Has Saudi Oil Peaked?

[Frodo]

Expert says Saudi oil may have peaked
By Adam Porter

Sunday 20 February 2005, 10:58 Makka Time, 7:58 GMT 

As oil stubbornly refuses to fall below $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction.

Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil".

The subject of peak oil, the point at which the world's finite supply of oil begins to decline, is a hot topic in the industry.

Arguments are commonplace over whether it will happen at all, when it will happen or whether it has already happened. Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, believes it "is the world's number one problem, far more serious than global warming".

Saudi oil peaking?

Speaking exclusively to Aljazeera, Simmons came out with a statement that, if proven true over time, could herald by far the biggest energy crisis mankind has known.

"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/80C89E7E-1DE9-42BC-920B-91E5850FB067.htm

[Richard]

Experts have said that in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and now the 2000s.  Gee.  What a surprise.

[Frodo]

Experts have said that in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and now the 2000s.  Gee.  What a surprise.

What the hell are you mumbling about? experts have been saying over the past several decades that peak oil would occur during the early part of the 21st century -and it looks as if they are being proved right.  it isn't that hard to understand....

[Richard]

Experts have said that in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and now the 2000s.  Gee.  What a surprise.

What the hell are you mumbling about? experts have been saying over the past several decades that peak oil would occur during the early part of the 21st century -and it looks as if they are being proved right.  it isn't that hard to understand....

No, they've always said oil will peak "now" or "soon."  It hasn't happened, nor is it going to happen for at least 100 years.  Basic geological engineering 101.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Experts have said that in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and now the 2000s.  Gee.  What a surprise.

What the hell are you mumbling about? experts have been saying over the past several decades that peak oil would occur during the early part of the 21st century -and it looks as if they are being proved right.  it isn't that hard to understand....

No, they've always said oil will peak "now" or "soon."  It hasn't happened, nor is it going to happen for at least 100 years.  Basic geological engineering 101.

WTF are you talking about?

[The Duke]

You know this story is bogus because they mention only two specific countries, and one of them is mentioned only in speculative terms.

The do not mention the two indicators that will tell you if peak oil has been passed: Global production, and new field finds.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Global oil discovery peaked in 1962.
US oil production peaked in 1970.

[The Duke]

Global oil discovery peaked in 1962.
US oil production peaked in 1970.

And world production?  Nice job bringing in partial and distorted information that serves only to distract and mislead!

[phk]

n 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted the peak of oil production would take place in the early 1970s for the continental United States. In 1971, he predicted, using high and low estimates of global oil reserve data available to him at the time, that global oil production would peak between 1995 and 2000. This peak has not occurred, and the implications for the model are controversial. Some petroleum economists, such as Michael Lynch, argue that the Hubbert model is unapplicable globally. Others, such as Colin Campbell, argue that the Hubbert model is fundamentally correct, and that the world faces the start of oil depletion between 2004 and 2015 -- potentially leading to a major global crisis in the early 21st century.

The United States Geological Survey estimates there are enough petroleum reserves to continue current production rates for at least 50 to 100 years. That is contrasted by Saudi Arabia's top oil industry insider who says the American government's forecast for future oil supply is a "dangerous over-estimate".

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Global oil discovery peaked in 1962.
US oil production peaked in 1970.

And world production?  Nice job bringing in partial and distorted information that serves only to distract and mislead!

The non OPEC or former Soviet union oil has already peaked.
WTF are you trying to argue anyways? A lot of the world's oil production has already peaked, and global production will peak soon.

[The Duke]

Global oil discovery peaked in 1962.
US oil production peaked in 1970.

And world production?  Nice job bringing in partial and distorted information that serves only to distract and mislead!

The non OPEC or former Soviet union oil has already peaked.
WTF are you trying to argue anyways? A lot of the world's oil production has already peaked, and global production will peak soon.

Soviet Union oil has not peaked.  The Caspian and Siberia are just getting revved up.

Interesting that again, you explicitly exclude OPEC from the "who has peaked discussion".  Since almost all the world's oil is in the OPEC nation, its more than a little dishonest top pretend that world production has peaked because non-OPEC production has peaked.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Global oil discovery peaked in 1962.
US oil production peaked in 1970.

And world production?  Nice job bringing in partial and distorted information that serves only to distract and mislead!

The non OPEC or former Soviet union oil has already peaked.
WTF are you trying to argue anyways? A lot of the world's oil production has already peaked, and global production will peak soon.

Soviet Union oil has not peaked.  The Caspian and Siberia are just getting revved up.

Interesting that again, you explicitly exclude OPEC from the "who has peaked discussion".  Since almost all the world's oil is in the OPEC nation, its more than a little dishonest top pretend that world production has peaked because non-OPEC production has peaked.

The world's production hasn't peaked yet, but it will soon.
Anyways, do you have a point, or are you just arguing for arguings sake?

[The Duke]

My point, chicken little, is that the sky isn't falling, and the deceptive efforts by some here to pretend it is falling hurt intellectual discourse.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My point, chicken little, is that the sky isn't falling, and the deceptive efforts by some here to pretend it is falling hurt intellectual discourse.

I didn't pretend we've hit peak oil yet, I said we will.

[opebo]

My point, chicken little, is that the sky isn't falling, and the deceptive efforts by some here to pretend it is falling hurt intellectual discourse.

I didn't pretend we've hit peak oil yet, I said we will.

Well of course I would think anyone would have to admit that this is inevitable.  What disturbs me is that we're wasting all the last drops of oil burning it in cars, when we'll need it one day for various polyesters and the like.