well, and not as Roma ... ):

What are the parties attitudes and policies towards this population group (I guess Ataka is the most anti-Roma, but who wants to help them find jobs etc. ?)

...

Also: GMantis, does this have anything to do with election results ?

http://novinite.bg/articles/37433/Klasaciya-na-bukmejkarite-za-naj-populyarnite-chisla-ot-konnite-sastezaniya-na-hipodroma-v-Bankya-kam-1830-ch

[Tender Branson]

The Bulgarian Embassy in London is right next to my house and at the moment there's a massive queue outside, but it's moving so slowly it looks as if no-one is even entering the building. Perhaps the fact that people are lining up from 2 completely different positions on each side of the building doesn't help.

Km-long Line Reported at Bulgarian Voting Poll in London



A line, over one kilometer long, has formed Sunday in London at the voting section for Bulgaria's early general elections, according to outraged Bulgarian expats.

A number of them have posted pictures on Facebook to illustrate the chaos and the frustration.

Actually, there are two lines – one for people who have registered to vote in advance and one for those who must fill a declaration on the spot. The waiting time for the first group is reported as 1 hour, and for the second – over 2.5 hours.

Many expat voters are further confused as, over lack of directions, they have ended in the wrong line.

They write on social networks that the tensions are mounting, and many have given up on the right to cast a ballot and have left.

The unprecedented line was provoked by the fact that the number of voting polls for Bulgarians in England was reduced to just 2 – one at the Bulgarian Embassy in London, and one in Tottenham.

There is also a line of 150 Bulgarians wishing to cast a ballot at the Embassy in Vienna. They are waiting in a pouring rain. 980 Bulgarians in Austria have already voted.

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=150302

...

Yeah, I guess it's pretty bad when you have only 1 embassy for tens of thousands of expat voters in those cities, when usually there is 1 precinct for every 500-1000 voters in the home country ...

[GMantis]

Speaking of Romas (isn't gypsies a politically incorrect name these days, like ni**er ? Even though like 90% of people here in Austria refer to them as "Zigeuner" as well, and not as Roma ... ):

Not really. To an extent I'm influenced by the usual Bulgarian term (tsigani, which has the same etymology as the German word), which are used by the vast majority of people here as well. And at least here there are much worse words than Gypsy, which would be the equivalent of  ni**er. Also, the word Roma, apart from being "politically correct" (I mean by this a word that is mean to change the meaning of a subject just by renaming) and factually incorrect (only some Gypsies use this term), is also essentially a racist word, as it means "human" (implying that all others are not human).

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Most parties have declared that they want to help them integrate in Bulgarian society. In reality, all of them prefer to just leave the Gypsies them alone and do little else except providing welfare payments. Attempts to help them with matters that are actually important, most notably education, have been patchy at best.

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Yes, the numbers before the percentages are the party numbers, as listed on the ballot. In this case, starting from the top, they are: GERB, BSP, MRF, Ataka, DBG, Center - Freedom and Dignity (a coalition which includes the former King's party), DSB, UDF, RZS and NFSB.

[Tender Branson]

It looks like the main reason for the mile-long wait in London and other Bulgarian embassies around the globe is that turnout there picked up SIGNIFICANTLY in the afternoon for some reason and the embassy folks have to handle a great deal of same-day-registration as well, because many people in the lines did not pre-register and now the embassy-folks have to register them when they want to cast the ballot, which requires some bureaucratic stuff incl. signatures and so on ...

[minionofmidas]

All the Bulgarian parties want the Roma to find work.

In Western Europe.



(I use Roma and Zigeuner - and "Zico" - interchangeably in daily life.)


One main reason for the long lines is simply the increase in expat population.

[GMantis]

Yeah, I guess it's pretty bad when you have only 1 embassy for tens of thousands of expat voters in those cities, when usually there is 1 precinct for every 500-1000 voters in the home country ...

Precincts abroad are made by request and usually there are indeed only up to 500 wanting to vote. In Turkey, where a lot more people want to vote, there are also many more precincts. In this case it seems that many Bulgarians have suddenly decided to vote.

[GMantis]

It looks like the main reason for the mile-long wait in London and other Bulgarian embassies around the globe is that turnout there picked up SIGNIFICANTLY in the afternoon for some reason and the embassy folks have to handle a great deal of same-day-registration as well, because many people in the lines did not pre-register and now the embassy-folks have to register them when they want to cast the ballot, which requires some bureaucratic stuff incl. signatures and so on ...

So my theory seems to be correct. But we'll have to find out which of the two suggestions is correct

All the Bulgarian parties want the Roma to find work.

In Western Europe.



(I use Roma and Zigeuner - and "Zico" - interchangeably in daily life.)

I won't deny that most Bulgarians response to criticism by the EU on the treatment of Gypsies is "Why don't you try to integrate them?". And judging from the way France behaved or how Bulgaria and Romania's membership Shengen membership is endlessly held up, most Europeans don't seem to want to integrate them either...

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Partly that, but also due to today's events.

[Tender Branson]

All the Bulgarian parties want the Roma to find work.

In Western Europe.

Which they are mostly not doing either if they get here ...

