Canadian federal election - 2015

[Dan the Roman]

Latest ekos numbers have the liberals fading fast.



http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/06/05/the-ekos-poll-mulcair-is-picking-up-all-the-marbles-as-trudeau-fades

So the Tories get to run another NDP scare campaign?

[King of Kensington]

I think they'll have a hard time saying a former Quebec Liberal Cabinet minister is some scary ideologue. 

[Marokai Backbeat]

And besides, this time a strong NDP isn't new. And after an NDP majority government in Alberta? Good luck running a scare campaign a second time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh but they'll try. They'll try.

[VPH]

Man, I'll be glad if the NDP wins. I'm probably moving to Montreal in 1.5 years, so I'll appreciate having an NDP government.

[adma]

What makes the Atlantic so pro-Grit btw?

It was pretty pro-NDP before Trudeau was elected as leader and Harper reformed EI.

Not really, though Alexa made them viable there.  And remember that their most consistent redoubts have been more like singular personal-mandate affairs (Godin, Stoffer, Harris, and maybe to some degree Leslie as an Alexa carryer-onner)

[politicallefty]

Obviously, Canadian polls are horrendously unreliable at this point. If there's one thing I know about Canadian voters, it is that they are extremely volatile until the end. In any case, I do wonder what the Conservatives would have to get to from another government. If the Tories get into the 150-160 range with the Liberals and NDP splitting the opposition, it seems like things get somewhat more complicated. Even with a plurality, I don't think there's any way the Conservatives are able to form a government with less than roughly 140-145 seats.

It would seem like one of the prerequisites to allowing a Conservative Minority would be to require Harper's resignation. (I'm pretty sure virtually all Liberal and NDP voters want Harper out of office.) On the other hand, a leadership election would likely coincide with the failure of that minority to hold confidence. I'm sure the left would love to catch the right off guard, but I can't see them setting themselves up for that position.

Lastly, I've been looking at various federal projections. And, maybe because I've been looking at so many recent projections, I almost cannot believe the Tories losing their monolithic hold on Alberta. Everything I've seen has the Conservatives losing anywhere from 5 up to 9 seats in Alberta. The last time the right lost more than two seats in Alberta was 1993, when the Liberals won four seats in Edmonton. Prior to that, you have to go back to 1968 when the Liberals won four seats in the province (one in Edmonton, one in Calgary, and two in the rest of Alberta). While a breakthrough in Edmonton is conceivable, is anyone really thinking the Conservatives might actually lose their unilateral hold in Calgary and the rest of Alberta?

[RogueBeaver]

Harper will resign if he gets anything less than another majority, he would've done same in 2011. I doubt the opposition parties will be more friendly to Kenney or Moore than they would Harper, and at any rate a leadership process + voter considerations means opposition would want to vote down a Throne Speech as easiest route. If Harper gets a plurality, that is.

[136or142]

Harper will resign if he gets anything less than another majority, he would've done same in 2011. I doubt the opposition parties will be more friendly to Kenney or Moore than they would Harper, and at any rate a leadership process + voter considerations means opposition would want to vote down a Throne Speech as easiest route. If Harper gets a plurality, that is.

Hopefully James Moore will lost to Sarah Norman and no longer be an M.P.

[2952-0-0]

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As an American who knows embarrassing little about Canadian politics what would be the outcome if this was the final result of the federal election? Also what if CPC had 126 seats to NDP 124?

Traditionally, in a tie, the incumbent gets first crack at forming a government. Historically, in either of the scenarios you posited, the Tories would form government and try to bribe other parties to get their bills passed. Eventually they'd fail, the government would fall and there would be another election.

However, the most likely situation today would have the NDP & Liberals working out some sort of arrangement (either a coalition or something less formal).

I don't think Harper is the type of person who will accept such a result as a loss for him quite so easily. In the final week before the vote as the polls make these indications, he would be relentlessly attacking the NDP as the Bolsheviks reincarnated and Mulcair as Lenin's illegitimate great-grandson, while making noises about how the Liberals have a storied place in Canada's history and how Justin Trudeau himself isn't too bad a guy, and sending feelers out to the Liberal Party.

After the vote, he'll try in vain to somehow convince the Liberals to support his throne speech, as long as he - and he alone - remains leader. And only after that fails, will he grudgingly resign, convinced he lost because of the Liberals' refusal to support him and not because of the election itself.

But, far more likely, is enough anti-Harper voters will move towards the party with more momentum during the campaign, giving it a strong mandate on its own.

Harper will resign if he gets anything less than another majority, he would've done same in 2011. I doubt the opposition parties will be more friendly to Kenney or Moore than they would Harper, and at any rate a leadership process + voter considerations means opposition would want to vote down a Throne Speech as easiest route. If Harper gets a plurality, that is.

