Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP could win Sarnia-Lambton and Bay of Quinte.
The Liberals could also win Bay of Quinte.

[DL]

Are there are any seats held by the Ontario PCs that the federal Tories could really lose - besides Nipissing perhaps?

Perhaps Chatham-Kent-Essex? Sarnia-Lambton?

[lilTommy]

Are there are any seats held by the Ontario PCs that the federal Tories could really lose - besides Nipissing perhaps?

Perhaps Chatham-Kent-Essex? Sarnia-Lambton?

Most of SWON I'd say... Perth-Wellington, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Oxford, Chatham-Kent-Essex and Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Brantford-Brant.

[Boston Bread]

Essex and Brantford-Brant aren't PC though.
On top of what others have said I would add Huron-Bruce.

[RogueBeaver]

Benoit retiring.

[Holmes]

Cool.

Nanos still providing us with the most useless polling data known to man.

[Hatman 🍁]

Benoit retiring.

No surprise, he lost the game of musical chairs. Good riddance, anyways.

[adma]

Angus Reid's Ontario numbers seem more apt to me.  As nice as it is to think that ridings like Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Chatham-Kent-Essex and Elgin-Middlesex-London are "leaning NDP" - I don't think the Tories are under 30% in Ontario.

Are there are any seats held by the Ontario PCs that the federal Tories could really lose - besides Nipissing perhaps?

Of those four, CKE's likeliest--after all, provincially, the ONDP got 31.1% vs Rick Nicholls' 37.8% last year...

[adma]

Essex and Brantford-Brant aren't PC though.

Don't confuse Essex with CKE.

[King of Kensington]

You guys really think the federal Tories are likely to do worse than Hudak in southwestern Ontario?  I think he came close to hitting the floor in the province.

[adma]

You guys really think the federal Tories are likely to do worse than Hudak in southwestern Ontario?  I think he came close to hitting the floor in the province.

Depends on how the chips may fall.  After all, province-wide, the NDP gaining seats like Sarnia-Lambton and CKE could be counteracted by the Cons holding more of its 416 fortress, thanks to Grit collapse and weak NDP infrastructure...

[Boston Bread]

Essex and Brantford-Brant aren't PC though.

Don't confuse Essex with CKE.

For the record, I was responding to lil Tommy's suggestion of Essex:

Most of SWON I'd say... Perth-Wellington, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Oxford, Chatham-Kent-Essex and Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Brantford-Brant.

If the NDP surges, it will be stronger in SWON than in the 905. So we could see PC seats fall while OLP seats stay CPC in places like Halton, Newmarket.

Imagine how badly Hudak would have done if the OLP was actually popular...

[Hatman 🍁]

You guys really think the federal Tories are likely to do worse than Hudak in southwestern Ontario?  I think he came close to hitting the floor in the province.

Sarnia-Lambton has been a bellwether since 1963, so it is definitely an NDP target.

[Smid]

Liberal candidate parts Facebook joke about domestic violence: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/17/liberal-candidate-deletes-domestic-abuse-joke-after-conservatives-attack/

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Apparently Trudeau wants to abolish FPTP, is that getting any play there?

[Boston Bread]

Apparently Trudeau wants to abolish FPTP, is that getting any play there?

So does Mulcair and May. But Liberal plan is IRV and NDP plan MMP. Trudeau actually voted against MMP earlier this year.

[DC Al Fine]

Apparently Trudeau wants to abolish FPTP, is that getting any play there?

So does Mulcair and May. But Liberal plan is IRV and NDP plan MMP. Trudeau actually voted against MMP earlier this year.

Ugh. IRV is worse than FPTP.

[Poirot]

Green party opened their Quebec office. It hopes to elect MPs on the opposition to transportation of oil by rail cars and pipeline. Claims to be the only national party to fight pipelines.

I think the Bloc will try to use the Energy East proposed pipeline against the NDP if they support it. It must not be very popular with the progressives, pro-environment. The PQ is against it and I imagine Québec solidaire the same.  

[Boston Bread]

Ugh. IRV is worse than FPTP.

Not ideal but I find it much better than FPTP since there is no incentive to vote against your first option and all votes have the option to have their vote "count" (by that I mean finding its way into the top two candidates). How is it worse?

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently Trudeau wants to abolish FPTP, is that getting any play there?

So does Mulcair and May. But Liberal plan is IRV and NDP plan MMP. Trudeau actually voted against MMP earlier this year.

Ugh. IRV is worse than FPTP.

Uh, the only thing worse than FPTP is block voting.

[DL]

Green party opened their Quebec office. It hopes to elect MPs on the opposition to transportation of oil by rail cars and pipeline. Claims to be the only national party to fight pipelines.

I think the Bloc will try to use the Energy East proposed pipeline against the NDP if they support it. It must not be very popular with the progressives, pro-environment. The PQ is against it and I imagine Québec solidaire the same.  

The PQ was for it when they were in power, now it's like if the NDP says black they have to say white...Peladeau flubbed his lines yesterday saying that it was "simplistic" to oppose Energy East then backtracked when told he had contradicted Duceppe and accidentally agreed with the Liberals and NDP

[DL]

Latest Forum has a clear NDP lead
NDP 34%
LPC 28%
CPC 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/299/conservatives-liberals-tied-for-second/

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Latest Forum has a clear NDP lead
NDP 34%
LPC 28%
CPC 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/299/conservatives-liberals-tied-for-second/

lol

EDIT: If that is the actual result than the CPC are back to where REFFOOOOOOORM the Canadian Alliance under Stockwell Day were in 2000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well I think we can now be pretty sure that This Government Is In Trouble. Which is not the same as saying that it is doomed, alas.

[Boston Bread]

Latest Forum has a clear NDP lead
NDP 34%
LPC 28%
CPC 26%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/299/conservatives-liberals-tied-for-second/

lol Quebec is the NDP's worst region in that poll, at 31%. Yes, that means they are over 31% in every other region.