US birth rate fell further in 2012, deaths up

[Tender Branson]

2012:

Births: 3,958,000 (rate: 12.6)
Deaths: 2,539,000 (rate: 8.1)
Nat. increase: 1,419,000 (rate: 4.5)

2011:

Births: 3,961,000 (rate: 12.7)
Deaths: 2,508,000 (rate: 8.0)
Nat. increase: 1,453,000 (rate: 4.7)

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/provisional_tables/Provisional_Table01_2012Dec.pdf

By state:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/provisional_tables/Provisional_Table02_2012Dec.pdf

[angus]

US birth rate fell further in 2012

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/provisional_tables/Provisional_Table01_2012Dec.pdf

see also:   https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=173228.0

[pbrower2a]

Aging population. Figure that many people "self-deported" in the wake of the 2007-2009 economic meltdown and may not return.

The prospects for children don't look so great now. Economic inequality has been intensifying, and the most reliable secret to success in America is now being born into a rich family.

Death rates up? Suicide rates rise in hard times. I figure that in hard times people are less willing to say no to a boss, so industrial accidents also rise.   

[ilikeverin]

how is babby formed

[memphis]

http://www.theonion.com/articles/world-death-rate-holding-steady-at-100-percent,1670/

[DC Al Fine]

Aging population. Figure that many people "self-deported" in the wake of the 2007-2009 economic meltdown and may not return.

The prospects for children don't look so great now. Economic inequality has been intensifying, and the most reliable secret to success in America is now being born into a rich family.

Death rates up? Suicide rates rise in hard times. I figure that in hard times people are less willing to say no to a boss, so industrial accidents also rise.   

Marriage rates and religious adherence are also declining, both of which lead to babies.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Interesting.. births in Wisconsin have fallen below births in Minnesota.

Births in MN rose from 63,000 back in 1994-1995 to 75,000 in 2007.. and has fallen back to ~68,500 each year.

It appears births are on the rise again though from the December figures.

[Blue3]

Aging population. Figure that many people "self-deported" in the wake of the 2007-2009 economic meltdown and may not return.

The prospects for children don't look so great now. Economic inequality has been intensifying, and the most reliable secret to success in America is now being born into a rich family.

Death rates up? Suicide rates rise in hard times. I figure that in hard times people are less willing to say no to a boss, so industrial accidents also rise.   

You can have more babies by being promiscuous and never getting married.
Marriage rates and religious adherence are also declining, both of which lead to babies.

[Indy Texas]

Going from a rate of 12.7 to 12.6 or from 8.0 to 8.1 is mostly statistical noise.

There's a certain seasonality to birth and death rates. Death rates may rise in the short term because of the unusually large number of people (Baby Boomers) reaching the age at which death tends to occur. The boomlet that they themselves spawned - the "Echo Boom" from about 1987-1991 or so - probably won't begin having children in large numbers for another few years. Meanwhile, Gen X-ers were born in the 1970s and early 1980s when birth rates were at a cyclical low - there aren't that many Gen X-ers relative to surrounding cohorts so it shouldn't be surprising that fewer people will produce fewer children.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Going from a rate of 12.7 to 12.6 or from 8.0 to 8.1 is mostly statistical noise.

There's a certain seasonality to birth and death rates. Death rates may rise in the short term because of the unusually large number of people (Baby Boomers) reaching the age at which death tends to occur. The boomlet that they themselves spawned - the "Echo Boom" from about 1987-1991 or so - probably won't begin having children in large numbers for another few years. Meanwhile, Gen X-ers were born in the 1970s and early 1980s when birth rates were at a cyclical low - there aren't that many Gen X-ers relative to surrounding cohorts so it shouldn't be surprising that fewer people will produce fewer children.

Births bottomed out from 1972-1976.. then rose steadily until 1990.  But with immigration, even the age groups born in 1972-1976 are much bigger nowadays.. which is why births never fell back in the 90s like was expected.

The fact is... births *SHOULD* be rising right now as the cohorts for first time mothers is now reaching the mid-1980s.

I expect we'll see a substantial rise in births over the next several years.  Already births were rising quickly from 2000-2007.. and broke the all tiem record for annual births in 2007, beating the previous record from 1957.

This fall off in births isn't nearly as big as the one in the early 70s though... when births fell from 3.75 million in 1970 to 3.15 million in 1973.. right as the early baby boomers were at family starting age.. so fertility rates dropped to 1.7 children per woman from 3.7 only 15 years earlier.

We reached 2.1 in 2007, but have since fallen back to 1.85 or so.  I'd expect to see a rebound back towards 2.0 in the coming years with absolute birth numbers rising to 4.2-4.5 million/year.