Given Harper's sheer dominance of his own party, I don't see it remaining cohesive after he steps down. And if the defeat is particularly devastating (i.e. <25% of the national vote) then the party is definitely set for open civil war. The worst part is that all the most promising contenders in the leadership race have already resigned. Ironically, Jim Prentice would be an excellent candidate had he not single-handedly destroyed the Alberta PC Party.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder if the NDP can do better than they're polling by picking up some Green votes.

[DC Al Fine]

I think talk of Tory civil war is wishful thinking on the left's part. Jason Kenny will probably win the next leadership convention in a comfortably dull fashion.

[2952-0-0]

There definitely will be plenty of soul-searching about why the "Unite the Right" movement, originally intended to cement itself as Canada's dominant governing party, ended up with its worst result since confederation (and even now it's already polling close to that dubious level). Some will claim it's because Harper moved too far to the right, while others blame Harper for becoming opportunist and straying from the party values. And inevitably this will lead to a blame game.

In any case, whomever is the new leader would be wise not to force an early election (assuming there's no majority). Canadians tend to take a dim view of parties who force early elections just 'cus. And the third party is extremely unlikely to allow this to happen given that antipathy towards Harper will be strong for years to time (unless the governing party was found to have eaten kittens and puppies, or something).

[Hatman 🍁]

Has everyone just decided not to poll Forces et Démocratie?

I've mentioned this a few times at work, but the thing is, "other" isn't even polling that high in Quebec. They *may* have a shot at their leader's seat, but nowhere else at the moment.

[MaxQue]

Has everyone just decided not to poll Forces et Démocratie?

I've mentioned this a few times at work, but the thing is, "other" isn't even polling that high in Quebec. They *may* have a shot at their leader's seat, but nowhere else at the moment.

I would be very surprised if he wins. Elisabeth May has more coverage than him, here, in Québec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has everyone just decided not to poll Forces et Démocratie?

I've mentioned this a few times at work, but the thing is, "other" isn't even polling that high in Quebec. They *may* have a shot at their leader's seat, but nowhere else at the moment.

I would be very surprised if he wins. Elisabeth May has more coverage than him, here, in Québec.

I'd be surprised too. There was a dubious poll of his riding showing him winning, so there's that!

I think talk of Tory civil war is wishful thinking on the left's part. Jason Kenny will probably win the next leadership convention in a comfortably dull fashion.

Can you imagine that eunuch as Prime Minister?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Any high-profile indies running?

[Hatman 🍁]

Any high-profile indies running?

Brent Rathgeber, and a few other MPs booted from their caucuses.

[Holmes]

I wonder if the NDP can win Edmonton-St. Albert if the city votes similarly to how it did provincially.

[King of Kensington]

Time to start pondering who will replace Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal Party.   Scott Brison?  Dominic Le Blanc?  Joyce Murray?  Someone from the Ontario Liberal caucus?

[Boston Bread]

Time to start pondering who will replace Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal Party.   Scott Brison?  Dominic Le Blanc?  Joyce Murray?  Someone from the Ontario Liberal caucus?

It would be a mistake for the LPC to continuously purge leaders like that. If they are a distant 3rd, they need to accept their position and start giving their leaders more room for failure as the NDP usually does. The biggest criticism of Trudeau is inexperience, so letting him stay on might eventually result in better leadership.

[Holmes]

Unless Trudeau gets under 19% of the vote, I don't think he should be replaced.

[You kip if you want to...]

What's actually caused Orange Crush Mark II?

[lilTommy]

What's actually caused Orange Crush Mark II?

The NDP vote has been slowly trending up till now creeping back up to the low to mid-20% mark since this year... I think that is part to Trudeau's honeymoon starting to end, overall good-decent NDP news, and policy releases. But the party was still in a solid third... up until Alberta. The NDP win in Alberta pushed to solidify the NDPs numbers in Quebec (agree or disagree, after the Alberta election the NDP has been solidly polling first, not neck&neck with the Liberals). Generally very good coverage of the NDP in Ontario (anti-Privatization of Hydro is very popular along with Horwath the provincial leader personally polling better) has all started to culminate in conjunction with very bad Liberal federal decisions (supporting C51 in particular, and their finance policy just not going over as well as it should have).
It's not one thing, it's a culmination of a few things (both done by the NDP and by the Liberals/CPC), I would say both federally and provincially in key regions that is helping the NDP.  Lets hope it lasts

[Hatman 🍁]

Time to start pondering who will replace Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal Party.   Scott Brison?  Dominic Le Blanc?  Joyce Murray?  Someone from the Ontario Liberal caucus?

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.