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  VA-PPP: Hillary leads McDonnell and Rubio by modest margins
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Author Topic: VA-PPP: Hillary leads McDonnell and Rubio by modest margins  (Read 706 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 31, 2013, 12:01:22 pm »

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Bob McDonnell ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%

...

Do you think Bob McDonnell should run for President in 2016, or not?

He should run ................................................. 17%
He should not.................................................. 57%

Do you think Mark Warner should run for President in 2016, or not?

He should run ................................................. 29%
He should not.................................................. 49%

Who did you vote for President in 2012?

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_53113.pdf
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morgieb
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2013, 06:45:04 pm »

What makes Hillary's PPP numbers so poor compared to the rest?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2013, 12:05:41 pm »

What makes Hillary's PPP numbers so poor compared to the rest?

We don't know that it is poor compared to the rest.  She could genuinely be losing some ground.  Quinnipiac just had a national poll in which her numbers were unimpressive:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174292.0

OTOH, if her numbers are not fading, then PPP is giving us a very interesting electoral map.  She's leading Rubio in Kentucky by 6, but only 4 in Virginia and 4 in Colorado.  That would be a heck of a reversion to 1990s style electoral maps if that holds up.  Could be that with Clinton not having the big comparative advantage among younger voters that Obama has, she doesn't do as well in high population growth states that have trended D under Obama, like CO and VA.

In any case, the trend map that PPP is giving us so far looks like it bears some similarities to the Clinton-Obama differential map from SUSA's 2008 polling:


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2013, 11:57:08 pm »

What makes Hillary's PPP numbers so poor compared to the rest?

We don't know that it is poor compared to the rest.  She could genuinely be losing some ground.  Quinnipiac just had a national poll in which her numbers were unimpressive:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174292.0

OTOH, if her numbers are not fading, then PPP is giving us a very interesting electoral map.  She's leading Rubio in Kentucky by 6, but only 4 in Virginia and 4 in Colorado.  That would be a heck of a reversion to 1990s style electoral maps if that holds up.  Could be that with Clinton not having the big comparative advantage among younger voters that Obama has, she doesn't do as well in high population growth states that have trended D under Obama, like CO and VA.

In any case, the trend map that PPP is giving us so far looks like it bears some similarities to the Clinton-Obama differential map from SUSA's 2008 polling:




One very important thing to remember here is that the "I'm too shy to answer a poll" vote in CO is like 80/20 Dem.  CO has consistently been 3-5% left of the final polling margin in statewide races since 2008.  In VA, the effect is a little less dramatic, but it's still there with both of Obama's margins being underestimated by 2-4%.  Kaine also underpolled dramatically last fall.
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