In most cases these poor people are pushed into trucks by mafia-like organisations and people traders and transported to Austrian/German cities where they "beg" for money by looking disabled (but when the day is over they walk away like a healthy person etc.), then they go to some empty house/factory building that looks like a trashcan and the next day they are transported by their "supervisors" back to the city center again and the thing starts again ... And the local authorities/police can't do much about it, they can just issue warnings that they will be arrested the next time they encounter them at this property, but can't actually deport them because they are EU citizens. And their puppet masters are actually in Romania/Bulgaria and get most of the money they "beg". A vicious circle in which these poor people are only tools for their puppet masters that need to be jailed.

[minionofmidas]

Nyes. That exists, of course, but then it has for twenty years (and not only to beg, either - also although the Roma con artists are primarily from Slovakia, not Romania). Legal Roma immigrants from Romania and Bulgaria, come to stay and if possible to work, are much the more recent phenomenon, and if not quite as visible easily outnumber the others by now. Not that the distinction can always be drawn neatly, of course. And not that every German politician is capable of imagining the need to...

This might amuse you, Gmantis... A Titanic-Magazin "letter to the readers" from last month addressed to the federal minister of the interior.

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[GMantis]

All the Bulgarian parties want the Roma to find work.

In Western Europe.

Which they are mostly not doing either if they get here ...

In most cases these poor people are pushed into trucks by mafia-like organisations and people traders and transported to Austrian/German cities where they "beg" for money by looking disabled (but when the day is over they walk away like a healthy person etc.), then they go to some empty house/factory building that looks like a trashcan and the next day they are transported by their "supervisors" back to the city center again and the thing starts again ... And the local authorities/police can't do much about it, they can just issue warnings that they will be arrested the next time they encounter them at this property, but can't actually deport them because they are EU citizens. And their puppet masters are actually in Romania/Bulgaria and get most of the money they "beg". A vicious circle in which these poor people are only tools for their puppet masters that need to be jailed.

Most of the "puppet masters" are Gypsies as well, of course.

[minionofmidas]

today's events

?

[GMantis]

today's events

?

Hundreds of thousands extra ballots, made by a GERB local councilor, found; BSP leading in some exit polls; things like that.

[minionofmidas]

today's events

?

Hundreds of thousands extra ballots, made by a GERB local councilor, found; BSP leading in some exit polls; things like that.

Ah yeah, that were the two things I was already aware of (after realizing how tall the number of extra ballots was; that somehow escaped me the first time I read it.)

You speak German IIRC; this is how your country gets reported on here:
http://www.fr-online.de/politik/bulgarien-wo-die-sonne-vom-himmel-faellt,1472596,22704722.html

[Tender Branson]

Nyes. That exists, of course, but then it has for twenty years (and not only to beg, either - also although the Roma con artists are primarily from Slovakia, not Romania). Legal Roma immigrants from Romania and Bulgaria, come to stay and if possible to work, are much the more recent phenomenon, and if not quite as visible easily outnumber the others by now. Not that the distinction can always be drawn neatly, of course. And not that every German politician is capable of imagining the need to...

This might amuse you, Gmantis... A Titanic-Magazin "letter to the readers" from last month addressed to the federal minister of the interior.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It seems at least here there is a big focus on the begging Romas who are camping in empty houses and factories and produce a lot of trash that makes the heads of the orderly Austrians who live nearby explode:

http://kurier.at/politik/betteln-in-salzburg-zwischen-mitleid-und-abscheu/809.310

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2536515

While most other Bulgarians/Romanians/Slovaks - those who are not Romas - actually work in the gastro or care industry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How did he pull that of? (assuming secret ballots) Was the workers told they would be fired if he didnt get a certain percentage?

Labour candidates in certain rural areas in the UK had to include reminders on their leaflets that the ballot was indeed secret as late as the 1960s.

[Tender Branson]

Back to the main topic:

EXIT POLLS

29-33% GERB
25-28% Socialists
  9-12% Turkish Party
    7-9% Ataka
    3-4% Kuneva Party

4% is the treshold.

[GMantis]

More exact results by the exit polls (deputies in parenthesis):

                           Gallup                 Alpha Research             MBMD                    Sova Haris
GERB                  30.3% (96)         31% (97)                       31.4% (98)            31% (101)      
BSP                    27% (86)            27.1% (85)                     26.2% (81)            25.3% (82)  
MRF                    10.7% (34)         11.05% (35)                   11.5% (36)           10.3% (33)
Ataka                  7.5% (24)           7.5% (23)                      8.2% (25)              7.3% (24)

DBG and DSB are the closest to the 4% threshold.                    

[Tender Branson]

GMantis, what do you think is a likely coalition if only the 4 parties manage to stay above 4% ?

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

[GMantis]

You speak German IIRC; this is how your country gets reported on here:
http://www.fr-online.de/politik/bulgarien-wo-die-sonne-vom-himmel-faellt,1472596,22704722.html

Interesting point of view. I have to admit that I wasn't aware that old people are from cities to the countryside, perhaps because in statistics they're balanced by all the Gypsies moving in the other direction.

[GMantis]

GMantis, what do you think is a likely coalition if only the 4 parties manage to stay above 4% ?

In decreasing order of likelihood:
GERB-MRF
BSP-MRF (lower because they will likely not to reach 121)
GERB-Ataka



BSP-MRF-Ataka (or more correctly a minority government. tacitly supported by MRF and Ataka)














GERB-BSP
But even GERB-MRF looks dubious at the moment. It seems quite possible that there will be new elections soon...

[GMantis]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.